Member Info for Nuwanda

The one where I have a £100k 1% fixed rate, interest only, mortgage, where I have to pat £83 per months and a £100k 5.6% tax free ISA paying me £466.66 interest per month.

From a low base, these differentials are so much bigger than the high rates we saw back in the day. 7% to 14% was a 50% increase. 1% to 5% is 500% increase. It's the generation that have only ever known cheap money (powered by the unsustainable alchemy of QE) that have been caught out.

But there is HUGE value in LBG with a new record days Buyback volume - it's a long game, like TW et al were.

Https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/who-we-are/working-with-suppliers/collaborating-with-fintechs.html

With AI, I have a conflict of interest.

As for keeping up? I'll stop and smell the roses - thank you though.

THis adds ro Lloyds EXISTING Fintech proposition (are you aware of Innovation Sandbox?). As for AI? Have you done any research?. And a comparison to Woolworths is laughable. It's footfall was one of the best, it ran out of funding. Lloyds is awash with cash. Also the so called 'challenger banks' are great, but an't offer the range of Corporate Services that traditional banks needs. Finally, Lloyds being domestic focused is a USP. In a global meltdown, their exposure is negligible. It's a boring bank, and boring is good. I've very happy with my banking and commercial relationship with them.

For amusment, to achivee last years 4,528,731,591 share buy back, the balance of shares would need to be bought back at an average of 38.654

Well, UBS going for full on 'LLOYBall' today, and knocking it out of the park again, following it's 2nd biggest buying day, with it's biggest yet. UBS knows value when it sees it!

To achieve a 4.0bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 59.561

To achieve a 4.1bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 54.033

To achieve a 4.2bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 49.445

To achieve a 4.3bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 45.574

Ramvo

You know if LBG shuts its doors and clsoes today, shareholders will still get more back than the current share price; even in a fire sales of assest.

The likes of Aldermore are specilaist lenders and have 9% mortgages for a reason. These specialist lenders have their place (I have used them to secure a BTL mortgae on an a ex social housing flat in a block, in London, with a great HMO rental to more than cover the repayments. I have more overseas demand than rooms to let, with a full third party rental guarantee). But anyone using these Specilaist lenders needs to know what they are doing and/or buying, and they are not lenders that compete with the likes of Lloyds.

We have to compare Apples with Apples.

Just remember that banks are majority owned by institutional investors (mostly pension funds) and the Government will need private pensions to be well funded, or they'll need to increase the state pension. So a windfall tax will just come back and hurt public funds (but governments don't do a lot of long term thinking; especailly if they adopt a torched earth policy if they see themselves going out of power). IMHO

Long terms funds are always hedged - just as they are today.

The argument could be that the wider margin is good prudence for defaults (which the accrue for out of this extra margin) not to impact the balance sheet. But, in reality, with the low risk of any default ending up in a loss (residential, not commercial property), it's a place to hide profits.

As for Commerciual property, so much is now being converted into flats etc and increasing it's value. A great way for a bank to get a better return on it's cash.

LLoyds overall LTV mortgage exposure isn't enough to put a dent in the ship, let alone a hole. It remains a great long term hold for me, paying a good dividend yeild (which also benefits pension funds).

To be LLOY is like the constonation in The Big Short (a true storey), when the bet against the mortgage market didn't start to yeild whicht defied all logic. Then, it hit a tipping point, and BOOM! You just have to hold your nerve with LLOY, as it will come good, AND pay healthy dividends. I have no issue in being in a minority.

UBS will go big today, again.

The mortgage market is experiencing the Minsky Effect in slow motions, as fixed rates mortgages come to an end at different times.

Some listened/saw if coming (last autumn) and took action; even paying early terminations to lock in cheap rates whilst they could. Most (not all) people has enough disposable income to adjust spending accordingly.

Looking at the price movements you can start to see how it's calibrated now - very very clever.

A suppressed share price is good for Lloyds (and long term shareholders) ATM. The only alchemy is keeping the price this low, this lomg, given the NAV. Suspect interest rate hike will push the price lower (and profits - dividends and buybacks - higher). People will look back on this and ask, "how did they pull it off?"

To achieve a 4.0bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 57.102

To achieve a 4.1bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 52.565

To achieve a 4.2bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 48.695

To achieve a 4.3bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 45.357

It's also not a linear relationship between interest rates on loans and interest rates on savings. Much depends on the risk profile, which is why we have a credit score and don't all get the same rate on loans.

That said, my savings are not with my traditional bank, as their savings interest rates are very poor.

There is now an 11.761p gap between the closing price, on Friday, and the average price needed to cancel 4bn shares. So, 2/3rd's of the way through, I'd be pretty confident that that's at the lower end of expectation, and ahead of expectation on announcement. Any increment cancelled in excess of 4bn is an extra bonus. But it won't hit the 4.528bn cancelled last year, which is a tiny green shoot of a share heading in the right direction. IMHO.

To achieve a 4.0bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 56.806

To achieve a 4.1bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 52.394

To achieve a 4.2bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 48.618

To achieve a 4.3bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 45.350

Chid,

Your analysis has merit, but if you played out the scenario you outline, then it would have been race to the bottom, whatever the economic conditions. In my opinion, simplistically, we have reached (are reaching) the 'Minsky Moment' that sees the weak fail as they could only artificially survive on cheap money. The strong then prevail.

As the price has gone up and down, clearly other factors come into play. Whilst the ride will be rough, the same will be true of investors (especially non-retail) the weak will have crystallise a loss, the strong will have capacity to ride out the storm and see the long term benefits of profits.

Just my view. I am sure there will be others.

To achieve a 4.0bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 55.466

To achieve a 4.1bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 51.612

To achieve a 4.2bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 48.260

To achieve a 4.3bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 45.316

To achieve a 4.0bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 54.766

To achieve a 4.1bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 51.205

To achieve a 4.2bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 48.079

To achieve a 4.3bn share buy back, the balance of shares need to be bought at an average of 45.313