Thanks ymas I wasn't being spikey, I just feel the market is over valuing a $10 a month music contract versus a $1000 repeat phone sale. There is also a lot more competition in the space they're moving in to - Netflix slowing down massively now is an example. I don't get too bogged down with individual US stocks, I just read up on them to see if my overall view of a huge bubble has any merit.
Apple are hoping that the existing iPhone subscribers will take up the slack on music/films etc. now that sales are falling significantly. They're under price pressure too and are having to sell them cheaper. They don't even really want to report on iPhone numbers which says it all.
I've been looking in vain for a short FANG but can't find one. Apple will be less than $200 per share by christmas - can we have a friendly charity bet if you're convinced I'm wrong.
Surrey - a bubble pure and simple - look at the historical and current P/E's. Apple now over 20 again with falling iPhone sales which has been it's main driver.
The most hated bull run in history, lets see what happens if companies only hit and not exceed their earnings targets in the next few weeks. I just short the S&P as there is little point shorting all 3 when I could just triple my bet.
It's a partial deal, not the big one that Trump insisted was the only game in town - just a few days ago.
tariffs likely to remain, just not increased - and it's a month away from signing. You've got the fed and results before then. I'm not long on anything again now, I'd rather take the risk of losing a bit of profit than get greedy when were back at the top of the trading range.
FWIW I think metro will get to £5 but I think it 6/4 on that they'll revisit the lows first. The 10% short is not a good sign, these boys have a different type of lunchtime to us.
ftse great value on an historical p/e. Currency obviously the key to that at the moment though, a good deal will more likely drop the market initially, which is why it was rising on the threat of no deal. 80% of revenue comes from other currencies. uk focused banks the exception as we saw yesterday.
Worried about a US sell off which will bring us down with it, it's when not if - but could still be 12 months for a big correction. Easy trades at these levels if they're done incrementally though, what will push the S&P up to 3300 - absolutely nothing that I can see. 2700, lots of headwinds to get it there.
Time will tell but the real money will be made when it's cheaper.
Agree branson, it’s risky and would likely need to involve spread-betting which I haven’t got the discipline for. If you believe in the trade and the overvalued market then you can short the S&P (1 - 3x) on an ETF. And/or go long on the vix also via an ETF. You can set your bet easily and at levels that suit your risk profile and your budget. It’s not advice but when the market looks this toppy it’s only the length of time that differs before the trades come back my way.
The vix is very bouncy mind so tread cautiously and learn how it moves before you get too brave.
If Apple drops 30% which it did last year then it takes a few hundred billion dollars out of the index - and that’s just one share.
Earnings season ahead, will Apple and everyone else surprise on the upside - place your bets.