Member Info for NiptSteve

I'm quite sure people here aren't talking the stock down and would benefit hugely from an increasing share price as expected over the last x years.

It's very rare these days to get a reply from investor relations and the questions submitted for the agm I don't think will be made public and of course only a select few will be answered. I've submitted several btw.

My question would be are they looking to bring the TF version to the same level? Of course IONA on the TF platform is one of the best tests on the market but the nx version, using a new workflow which includes our own instruments, you would think is likely cheaper and and quicker. I wonder which of the two tests would be our preferred choice to sell in all regions.

Until we see the results of any tenders where we have likely gone head-to-head with Illumina we don’t know how much of an advantage we have over Verifi.

Can't say for certain but didn't LR say in one of those recent presentations that we are not targeting the NHS side of things?

I wouldn't place any hope or expectation of us being involved with this and to be honest there is plenty of business elsewhere that is more reliable.

Nothing new here but a good overview of our covid test from Jo Cross here:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200903/Improving-COVID-19-Diagnosis.aspx

So Caxton have provided a breakdown of costs and the 'processing fee' is the bulk of the cost with the test kit itself £10 regardless of volume.

https://www.caxtonfx.com/business/covid-19/

He said it twice from memory - initially 500k over the first couple of months I think and then at the end he said they will be ready to go with 500k tests.

I’ll need to listen again (there are two different presentations from today and I can’t remember which of the two this was mentioned).

And not forgetting the core business this isn’t bad timing:

ACOG Guidelines Recommend NIPT for All Pregnancies Regardless of Risk

https://www.360dx.com/molecular-diagnostics/acog-guidelines-recommend-nipt-all-pregnancies-regardless-risk

I’ll need to listen to it again but the volumes mentioned are way beyond my expectations. If we are looking at circa £40 per test with Caxton (granted that includes the testing itself) then if we make anywhere near this per test sale then 250k clarigene tests per month over a period of 4-6 months (along with the testing side of things) then it’s looking good.

What do people think realistically we would get per test sold?

I must say I’m surprised we are able to manufacture so many tests ourselves with the option to increase capacity.

Only a couple of weeks until September with clarigene contract announcements coming soon after.

Looks like Caxton is now offering school testing and 'film and production' testing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpZ4P4W8NAg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmeOwfhchh0

Most probably expect them to target more sectors but I can't see massive volumes out of this.

Coincidentally BGF sold a few in May.

Good to have them back to above their original stake though.

IMO I think we are too late with our test to be in contention for councils and airports.

I’d say our existing network will be the key adopter.

More than happy to be proved wrong!

Re the covid I doubt it will be the Caxton side of things that wI’ll be providing the material upside- it’s going to be getting our existing network of labs selling and processing clarigene. Our advantage over the likes of Novacyt will be gone by September when they release their two-gene test so hopefully via Adgenix we will make inroads with France before then.

We are well established in India with NIPT so that could be a big opportunity if we can get the test price down.

No idea what our current manufacturing limit for Clarigene is but any announcement confirming extra manufacturing support or expansion would be hugely welcome.

From Twitter:

New note from N+1 Singer on @Yourgene_Health (AIM: #YGEN). N+1 raises its fair value for the shares to 24p (previously 18p) and increases revenues for FY21-23, which exclude any contributions from COVID-19 revenues which could represent material upside to current estimates.

US broker Stifel was equally bullish in its note following yesterday’s results announcement. It sees Yourgene’s revenues rising to £22m for the current financial year, and growing to £26.5m the following year.

On its potential for COVID-related business, it said: “Recent collaborations with partners are in place to offer corporate partners and healthcare providers, such as care homes and private GP practices, a fast and reliable COVID-19 lab testing service.

“We do not currently include any potential revenues from the Clarigene SARS-CoV-2 test in our model, hence, there is potentially significant upside to our forecasts.”

I don't know how the Clarigene test compares to other covid tests but with Thermo Fisher selling the Novacyt PCR kits then as one of our major shareholders lets hope that they start shifting our test as well once we get CE approval:

https://www.fishersci.be/be/en/catalog/search/products?brandSearch=&storeId=10652&nav=37396&sortBy=default&keyword=coronavirus&searchType=PROD&SWKeyList=%5B%5D&typeAheadCat=

Hopefully we'll also get FDA and other approvals too.

I’m hoping CE approval and Illumina commercial launch (and associated contract news) before results.

In an ideal world something this week and then Monday followed by results on Tuesday.

I'm hoping that there are bigger plans for our test beyond the Caxton relationship.

The reluctance of many people to travel into the city when they can continue to work from home plus I can't see how a turnaround of 24-36hrs for a test result is quick enough? If a positive test result is delivered over a day later then how many people in the office would then need to self-isolate? Maybe I've just not understood this side of things correctly.

Is this the companies immediate focus rather than IONA Illumina rollout? Let's hope we get a better idea of where we are going with this in the results or ideally some nice contract news prior with some idea on volumes (clarigene and iona nx).

Caxton have updated their website with pricing and a few other pieces of information:

https://www.caxtonfx.com/business/covid-19/

So news I’d hope for prior to the results would be the commercial launch of Iona nx + related contract announcement plus CE approval for Clarigene. Then results with a bit more about Clarigene potential sales and after this an updated Stifel report with a revised valuation.

The Caxton covid page has been updated today https://www.caxtonfx.com/business/covid-19/

With our research only version I assume we aren't conducting any tests for them yet? The page implies the service is up and running.

Can only think this gap between approval and commercial launch is down to wanting to launch with a contract win in place.

We must be in a position by now where our Manchester lab can run IONA nx tests on behalf of clients whilst they get their own lab ready?