Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It's because there was a late buy at 5.6p for 2,830,000.
My view is that it was a worked sell and that is indeed why the price kicked on once it had cleared.
The trade was marked at 11.161p and the spread at the time was 11.5 - 11.6, so almost certainly a sell.
If so it's good news, as was the UT at close of 323,533 at 12p.
TL
Zengas had this in his notes from the call in :
"11:00 Niger 5k production from existing discoveries then progress to 25k within the 1st 5 yrs and 50k after."
Given the already discussed geo risk of S.Sudan and the debt that would be required to finance it, I'd much prefer a smaller bite of a cake elsewhere, together with the organic growth from Niger and elsewhere within the portfolio of course.
Zengas
For those that may not have seen it in the presentation - this on the Nigeria debt re finance:
• US$371m debt facility in process of being refinanced into Naira in three tranches, with expected
closing in H1 2022.
• Anticipated structure:
• Tranche 1: Bilateral loan with infrastructure investor, 15-year tenor, 10-year
government bond rate +3.5%, currently anticipated to constitute approximately 24%
of total.
• Tranche 2: Listed Bond, 12-year tenor, pricing tbd, currently anticipated to constitute
approximately 49% of total.
• Tranche 3: Bank loan, 5-year tenor, pricing tbd, currently anticipated to constitute
approximately 27% of total.
• Given Accugas’ US$ denominated gas sales agreements, re-financing of debt into Naira is
expected to bring substantial benefits to the Group as is the tenor extension (expected to
increase loan life by an incremental 6+ years) and removal of the cash sweep structure.
• Re-financed debt would remain non-recourse to Savannah Energy plc.
• Savannah balance sheet expected to rapidly de-gear in base case macro scenario with company
free cashflow positive in all forecast periods.
robberyrob
The copy and pastes on those box displays never work very well but as you say the figures look good.
People looking for instant gratification are unsurprisingly showing their displeasure but that said the fat lady is still clearing her throat.
I believe we will see the true impact of the deal over the next 12-18 months and add in the Nigeria base, plus the Niger development and 2023 could be a bumper year. It sounds a long way off but it isn't.
robberrob
I don't know how it will paste but I've copied the relevant section of the rns apertaining to the 2022 financial guidance figures, which presumably form the base moving forward:
Existing Business
Exxon & PETRONAS Acquisitions
Total[1]
Total Revenues[2]
=US$215 million
US$381 million
=US$596 million
Opex and G&A[3]
=US$75 million
US$151 million
=US$226 million
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortisation
US$21 million + US$2.3/boe
US$26 million
US$47 million + US$2.3/boe (Nigeria)
Capital Expenditure
=US$85 million
US$30 million
=US$115 million
Trek
My reply to you yesterday at 10.35 was very much tongue in cheek.
I don't come onto these bb's to lock horns with people and accordingly I wasn't going to respond to your reply to my post.
However, in one sense, in the overall scheme of things, it doesn't really make any difference but upon reflection, in another sense, it very much does because it reinforces the point that people shouldn't take what they read on discussion forums as being gospel.
Without wishing to sound patronising, you are one of the more knowledgeable contributors to LSE, so perhaps it's even more important to make the point that everyone can make basic mistakes.
No one is contesting the definition of "descending order" but what you have failed to realise is that Paul Hill (who as original author should frankly know better) has made this elementary mistake and you have believed what he wrote, without verification.
“Currently the Top 10 in descending order are:
#acp , #AVCT , #DDDD , #KIST , #BOO , #TGR, #EML , #sng , #SAVE #AGL”
I respectfully suggest that you click on the left hand side of the table of shares in the link that you provided and all will become clear, I hope.
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalpmh/status/1474689051944968195
I'll go and get the anorak :)
Almost certainly the seller clearing out.
If so very good news, particularly given the share strength today on the back of the now imminent spud.
hs
There's a big difference between Trinidad and Niger - the geology. Not withstanding the many knowledgeable posters on the TXP board, I believe many have glossed over the complexities of the geology in Trinidad. In a chalk and cheese comparison, Niger is definitely the cheese and that said, within the next year or so will turn out to be the cherry on the Savannah cake.
Ref the "slack payments from Nigeria". It ain't sold until it's paid for and to my mind it's pretty clear that Savannah are totally cognizant of this fact in their pursuit of new gas customers. A contracted revenue stream of $4.3 billion over the next 16 years is a great foundation for their sensible policy of only signing up new customers with investment grade credit guarantees.
Thanks for the reply. Depending on when she arrives, if any break for the festive season doesn't get in the way, then I'd be disappointed if they don't spud with 24 hours of arrival.
No easy
As a matter of interest, why do you have a 6 day allowance for arrival of the rig on location and spud ?
duster
"The Company intends to publish the associated AIM Admission Document, which will contain a notice of general meeting, on or around 17 December 2021, following which point the Company would seek restoration to trading on AIM of its ordinary shares."
Just to clarify, they didn't actually give a precise date or time.
I've just had a visit of the Company website and on clicking the "proposed acquisition in Chad and Cameroon" box there's a location form to fill in with the final very strict disclaimer that people in the USA are not permitted to access the site or receive any information from it ???
I hadn't noticed before that our Nigerian Uquo field condensate is exported via the ExxonMobil Qua Iboe terminal. Presumably this already existing business relationship acted as a stepping stone for the Chad/Cameroon deal.
Not really my tasse de the, but hey as with dusterinmog (and he will be smiling along with the rest of us) we are all different and that's what makes the world goes round.
I certainly didn't detect the change and I doubt anyone else did either :)
https://www.facebook.com/KomakinoJoyDivisionTributeBand/videos/interzone-by-komakino/195973078128198/