focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
What's your guess Minor Miner on the multiple by end Q1 2023?
TW.G in 2 years it will be further down the curve from developer to producer so you would expect that it trades on less discount (unless that is already the stage the comparator companies you talk about are at).
What royalty is RR on? Cant find it ... any guess at how much it could be in aggregate over what period?
He my be mourning Suella getting bumped. Some may say his support there indicates a scant connection with the real World.
From ABs Twitter this evening.... [13 July]
"...But @ABell2019
told us yesterday he’s looking at shoes in Kinshasa, and preparing for a PressCon today… what happened?!"
Andrew_Bell2019
@ABell2019 Replying to @SandyPa60500762@RRR_RedRock
"a) what happened to the shoes? b) it's still today but I think photographers may have gone to bed. Pity."
Is the "Pity" because a deal has actually been inked? We shall see. 7:04 RNS??
Guessing Spec ...99 that he gets about 1/3rd of what we all hoped and some future ... never never ... opportunity. We shall see but have limited faith in him delivering a knockout blow.
On a deal of this type it really is not the last minute haggling to get a sweeter deal. There are so many interconnected parts its tidying up the paperwork. If there is still haggling about the nature of the deal it's dead in the water.
You cant just change terms across 6 agreements wiht a dozen different parties like that.
It really should be down to the signatures several days ago.
I struggle to find a valuation which does not get me into the £15m - £50m range.
If you just took cash, shares, cash due shortly you get towards £9m. Add Star Zinc revenue stream and you push well into the £m teens. You get everything else for free. I just bung a bit more in the bottom drawer each month at these levels.
Biggest risk is CB running out of road - even then he seems to have good people for each project. DYOR Not advice.
I felt the RNS was a bit lukewarm if you calibrate against Colin's normal language. However if you take: cash; liquid shares; expected cash; royalty flow and projects i feel that downside is very [!!!] limited and upside is 2-6x.
I am just using this window to buy a few more each month. Value usually outs in the end. DYOR.
Really positive that funders sit in same room with MOM as it cuts down on options for bull****.
Good that “Receiving a positive comprehensive independent report on safety conditions and recommendations”. Good that see no material changes to costs (given current environment).
But Harry hardly sounds like a man who understands how things slot together and the bit about all parties signing an umbrella agreement sounds worryingly wooly at this stage; I would really expect them to be on the short strokes on a big pile of documents with multiple parties.
I think those shares have warrants attached (1.6p if i remember correctly). It that is the case you are paying 0.8p for a share plus a warrant - so as a rational investor you may still buy down to somewhere between 0.65p and 0.725p. Probably academic but you did ask.
My guess (and that's where we are at) is "You've got until 31st March to get the ink on the paper or it's adios." It's past the investment stage and now a gamble. If you have a few quid spare the odds are decent (funding = x4, licence lost x0.5) at say 50:50 but it's not one for the house or pension!
However p*ssed off you are with management and the process not sure why anyone wanting to get their money back (or even make some) would vote against the placing. If you do the creditors could, as i see it, demand repayment (their loans were i think due at end of November). Like it or not no small shareholder will gain from a fire sale of assets - you are almost certainly looking at a total wipeout, rather than a possibility of success.
As for removing Adams ... does anyone really think someone can march in at this late? stage and pick up the relationships at the drop of a hat as effectively.
Given what folks are saying here today I may get slayed for this ... But.
We all knew the balance sheet was trashed. There was a danger the creditors could have insisted on repayment - and flogged off what assets there are. I assume to have buried £6m into the co they have at least taken a close look at it.
We now have a company with a tidied up balance sheet, an improving position in Ethiopia and Saudi looking very positive. OK there is a 30% chance the whole thing goes south - but if a 40% chance they properly progress Saudi and a 30% chance they progress both it looks an interesting gamble for a SMALL chunk of change. I would not bet my pension on it.
It is per year - "The technical study to PFS level demonstrated projected average gold production of 25-30koz/yr over a life of mine of 15 years (extendable to 25 years with inclusion of Inferred Mineral Resources), processing approximately 6Mt of tailings per annum during steady state production. "
Problem is lenders are committing for 5-10 years. They are already at the limit of their risk appetite (hence the trouble getting this far). Possibility of a civil war is not going to help. Not sure if much of funding is from outside Ethiopia but if it is this will really put in in doubt. You may struggle to take the view that if there is a civil war the winners will like us. Why when there are plenty of other places to invest. I think most of funding was from inside Ethiopia but if one brick falls the whole show falls to pieces. A complex deal has helped them get large funding compared to size of company but the more inter pendency you have the more risk of it all falling over.
There is also the problem that the bridge funders, even if shareholders, may say enough is enough. Not sure if they have security but may take view we can get our funds back from the Saudi opportunity alone in due course.
Then you have the problem if Ethiopia goes south the Saudi's may manufacture a breach and look to work with someone else.
Ta. Nice to understand. Agree about the sideshow. More interested in fundamentals but still like to know. Thanks
Thanks. How come the last trade shows at 17:18 - is that between market makers? [My understanding is more around financials, management and funding aspects of a co than the nicieties of trading!)
Hi TMS. Always keen to learn - even if it does make me look thick at times. What are 100 codes, where do you find them and what do they mean?