Member Info for notgreedy

Spot on. There is last card to play in this pyramid game and that is Japanese stile 35-40 year mortgage (currently available) that can be passed onto and enslave second generation. If it is to last beyond next election ,BoE base rate will have to follow that of Japan. If not your scenario , of riots, is realistic and most likely outcome.

Foxt opened 5 new branches in 2014. Bad idea in declining market IMO , not regrouping you would expect from visionary business. Cynical repurchase of shares by foxt trust SAYE scheme summons foxt up for me. Not only they have exceptionally nigh staff turnover , but they had to repurchase their own shares at the hight? Most profit is to go on divi and tax. After that there will be very little left in a kitty. Foxt can not shrink business fast enough to cach up with changes with the market. Nav, by their estimate, about 135m? Imo foxt would have to sell more shares hor some form kind of financing put in place next year or even this year. Remember, foxt just paid off loans and chose perfect time to list hence got valued at about £750 m(£2.20 ipo sp). Sp drop to half of today's price ,by this time next year,nwould not surprise me. Foxt is no utility that you must use(water, gas elect....) does not produce anything, talks like used car salesman on coke and offers you cappuccino. Foxt proudly added in h1 report, average sale price achieved up by £75k or about 6.5%.has your salary gone up by at least that much? There is pyramid (cycles at best) in every industry,nothing goes up only. Last 12 months was best foxt ever had. You should ask your self, what is the likelihood that will continue and for how long if it is to continue. Estate agents are part of dying out feudalistic setup that taxes and diverts ones limited reasorses into hands of already well-of. Zoopla and Rightmove would no alow private sale on their sight, why? As to foreign money coming in, yes it did a lot when £-€ was 1.05 . At 1.25 - and Europe in recession, thet is where money is going now. With online agents rise, I think high street agents will despair within years.general retailers have suffered greatly with rise of online shopping (Amazon ). Where is savings to be made people will look mfor it. On, say, below average price achieved by foxt of 550k 3% is 16.5k and online agent would cost you about£500 . Savings of £16k not enough? Of course I could be wrong

If I'm not to be negative and call for rerating, given that ipo sp -valuation was not a bargin, cost to remain the same and profit to decrease by modest 10% and greed to out-way fear and panic selling , I would go for around 200p by year end. I could be wrong and foxt could follow unrealistic valuations of asos , OCDO and few others, for a while yet. Why would you tup sp on about 325p?

sentiment, based on 'good' numbers and a lot of hope those will continue for a long time, had taken this sp above ipo level. now that doubts about continuation of same numbers are expressed by bod and a pinch of reality is driving sp towards next 6-12 target. HMG is talking down house prices in London, restricking - puting brakes on lending, numbers of salles-new rents are foling, all segments of foxt business will be affected. Sentiment is about what is future more likely to bring to the business. imo past resaults are already priced in current sp and future is not that orange for foxt any more for all the reasons I mentioned previously. good luck to you JM and all others.

If you look into foxt figures, you will see income from renting is going down. Income from sales will go down to, foxt prepared us for it in its statement . Income from mortgage brokerage will go down. not just because new customers will figure out that £2 k + is to much for the service competing to most indipendent mortgage brokers of £500 if one can not be bothered to go online and find best mortgage him- re self , but because lending has dried out. Lenders are squeezed between regulator for responsible lending, bad loans Legacy, greed to keep cheap money from BoE and pump up tier ratio and obvious unsustainable house price to wages ratio. Before posting this, I called 17agents in London for opinion. Thay all said, it is buyers (cash)market and the lending is the biggest problem at current prices. Two of those ,honest , told me ( when I was inquiring from buyers prospective ) I could save 10% if I wait for a year, meaning do nothing since prices have gone in reversal . buyers with financing in place are in no hurry to buy and lenders are nocking down valuations not to be cote with bad loans again. 3 of those also pointed out that thay have more property on their books than buyers, and I should be ''realistic'' about asking price ( when I was enquiring as a new seller).

I have a friend who had his house( north London ) on the market with foxt since April. He wasn't happy with them because they nagged him to drop asking price(which foxt recommended to get him on their books) 3 times. He wasn't upset but did not appreciate being told pokies. In July he switched to online agent and is about to exchange for a tad more than last foxt price. My friend is not bothered to much about price achieved for his property (downsized ) but feels foxt handled things unprofessional. Savings he made switching to online agent(£550 as supposed to 2-3% foxt asked him for) is massive. He also told me 4 buyers ( 2 from foxt) could not secure lending. He feels lucky if he is to sell now because local agents told him that situation on the market is '' as if somebody has turned the tap off completely '' . It is possible that last year phenomenal rise in house prices( and foxt profits ) will not be repeated any time soon , especially if fear of rate rises and seemingly frozen London market is to continue. Gla

Halo

Iis can't sell fast enough.

I call it just a beginning . Wouldn't be surprise to see sp half in next few weeks. Fall you are talking about is despite divi date and spec divi coming up soon, what means punters will take what they can now, knowing sp will drop more than divi and spec divi combined. You could guess which way will sp go when no more divi to come.

From next week, after divi+ spec divi, I expect rapid decline in sp.

IMO seriously overvalud. Rise in online ea will sink foxt to penny share, not to mention bad practise they deploy to get stock on their books( giving to high price to sellers only to tell them price is to high). That was ok till April , sellers maket, but no more. As to Chinese buying in London , that is East London mainly, where foxt has no or very smal presence., and yes affordability is finally kicking in. Gla

I think you r right. But than again, from same basket, asos OCDO and few others still mentain ridiculous valuation. Je. Not is not cheep to short, big margine required, but I think option to short it might soon be closed. Gla

See my previous comments. Also some of US politicians are advocating change in rules of engagement ( tax) gl.

I'm good, hope you are to. We simes to always agree on a workings of monetary illusion. Sometimes I take a viu that sharada will take a bit longer to unravel and I get in shares smelling the air prior to it. I see retailers same, with exception of the most unlinked supermarket . Generally I have gone negative (Dec. futures) on many including this one,will restart (most likely) shorting banks and builders in Aug. I agree that rio is approaching shorting position, just bare in mind Fe=$. If $ is to begin to be recognise for what it is we will gett another Irq., Afgan.,Libya , Ukrain...... Kosmic cyclise continue. Gl

Halo Seifert, I went short here,I recon sp will drop below 300 today or tomorrow for the reasons you mentioned. Btw have you had a look at glen lately. I could do with your gloomy input and somber analysis there lol.gl

Yes shares and cash. Not all shareholders will want shares of AV and many, I guess, will take what they can in case deal doesn't go through for what ever reason. If one can take £2-£10 or even more per share now, why wait for 4-5 months for a extra £1-£2 per share and risking losing if deal collapses IMO.

Gamblier01, vgas is very similar to exi.

on Friday, I hope I would be wrong in thinking that £51 will not be reached any time soon. Still few things could go wrong here and no all cash offer will have some weight . I'm thinking of rounding up here tomorrow what ever the sp will be, IMO only brave and those who know deal will be done as agreed, could expect to get a sniff of £52 by the end of the year. Still SHP has given us excellent return in last few weeks( even better to longer term investors). Gla

and nobody around? I reckon shp might revisit £50 + today. Opinions ?

Wish you all good morning. I was thinking of popping back in peg and when should I do it. Gr-Wal, mike all other amigos, have you done some top slicing , recently ?