Member Info for NoEasy

The RNS in a mixture of CC's words and mine.

Dewatering - 'Very technical process that takes time'. 'No-one has produced from here before so all new stuff'. 'Learning as we go'.

Flow Rates - 'Going fantastically well'. 'Info just this morning that indicates we can expect to confidently surpass 100mcfd'. 'Still need to build up to longer term sustained flows and only then will company engineers report those flow rates'. 'Well not yet gas saturated'.

PPA - 'The PPA comes in the near term'. "New Minister wants this project'. 'Very simple to conclude' 'Government wants to transition from diesel to cleaner and cheaper gas generated electricity'.

Finance - 'Talked to a lot of people , a lot would like to provide us with finance' 'They would all want their 'chip' (equity portion?). 'Investment Committee of Botswana Development Corporation (investment arm of Bots. Gov.) finalising few final items before providing TLOU with financing term sheet'. 'Finance will be settled after PPA is secured'

I've just increased my holding and hopefully I will manage to get a bit more in before PPA/finance is settled.

GLA

'...we’ve been told by the bod before ( I think Tony said it ) that the funding isn’t dependent on the flow rates or the ppa, so why has it taken over a year with no funding deal close to being signed?'

Worth checking out the last line of the announcement today as that clears the timeline up to a certain extent.

'....project finance options should come to fruition once a PPA and/or a generation licence is in place.'

I don't know if the flow rates have a bearing on the PPA being signed but everything I read into the announcement is that we don't have to wait for the flow rates.

'....special dividend to shareholders..'

That reads well

Being over the moon depends on your outlook Whizzer. I posted last night it is all about the water and that is exactly what is written in this announcement. This isn't alternative facts it's natural in its occurrence and some need to get their head around, as the company have had to do, that no matter your expectations until you get down there you won't really know how the environment is going to conform to those expectations in terms of time.

I don't know about Chukkers but I suspect he is reading this the same as I do.

'To date, the Company is very pleased with the performance of both wells.'

'It should be noted that the continued production of water from the coal is a sign of good reservoir permeability which potentially means that the wells will, with time, produce gas from a larger area and at a higher rate than would otherwise be the case.'

'It is considered that the dewatering objective will start to be achieved once the rpm is consistently less than 100. The rpm originally started well above 300 and is now generally in the range of 100 to 200 rpm.'

'As water is removed from the coal reservoir, a build-up of coal fines within the lateral wells can occur. If not carefully managed, this can lead to blockages and reduced communication between the lateral wells and the vertical production well. To minimize the potential for this to occur and correspondingly to reduce unanticipated down-time, the wells must be carefully managed during this dewatering stage. This is time consuming but essential.'

'With initial flow rates already announced, short term rates being higher, and the coal seam still to become gas saturated, the Company is very confident that sustained commercial gas flows will be attained from the Lesedi pods.'

I have had a cursory look Chukkers and there is some interesting material, some that can be used to form an opinion in respect our project. Has been worth a read thanks. I haven't looked at its financials yet and what it delivers to get to that Mcap A$213m though.

This was initially of interest to me from 2nd Sept;

'The pilot will be on production for an extended period to de-water and lower the pressure in the surrounding coal to achieve a commercial gas flow. It remains the expectation that three months of production drawdown will be required in order for material gas production rates to be observed.'

They then had to increase the pump size twice due to the amount of water coming out with the final pump change only completed on the 8th of November.

They already have four producing wells and are still having to adjust the engineering requirements as they do further wells.

As we know It's definitely all about the water.

How do we know that's you oldabutnowisa and not oldbutnowisa?

Time enough!

22nd August 2019 - '......delighted to announce that sustained gas flow rates have been achieved at both the Lesedi 3 and Lesedi 4 production pods.'

16th October 2019 - 'The initial rates were approximately 20 thousand standard cubic feet per day (Mcfd) from each pod. This was an excellent start and the Company is very encouraged by production data to date.'

30th October 2019 - 'Rapid Growth Gas Production and Electricity Generation Company'.

Tie the above in with, "The current stage of production involves maintaining pressure on the reservoir to further reduce water production, so that the lateral wells become gas saturated, rather than water saturated. This is followed by reducing pressure in the wells to the desired level which, once achieved, is usually expected to significantly increase the gas flows from the wells. This is a metholodical and detailed process and takes time to achieve. "

This is a methodical and detailed process and takes time to achieve.

I'm of the view that TG has kept us informed as to what is happening.... we're just not reading it.

They didn't have any power Sub. Financially they were in a dire financial condition. Now the worm has turned and they have billions in turnover. You can see why it might rankle them that we are a couple of million company and have 40% of the project they put $67m into and they are sat with only 20%.

To put it in simpler terms;

Essar have stuck a commercial dispute front and centre thereby blocking any finance from being signed off.

Yes Jiving we believe it is Essar and their veto but as always we have had no official confirmation as to whether that is the case or not.

If it is Essar then they appear to be playing a pretty simple strategy. They immediately issued an Event of Default notice against Shorecan when they stated they were on the very cusp of signing finance through a Service Provider 15 months ago. That would have got a drill down and, if successful as expected, then income coming in. Once income was coming in then any leverage (weak financial hand of COPL) they had in the dispute would rapidly disipate.

Essar didn't follow through with their threat when the deadline arrived 60 days later but tellingly they didn't take the dispute off the table either. The Essar Nigeria Shareholders Agreement contains a dispute resolution process which ShoreCan has sought unsuccessfully to invoke. Why wouldn't Essar open the dispute resolution process?

It appears clear Essar don't/didn't want a dispute resolution. They waited.

Each subsequent MD&A states, 'ShoreCan will vigorously contest any action by Essar Mauritius to terminate the Essar Nigeria Shareholders Agreement in the English courts'.

How will COPL do their end of that with no money though? It is one thing finding finance for exploration and development quite another to find finance for legal action when you are a company that has no income.

Still here Rift and in that other one.

The problem as I see it is that every time we try to secure funding for the project such as that provided by a Service Provider and now the Performance Bond (PB) we don't get there. Art, if he knows anything, knows that time is not on our side and hasn't been for the last two plus years hence the declining SP. If he could have done anything to get this moving and a drill down it was in his interest to do so. That he hasn't managed tells us all it is out of his hands. We will soon be down to 10 months left of a two year PSC extension that of itself is not really in play because it is conditional on the PB being handed over.

I cannot get my head past the extremely weak state financially that we find ourselves in yet holding 40% of a potential behemoth. Now which potential business parasites wouldn't be salivating at our predicament.

I bought on Tuesday!

I always buy on a Tuesday. Monday well that's a non-starter, everybody is throwing in or taking out. Wednesday that's full of woe. Thursday everybody is wondering what's going to happen over the weekend. Friday is the weekend.

Only day to buy is Tuesday.

That part of the MD&A is an almost total cut and paste Berta. That Arthur has gone through it and removed the reference to discussions with the service provider is not good at all. Well spotted.

Hi Cdnoll,
It would seem that they are still in dispute with EM (therefore included in the MD&A). Not sure how he can say one thing in an AGM yet completely contradict that in an official release.

'buy'

You trying to get me to by more Chukkers (knew I shouldn't have disclosed my trading strategy) :-)

Always been a bit of a conundrum for me that one as on the prospectus, second block of writing, they state no par value but equally as far as I am aware stocks listed in the uk have to have a par value!

Hi Rift, I thought the shares were of no par value rather than 0.1pence.

Saw what you did there:-)

Read a book yesterday by Guy Martin and just the title "When you dead, you dead", made me push the button for more shares yesterday. How's that for an investing strategy!