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Sirius Syndrome Brad not a panic attack would be my guess. There's 85,000 retail investors out there going through the same thing.

The take away for me from yesterday was there is no guarantee here but That TG is abiding by a strategy. He gave the reason we are moving slowly and it wasn't necessarily to do with coal fines etc although they will play a part. We have two wells on the go not a full field development which would probably have hammered the dewatering. Regardless of the risks here it is important to understand that forward shareholder value comes from a commercial flow attained under the two well scenario. Slower but we haven't given up a significant percentage of the company to move faster. It's a great strategy for us if we get the flows we want.

There was something new in the RNS;

'To prevent further delays and allow Tlou to secure finance, the Company has requested an initial (or interim) PPA so that development of the Lesedi CBM gas-to-power project can commence sooner rather than later. This initial PPA could then be superseded by the final PPA once the MMGE has completed its assessment and negotiation.'

Good management as this will allow both the PPA and finance to be signed off immediately if, as expected, those flow rates reach commercial levels. This move also confirms the companies belief that at this time a commercial outcome is on the cards.

Whizzer I must have missed the 'bad news' bit other than the SP coming down a bit. Pretty happy that we have been given an update that say's the company still expect commercial flow rates although the process of dewatering has been slow. ~No reported problems other than time taken though. So for me its simply down to patience on my part as gas is being produced and I expect more as gas saturation is reached.

Whizzer there is no guarantee that this will come good as the company themselves point out so it's always down to individual risk assessments. Like Brad I thought SXX was a surefire winner and we all know what happened there.

Good luck with any future investments.

A reiteration that we are in the hands of a slow methodical process, one that is required to preserve the integrity of the wells and to ensure that cash is not unnecessarily wasted,. Also confirmed that no problems exist with the wells and that the engineering solution is working to reduce water. Gas increases are happening but they are as yet not sustained, the company is expecting sustained commercial flow rates.

Morning Bolton, I'm guessing Berta's post was tongue in cheek. News certainly is imminent, its down to the individual to put a positive/negative on what it will be.......... and I've a strong feeling I know which way Berta is leaning.;-)

That's 3 more than usual Brad:-)

'.....however once we have our initial project up and running and plugged into the grid, many companies will be looking at us as a takeover target.'

And that is another reason why it was important to only apply for an initial 10MW on the 100MW RFP. The strategy is clear, apply for 10MW, get a PPA on that, that then provides the leverage for the financing to connect to the grid. Additionally a suitor would not want to be tied, as we wouldn't, to fixed pricing for a large chunk of production.

Berta, Absolute balance . Thanks.

I quickly ran out out of fingers and toes on my calculation Chukkers:-)

Brad I only needed to read the first few lines of your attachment to have it confirmed that Eskom is fooked, 'Eskom has a debt load of 450 billion rand ($31.5bn), with liabilities exceeding assets and debt repayments higher than income'. Thanks for the info.

Not a problem that you have a different view on this to others including me Whizzer. Also pretty natural when you have money invested to want to know about how secure it is and that's where updates would indeed help. For a number of reasons, not least that nothing is certified and most likely flows are up and down (surges), it may simply be that the company aren't in a position to put out an announcement that was definitive i.e. didn't raise more questions than answers.

I'm no mathematician but I do like my some's.

'Does anyone actually fall for these types of orchestrated efforts by blatant short-term marginal traders to make a quick few percent any more?'

The answer lies before our very eyes HiTS......what's more back for the second time and no doubt (clearly) some some fooled twice by exactly the same ruse. It shows how simple a strategy can be to make some money.

If it was me and I was confident that we were going to have commercial gas flows I would be working my arse off forward planning with more certainty on the detail of an expansive production programme and also meeting with key suppliers/contractors/financiers etc to start to tie down their involvement to finally get this show on the road.

That is if the switch has been flicked on internally with confidence that we will have the flow (which is not quite the same as having a flow that can be certified and reported to the market).

Only my best guess Whizzer and we may yet be disappointed but equally we may not. I say equally to give the yin and yang on which way it can go but given what we have had as an update recently the odds are not so equal with the yang less than a furlong from home with the yin trailing a distant three furlongs back.

I think you've got your timing wrong Whizzer. The balls ups have happened they are not (in my view) happening now. We await one thing and that is the flow results. Then comes the PPA and then comes the finance. It really is pointless backing up all that has gone before to heap on the present. What realistically was the other plan? Perhaps an offtake with another entity? Would that put us anywhere different than where we are now? Do we think we would get better/faster returns with another entity? Would Mother Earth deliver her cargo earlier because we have an off take elsewhere than the Bots Gov?

We will continue eating more and more cash until we have dewatered. there's nothing more certain in life than that other than death. Asking the BoD to do more of note is like asking them to go and get some empty tin cans and stick them down the well hole and start bailing.

We are now at the most significant inflection point in the companies history. Licences, test drills, land purchases, environmental studies, permits, previous funding/dilution etc all count for nothing if we can't get the gas to flow at commercial rates. We have been told that commercial rates are expected.

Its still very much a reality that we have a positive project on our hands and despite the balls ups that have occurred, for that I am grateful.

Regarding the flow rates, pretty reasonable request to ask for flow rate update and they have in effect done so with CC's piece to camera before Christmas. That was an update however we want to cook it. They are progressing and it is now expected by them, the company, that the commercial base rate of 80mcfd - 100mcfd will be exceeded. I don't know if that means an awful lot in terms of timescale though and it is easy to read into CC's comments that they were going to exceed the baseline when in fact they simply 'thought' that they would. That all is going well is a cursory assumption to make without further explanation of CC's comments. I would ask them to provide a descriptive update on the flow rate/barrels water removed per day as part and parcel of the Operational Report- Quarter ending 31st DecRNS due in a couple of weeks, if we haven't received the flow rate by then.

Try blaming the geology rather than the government or the BoD, it works to soothe the anxiety and is also true. The government/BoD have their skeletons in history but this is now all about the aquifer and how strong it is.

GLR I agree with that, the key detail for me is equally the key risk for the whole project. That's why I am happy that they dewater extremely carefully. Get that right, as they seem to be doing with no issues on pump size, no need for a new drill, upbeat comms from CC on flow rate, then with commercial flow rates I view the PPA & finance as close to a given as can be.

'is' 'are' for those grammatically correct.

With the resource we have this has really one major step to go. Not saying that the PPA/finance is not important, they are, but equally they are almost certain to be accomplished once we have the flow rates at commercial level. That's still the risk here for me so anytime now would be good guys.

Good post Minor.