Member Info for Nthoftheriver

Like everyone else, I expect dilution as the Araguia funding is likely to be based on 60-65% Debt to 35-40% Equity. Assuming it goes to plan we will be a lot higher in our overall Mcap after finance deal is done and funders/institutional players are on board.

I suppose to me it’s how we deal with Vermelho. As at today’s price Vermelho is worth zilch. (We had a bigger MCap before we had Vermelho). So any new equity player will get that thrown in for free if we see dilution at the current SP. So I expect the raise to be at least in the range of 7-10p. Ideally some news or way to not give away Vermelho on the cheap is sorted in the funding deal. Maybe as has been said if Vermelho is involved the equity raise may well be 10-20p. But we are just going to have to wait on that it seems. (All very frustrating, but maybe Elon’s comments have juiced the appeal for Vermelho).

Sorry that was the twitter link. Here is the direct link from the tweet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-07-30/top-tech-investor-anderson-more-regulation-may-spur-innovation-video

https://twitter.com/bailliegifford/status/1290238505726205952?s=21

found this worth a listen.

DJ,

Good set of thoughts there.

I genuinely hope you’re wrong though on the worst case scenario of another year in purgatory. With the quality of the assets and projected nickel price even over the next year, you have wonder how we couldn’t get a deal done this year.

To me, Ms Septana Dorri is a key player on Vermelho. She is from Xstrata Nickel and tasked with expressly looking at ‘identification and pursuit of external growth opportunities’. So a delay in getting the deal on Araguaia might be as you say tied to Vermelho being involved.

August is going to be an interesting month. So took the opportunity to add a small amount this week to the ISA and SIPP. 200K shares, but these are not long term hold, more an opportunity on a deal being sorted in the next few months. But then I’ve said that before. Lol.

Tend to agree Luke.

Problem is, having Glencore, Teck, Orion and to some extent Vale knowing what we have means we don’t need push the PR boat out. Nice though it is, I wouldn’t mind a bit if JM did blow the horn out loud now and then, as all the selling by large holders (for whatever reason) hasn’t helped with the SP or sentiment.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3943997/Nickel-shortage-likely-as-prices-stay-below-incentive-levels-Sherritt-says.html

5M odd shares traded (£180K) and they can kick the SP down by 5.5%. Lol.

Soon be August.

Currently just over $13960.

All good but just when you think Nickel rise should be beneficial on the SP, we’ve still got a seller, possibly drip feeding them into the market to dent any progress. Just can’t seem to get a break at the moment.

Good to see Nickel has been holding above $13,700 most of the week. Currently $13,805. Especially as Araguaia is base case for phase 1 is $14,000.

Well done to those buying more here. (Must admits tempted myself, if some of my other shares play ball). Hopefully we will see the SP go through the 4p zone and upwards in August.

I sometimes wonder if it’s just because we are on AIM. Australia or Canada seem to have a lot more (aware) commodities investors, so I think companies just get a lot more investor interest. Here we have a lot of traders chasing headlines. Look at the rush into biotech Covid stocks. Doubt you’ll find a lot of peeps there who actually understand the science behind the company they are buying, but are buying the momentum. Just have to wait our turn it would seem.

Reckon any large partner would want a bigger capacity mine. Our PFS is a smaller optimised option. Probably done to demonstrate potential and attract attention, not really a genuine attempt to push on with a BFS. So it’s going to be up to our partner to set the pace and that still a few years to get the BFS, permits & FEED sorted. But hey if Elon is the incentive then maybe it’s easier to up the progress.

Getting very interesting, especially if Canada Nickel et al are grabbing headlines. Our Tier 1 asset is looking attractive. Hopefully Septana is on the case.

Sounds like COVID gave them an out and a way to write down some costs. Reckon they will bring it back when the Nickel price moves up sufficiently. What number that will be is anyone’s guess. But I think there will be a few other mines doing similar if they can. Dilemma I suppose is some money coming in is better than nothing, even if it’s loss making, helps the overall Company P&L.

Don’t know if CAD / GBP exchange rates account for some of the price difference.

Think the TSX shares are thinly traded so might just be it moves a lot more on small volumes. But 71% is way beyond what I would have that Could be explained by low volume, so who knows.

Thanks AIMtodeath, don’t have L2 so never understand what is a real buy or sell. Just hope we can shot of all this messing around and start the rise up.

.. Market diversity demands different battery chemistries but nickel-rich cells to hold dominant position..

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3943263/WEBINAR-Market-diversity-demands-different-battery-chemistries-but-nickel-rich-cells-to-hold-dominant.html

You’ll not ..

Having a good on posts,lol.

Well you’re not hear any arguments from Luke.

Should have said ...even if Vermelho isn’t part of the Araguaia finance deal...

Wasarunner,

Way things are going on the EV front reckon the day of zero value for Vermelho are limited. If we hear news on Araguia finance, then I reckon we will hit a lot of Institutional/fund managers radar and even if Vermelho is part of the financial deal, it’s going to start to added to HZM Mcap. If not we may well see someone bid for us before things really take off.

Anyways if Nickel plays ball we might not make Christmas. (Well I can dream can’t I).