Member Info for NigelHaemoglobin

To reiterate a major condition to my speculative call (it's just sport Oz et al, keep your panties on), if the two Steinbeck type characters evaluate MOU-1 both in real time and when the results are processed if we do have something substantial then the probability of a dilutive placing versus a really optimal one ie >20p increases hugely.

Otherwise the brutal numbers tell their own story...

Certainly but with deference to your high level of geological knowledge. C2, which I understand perfectly (the PRMS is my Bible) can exist in a spectrum of forms. At the higher end Contingent Resources would, as you know, if sufficiently appraised would be booked as Reserves; that is up to the 2018 edition. Second point, MOU-3 is highly distal to MOU-1 where we are still awaiting full CT testing. Permeability is rather high which is related to porosity (apologies this is for the others) and we can expect a risk of formation instability. Poor old GRH and his 'E' equation, completely neglecting the basic physics principle of invariance and of course applying no term for velocity effects in fluids flowing through strata. Even modified Navier-Stokes equations are of minimal value hence the empirical approach.

Having reiterated the former resources/reserves inflexion point which now includes investment factors my view, in the context of a 2D studied field is that there would have been some analysis and debate within the CPR company with regards to the assignment of C2. I am sure they are correct though and cannot dispute their findings.

34% is high risk, ameliorated slightly but not far off an expo well drilled under calibrated 3D conditions.

The rest of it is all down to the psychology of Griffiths.

As I previously posted, all of the preceding cash calls ie placings were relatively easy to call and I did so. By now we are all aware of the cash position at the year end, planned ops at MOU-1, the almost complete failure (and expense) of MOU-2 although some useful info was gathered, the forthcoming MOU-3 well and further possible geotechnical difficulties.

There is no logic in waiting until most of the above is complete before raising, MOU-3 is high risk and in my view only is another exploration well.

Griffiths has to keep the outfit in a presentable state for the next phase which includes extensive and costly 3D etc etc.

I therefore and with no malice, just an interest in logic and speculation call an imminent placing.

MATD? Sounds like tosh to me, Mongolia! Jeeeez.

Good to see another player but I wouldn't get too excited about Rhea, high risk of H2O.

Mostly right but DCF tends to be used where there is a time limit for operations ie extraction of minerals. The opposite to say a bank, supermarket, insurance company etc etc.

How close to a pound per share before possible takeout?

Dilara clearly has good knowledge of the geo cultural situation, well worth listening to!

Has to be said Mrs S that you could have found a less expensive method to learn about gambling (for that is what it is) on weaner E and P's.

The reality is that it is a brutal game of statistics, no amount of bluster and waffle can replace a 34% gcos or having crossed the Bayes line into reality, a sea of mud with such unusual and as yet unexplained characteristics.

Have to say, I cannot stand Griffiths and his evasive waffle, a complete turkey!

Well LoveL, my idea is admittedly at the limit of speculative ideas but if an all share offer was made GKP investors would be in a much more safely diversified situation.

I have a possible answer, Genel have a colossally strong balance sheet, given the premise that oil will flow but not imminently ie months then Genel may have the power (they certainly have the bottle) to gobble up weaker players ie GKP. That is one possible conclusion from the premise.

I agree Armas however it would be advisable to study the broader risks including the endless geo-cultural issues. I admit to being totally wrong in my first opinion that the pipeline issue would be solved. The reality, sadly, is that political disagreements take precedence over transactionalism.

I agree Terry, owning equity is, in it's most simple form shouldering risk, hence why we are not liable for bankruptcies etc.

There you go, almost glaringly obvious!

'As part of its ongoing review, the Board is considering the previously declared final 2022 ordinary annual dividend of $25 million The Board continues to review the implications of the current situation and is considering necessary operational, financial and legal measures to protect the Company’s interests during this period'.

The RNS is clear, a dividend is unlikely to be paid. Strangely enough, even after the equity/debt Armageddon event GKP seems to attract the same species of punter. That said it is not going to the wall for the moment but looking very 'Shaikhy' in terms of takeout. Maybe we will observe one or two holdings RNS's? Not necessary for a T/O of course but one way of levering a pathway to take control.

As of Dec 31 Genel had $495 mil in the bank, I would think that they are now evaluating expansion throughout the region including farming into or taking over GKP, fwiw my holdings are in Genel purely due to the overall 'mood music', massive director buys, dividend declared and being delivered, more mcap stability etc. If they are 'in the know' I would borrow more, use some cash reserves and go shopping.

Mule82, how on earth is it possible to make predictions? We are still in the realm of exploration having already one expensive failure and one tbc discovery which may or may not be commercial?

Keep up the good work Pith, we cannot revive critical thinking here now as the often very subtle and frankly devious ramping is , for the moment, winning the day.

Isn't it a total disgrace that no further information has been released to the market with regard to the technically failed MOU-2? Or are we supposed to carry on as ruminants?

Manuel thanks, having skim read the doc I confess to making a (gross) mathematical error. Makes complete sense now.

Agree Opulentia, spot of divi stripping going on, added but freely admit the solution is taking considerably longer than expected, assuming an agreement can be made!