Member Info for nojhead

I dont think its such a threat personally, - assuming my understanding is correct - the issue with hydrogen is the transportation. you can extract raw hydrogen all you want but transporting that hydrogen, as raw hydrogen is the issue.

this is why hydrogen has typically used electrolysis as water is easy to transport, but it is far less hydrogen dense than ammonia.

to make ammonia you still need hydrogen in the first place (excluding waste grade ammonia which is a by-product of many chemical engineering processes, which i believe previously we had confirmation we could use in out system also)

the advantage of ammonia is that it contains far more hydrogen than water - reducing transport costs substantially.

and the cracking of the ammonia with the H-Pow system is far more energy efficient than electrolysis, reducing the cost to extract the hydrogen at the point of need.

underground cheep hydrogen, just means cheep hydrogen to make ammonia cheaper which reduces our £/KWH even more.

Just to point out the obvious logic point - not saying this is true, there could indeed be no news, but its what i would do if i had news the day after a company name change.

it makes more sense to hold off to make sure the impact isn't diluted by people who are still looking at the wrong company page, not everyone reads the RNS feed daily, not everyone checks up on every stock they own daily. give it a few days for the changes to be made (given my trading platform it still shows as AFC also, and HPOW isnt even listed as an available stock to buy yet)

its the smart move to hold off on any major news until the change is settled.

again not saying that is the case just presenting a counter argument based on logic

We expected the revenue to fall.... when they announced the manufacturing cost saving initiatives, its better than it fell than they kept selling.

if you bought a car, then the next day the dealer reduced the price of the same model by 85% you would never buy a car from that dealer again.

its short term pain for long term gain.

There's a lot of automatic buys going through, as this keeps rising (i dont see why anyone would set an automatic buy on a rising share price other than to avoid losses on a short position)

no guarantee its them but fingers crossed

Isnt the HY5 cracker up to 500kg/day?

EarEyeAM - its very possible it cant/shouldn't run at that full output all the time - often in industrial processes max output is a diminishing return.

as a hypothetical example:

say 80% output means the wear and tear on the unit would allow it to run for 5 years before needing replacement

but running at 100% you get more thermal losses and then need more energy input to achieve the same output. this could push internal components to the limit, reducing the life cycle of the unit.

its likely there will be an optimum operating capacity to maximise efficiency, output, and any unit downtime for maintenance.

it would be a good question to ask at the investor day "what is the expected daily output from the HY5 running year round?"

"you are wrong" ....the explanation "i assume"

bless you...you do try dont you

I think hydro probably is right

yesterday i was of the belief that the £10/kg was the agreed rate of "fuel as a service" (Ref: https://www.afcenergy.com/news/press-releases/new-product-launch)

i took this to mean it was a service to provide customers directly to fuel cell units as and when it is needed £10/kg delivered to site (this is my understanding of fuel as a service based on my own career)

but ICL are essentially chemical storage/exporters and upon further reading - so they will be selling the hydrogen on effectively as our storage/distributor partner, i think its likely we will sell at at least around the £10/kg mark and they sell onwards whilst handling the storage/logistics.

could we charge more - yes,

should we? - well if we want to disrupt the market, probably not the cheaper we are the more disruptive we are.

For the price of the hydrogen - i do believe £36/kg is the accurate value here

it is however true that AFC previously stated £10/kg - but this was for their HY5 cracker in a "fuel as service" for the fuel cells

obviously we have an incentive to sell fuel cells, so offering discount hydrogen for that purpose helps the fuel cell side of the business.

this does however tell us - that the profit margins on hydrogen sold as purely hydrogen at £36/kg without being plugged into a fuel cell - are quite nice margins indeed.

Frankly I've always found it a good strategy to be fearful when others are greedy. (i believe its actually a Buffett quote)

I try to operate on logic and math, so personally. the way i see it if any share rises rapidly for days on end with no news its a sign of a couple of things (again there could be more but this is all im able to think of right now)

1) the market being fickle and people buying purely out of dreams of sunshine and rainbows - im not sure if the terminology is established for this but i think of it as a micro bubble

2) a couple of insiders with a lot of capital find something out which we haven't yet - which means typically the next day (or within a week or so if any deal isn't formalised yet just in negotiation) there would be an RNS shortly to give us the news we haven't seen yet.

however i would also hastily add that currently this bubble doesn't even remotely currently apply to AFC as we aren't experiencing rapid growth for no reason, we have steady growth on the back of some very optimistic news flow- and long may that continue.

Previous high back in 2021 was around 85p

based on an agreement to manufacture with ABB - then a lot of hopes and dreams basically - if you look back at the RNS's from around then its not massively astounding news.

i think for those hoping the hype train will take this to the moon need to be diluted somewhat, Afterall the news we have had in the last 6 months is far more substantial and exciting than anything which lead to that spike (from recollection at least happy to have someone disagree and explain why im wrong)

for me the reason why we aren't sat up at that same level again is fairly simple - people have learned from past FOMO buying so are approaching with a little more scepticism.

the potential is absolutely huge, £2-3 in the next 2 years i do think is unlikely (though i would absolutely love that of course)

i think when we start seeing sales 50p is likely, when we see repeat orders from the same buyers, with testimonials about cost effectiveness and reliability is when it will start to push £1+ - but this is merely an opinion and as they say, everyone has one.

If possible would certainly be a good option. but you have to bear in mind the scale of the vehicle - excavators and dumpers are much bigger than a family car, and often the type of plant komatsu make actually come equipped with several tons of ballast weight to make them stable when lifting/transporting load.

so even if the equipment adds 500kg-1000kg to the vehicle weight - the komatsu plant wont really notice any difference at all.

that's much less applicable to a family hatchback where space is a premium also - this before factoring in an increase in cost of the vehicle (komatsu plant is already very expensive to purchase so even a few thousand extra isn't too barge of a price % increase).

HGV's however i think would be a tremendous market - one which is largely untouched by EV's currently so there is far less competition for green alternatives.

What about the energy cost and production cost and supply rate of the required ultra pure deionised water?

Also I’m fairly certain it’s been proven some time ago that the AFC cracker can run on waste grade ammonia which is produced as a byproduct of other chemical processes - meaning that not only is the ammonia essentially energy free to produce in that instance, but the producer can benefit from waste Ammonia production instead of paying to dispose of it.

The illegal was a typo - won’t let me correct it. Damn these sausage fingers

Selling based on speculators on here is illegal advised. Sell for your own reasons.

Personally I doubt fund raising will be needed, suspect we will get bulk orders and simply use down payments to fund the first batches, but even if we do another fund raise, then fund raising for production as opposed to R&D is fine its actually seen as a positive by institutional investors - hence you shouldn’t worry about the drivel posted by those who only post nonsense, best to avoid the comment board here all together to be honest and just make your own opinion from your own research.

Frankly - talking about how costs savings for the fabrication of generator are passed on to the end customer, doesn't matter too much to me, simply because even if AFC sell the generator at cost (which i actually think is a good idea initially to ramp up the scale of these in circulation), just include a licence agreement that AFC hydrogen is used as the fuel for the generator, we are all still rich.

we stand to profit on both ends but i think get the scale with the Genny's quick by selling lots of them as cheap as possible

Snork respectfully a debate is made by making points and countering them, i haven't seen you make a single counter to anything yet, you are just throwing out line after line (mostly repeated) on different threads and then when countered you ignore it and move to the next one, or resort to insults / claiming someone is a ramper.

reasoned debate is something i absolutely welcome , but those who call for debate while simultaneously actively avoiding and shying away from it...are at best odd.

It hasn't been impacted by todays news its a couple of things, firstly a big rally yesterday - clearly some news leaked and people are making a quick proffit on the buys they made yesterday (perfectly normal even if it is frustrating that its who you know not what you know that gets you looped in to the gossip chain to make a quick quid), secondly markets are fickle and the Israel situation caused shares everywhere to drop - Even Rolls Royce is down and they cater to the MOD so stand to gain from this conflict to some extent.

people are the market and people panic over news in the short term and do blanket sells- its a chance for those who are watching to buy in and catch the dip.

oil price will rise - we are a competitor to oil this will benefit us,

our cost for the new gensets is set to drop to just 15% of what it currently is - again good news for us

we produce hydrogen with much lower electricity needs than electrolysis (circa 1/5th to 1/6th of the most efficient electrolysis) - given the rise in oil price this is also good news for us as it means we place less demand on the grid for what we produce - and are better suited for renewable electricity

we have the cracker which means we can charge and profit for the fuel needed to run the gensets - an initial payment for the gen set then sustainable repeat revenue from fuel generation.

politics will be an ongoing instability with every market - this is a very good news day so even if the political instability makes this take a small hit - we are in a great position to rally when the initial panic over the escalated conflict settles down.

you unfortunately have many coming out the woodwork on every good news day who openly say they haven't held AFC, yet on good news days or big growth days always come out to throw shade (why would you even comment if you have no skin in the game - either they have far too much time on their hand or they have ulterior motives)

Anyone who knows anything knows that the markets are fickle, the first book read by many interested in investing is the intelligent investor - largely off of recommendations from warren buffet - a massive proportion of that book talks about how at times like this (panic over the escalation of war in Israel) the market is prone to over react and drop globally, not in a targeted manner - i recommend you read it.

if you apply any logic to the scenario - this will take a small hit then a rally from there.

war in the middle east - raises oil price - we aren't dependent on oil for energy

we just announced an 85% cost reduction making us much more commercially viable

we have ammonia crackers which use 1/5th the power of even the most efficient electrolysis separator.

we are primed to be a replacement for diesel which is about to price itself out of the market - even before the war escalated JW was stating that he believes in the near future we will be commercially viable compared to diesel WITHOUT government subsidy.

Clued - AFC's cracker isn't used by ITM or CWR because its AFC's cracker ..... burger king don't sell McDonald's chips either ;)

but the AFC cracker is capable of producing 1kg of hydrogen for 9.5kWh of electricity. even the theoretical minimum which isn't currently achievable for an electrolyser is 39.4kWh.

AFC's cracker outputs hydrogen quicker than other crackers available today - its a world class form of the technology. and like most crackers in chemical engineering scale likely makes it more efficient - so this new S&P 500 partner is big news because it means even lower costs. - the CEO himself without subsidies they will produce hydrogen which is commercially viable - a claim which cant be made for electrolysis, which is only viable with significant subsidy's. - the AFC cracker is also capable of fitting in a small footprint and still achieving 99.99% purity - the only other small scale cracker (that im aware of) produces just 75% purity and needs to go through additional purification to reach the 99.99% fuel grade.

For the cracker personally im not so sure we need sales.

look at the petrochemical industry who makes more money - Exxon who sell the fuel - or the people who make the equipment which converts the crude into the fuel? the fact most don't know the names of a fabricator for the equipment unless you work in the petrochemical sector or industrial heavy engineering would be your hint to the answer.

i said it when the cracker was first announced but for me this is the big industry moment. its going to be big money either way but lets see how it plays out.