Member Info for Nobby31

I agree that at or close to sanction is when most of the risk is reduced but there will hopefully be a number of shareholder rewarding steps on the way to that point in time. They have to review their strategy for how they market the offtake in my opinion. They’ve two experienced individuals to help them do that so I’m not too concerned there. We just have to be a little patient on this. Whilst we are being patient I’m hopeful we may hear about some other contract awards …. for the other side of the business we now own

At last !
Once the licences are confirmed, within the next few days, the only hurdles to unlock the value potential for the storage asset are commercial, not regulatory or technical. I am very surprised the SP didn't experience a greater boost from the RNS yesterday. Perhaps there is a concern about another raise or perhaps most do not understand the way the storage project is valued but either way I had thought if you missed the ML RNS you would have missed the boat to get in at a bargain price. Not the case. Nonetheless once any uncertainty dissipates and the numbers are made clear (it would be helpful to get an updated valuation of IMSL in the interims if possible) then I think investors will flock in. Institutions both energy and financial will be falling over themselves to own capacity and/or equity in this development so careful thought is required to optimise shareholder value. I'm convinced that IMSL impact on SP will dwarf anything else over the next 6 months. 50p or higher by Christmas.

The valuation of an SBU (storage bundled unit) in a gas storage project is driven by the intrinsic (summer/winter spread) and extrinsic (market volatility coupled with the response time of the asset between injection and withdrawal) properties.
Since the negotiations with Vitol commenced and a non-binding offtake agreement was negotiated the market has undergone severe gyrations and there may be aspects of the way the deal has been structured that require revisiting.
If I were in charge right now (assuming there is an affirmative decision on that dastardly and ever distant ML) then I would go back to square one and I’d design an auction process for the initial phase 1 of capacity which included the rights to bid for options on a yet to be publicised phase 2.
There will undoubtedly be a lot of interest and not just from the household names in owning and trading capacity in the primary or secondary markets. If anyone remembers what Vitol did at Humbly Grove (they agreed with Star Energy (Petronas) they signed a 100% offtake agreement then close to start up they flipped all the capacity to Gazprom at a very healthy premium; an auction would limit that risk, leave more value with the owners, perhaps bring in multiple parties and I think is the right way to proceed.
This is on the assumption that, given who the purchasers of capacity will likely be (they’ll need to meet pre qualifying criteria) there will be a sea of financiers looking to lend including the likes of all the current UKCS private equity players like ANCALA, Kellas, NSMP et al. This asset, is on the basis of current energy prices a literal gold mine (not a salt mine) GLA

Lottie I’ve long believed that the company is being targeted in a type of commercial sabotage, possibly, likely by players with vested interests in seeing a potential competitor fail.
The SP has been subject to prolonged selling pressure and where I first thought that someone was using the MMs to stake build that isn’t the case due to the lack of TR1s.
I think we all agree the BOD have at times not covered themselves in glory and indeed made some fundamental faux pas’s along the way in a “young” company and therefore the SP reflected that in some way as disillusioned investors sold up but this has felt very different since the Saipem award. I think the only way to arrest this is from substantial contract awards to give HARL “escape velocity” from the clutches of this predator

Thanks Lottie I was rather expecting 3 figures before year end provided the capacity offtake deal is still in the bag and that we get a relatively unfettered decision sometime in October. I think the UK is on the precipice of an energy crisis this winter so the public attention will be drawn towards projects like this one as an investment they might not have otherwise considered given it’s such a niche sector. Hopefully there will be considerable national press and social media coverage. We aren’t the next Tesla but we are becoming much more tangible

Morning Lottie. What is your view on the possible impact of a positive decision on the ML to the SP?

Guess the insiders, and there always are some with AIM stocks (and especially this one) can already see the interims are nothing to write home about and there may not be much cheer on the near term horizon.
So it’s jam tomorrow?

Poots and his mob have now had the DAERA information for about 6 months. He must have fully read up on the impact of warm supersaturated brine by now so what on earth is the reason for indecision? Oh wait a minute it’s because he doesn’t have to operate to any timeframe. How nice that would be if we didn’t need to worry about deadlines on critical infrastructure investment decisions.
This chap needs to given the wake up and smell the coffee talk; but by who?!
If he isn’t going to make a decision very soon he needs to communicate that but if he is he needs to communicate that. The silence is becoming deafening. Every day delayed has the likes of Mr Putin and other LNG producers rubbing their hands together. Get on with it … now

They’ve been trying to get rid of this ineffective dingbat for well over a year.
Time to introduce a heavier hitter with better city connections.
Same old bulls**t on departure about “invaluable contributions” simply could not be further from the truth as this bloke delivered zip.
I hope they’ve lined someone up already as they have had plenty of time to work on this given his long anticipated exit.

Lottie what’s your take on why the SP is suppressed?

three sells of 100,000 shares today at 18.0p and another indeterminate transaction of 150,000 shares at 18.25p.
Unless someone knows of an imminent raise, a legal case or ........? Why would you sell when everything is looking all rosey for the pipeline of opportunities that we have been advised is right on our doorstep?
I would welcome views .....
Good weekend to you all

Si if you are alluding to SNIP reverse flow that can be achieved with Mutual Energy given the right negotiating skills and of course the political driver. Also don’t forget that even without reverse flow there can be a netting off of forward flow during the winter when the store is called upon in NI and via the North- South link.
Yes there is a lot to do but the ML consent is the biggest obstacle to unlocking the development of what is clearly a critically important asset for security of supply and to enable the energy transition from methane to hydrogen

Once the UK mandarins and politicos finally come to realise how truly important energy security and also that however much renewable power you build you do not solve the intermittency issue; then and only then will there be support for storage both gas and electric.

I’m thinking it’s going to cost the economy billions, indeed it already has yet the comparative cost to each customer to “socialise” energy storage as a levy is way way lower than the green charges we already pay; it’s literally only a few pence per month to give us greater (not total) energy security.

They need to redo the maths on this. A lot of us in the sector having been telling them this for many many years. Storage dampens volatility and is cheaper than interconnectors and LNG both of which are notoriously unreliable in times of market stress.
It’s hard not to say we told you so but there’s no point in that but the latest group of boneheads need to get the message but I fear some of the lights will go out before they do and these projects take several years to become fully operational

This company is hugely undervalued. Clearly there is a major investor out there that still disagreed on that

This project won’t be approved unless the salt core taken from the exploration well has been carbon dated and proven to Mr Poots be less than 6000 years old (approximately)

50p - back to Saipem announcement level ...... for Xmas Eve
(With unconditional ML & FID = 125p+ but that's in 2022)

Are CFDs available on AIM stocks?
Maybe that’s it then - someone has a put option on us - big time ?!

do "not"want the company to succeed.

Sorry - sausage fingers!

Despite all the promises and jam tomorrow over the past 18 month it is clearly taking longer than anyone would like to become operational, competitive and truly open for business. They are finally doing a decent job on the last of these three and the other two are coming along in an environment where they are very limited as to what they can spend given the cash position and lack of borrowing facility. The future continues to look bright(er) to the point where you'd think the only reason they could fail is by over extending and running out of cash. Having to sack the newly appointed apprentices would be a PR disaster for government and us so fingers crossed that was a good move. My biggest concern is the persistent seller, with no open short positions declared I cannot figure out who is putting the lid on the SP at a time where there seems to be so many contracts nearly signed. It does still feel like jam tomorrow but the lid is of the pot and hopefully we can stick our fingers in fairly soon. This selling smacks of some kind of purposeful action from those that do want the company to succeed but who could that be, I'd certainly like to know and would welcome anyone's thoughts. To sell these shares you have to own them right? Maybe it is the MMs but I cannot figure it out.

Radders it did! Though my view is because there was inside information that the Board had only one way to raise the cash for the performance bond, the placing. Leaks like a sieve and the iis always get there first

I do enjoy reading your posts on the runes (charts) Lottie. I find it hard to understand it applying on the enigma that is Infrastrata but then maybe I have just a little too much scar tissue. Whilst I’d thought the myriad day traders had pumped and dumped (or whatever it is they do) there’s been considerable selling again today. Whilst I freely confess to not understand Fibonacci and all the chartist mantras I genuinely believe the only thing that will get us out of this horrible hole the Board has dug and chucked us in is a decent and meaningful RNS with a contract award of at least £5million or more; or of course the award of the ML (remember that ?-:)) anything else is just nice to have but not really accretive. Please do keep the analysis coming though as it’s very readable! Thanks & GLA. This time this year Rodney!? …