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Hi James
We are in agreement then, supported by MiddleEastMoney and probably GRH etc. I remain bearish about CNG as it is a ground level up downstream business ie years to profitability but positive about a larger discovery which could support the development of a distribution network including the MEG and provided that we gain a greater understanding of the Enagaz deal.
The appeal should be in HARL's favour but the legal system is designed to entangle. The Supreme Court is probably next as even though IM will eventually store 100% Hydrogen after years of increasing the admixture along with planned engineering upgrades in order to deal with Hydrogen embrittlement and the behaviour of the furtive little diatomic molecule.
HARL faces funding issues, that is the downside risk but IM is IMO a 6-7 bag upside case.
Sandy I think we are funded in the short term but further appraisals, CNG studies, FEED and P&A of 'x' wells could deplete cash requiring a fundraise.
What you need to learn (and clearly have not) is that NOTHING is definite in investing. Timing is everything. Will be at the proactive meet to take questions.
Bale outs? My English is falling apart!
Quite MeM, there are placings (desperate) and placings (fantastic). Being diluted in the first case is no fun and to be avoided.
Well lets hope so Ibiza but an open offer is the normal approach. Rights issue tend to be bale outs, I have participated in many over the years.
To be fair GRH and the city types know way more than me.
I would be cautious, placing risk escalating in inverse proportion to cash remaining.
Traded down to a good, low average but really just a modest wager tbh. I sincerely hope that Argentina are successful particularly in the Malvinas basin licence acreage. Maybe that could reduce the stranding risk which is at the edge of the scale!!
What we should be focusing on are business fundamentals/risks, technical failures (and successes), geopolitics, placings and the approach of the board to all of the above.
On another note why not private message each other re kids with mumps, obese PIP claimants etc etc etc etc. Mumsnet might be a starting point.
I agree with MeM, I think what he is essentially saying is that the next placing will be at a much higher SP on the basis of successful testing.
James, there is no hive mind here. Well if it does exist it has a collective IQ of a buttered scone. The only genuine industry poster is Jimmy and if he is trading his average down good luck to him, perfectly legal and ethical.
As for the rest you can be sure that the story is being manipulated for their own trading agendas.
As for me, I call future events as I perceive them but purely on the basis of probability.
Err ok Gus, my only point was that I have been invested in many companies and never had a problem with IR from a small investors POV. I vary my holdings continuously, the residual tiny holding in BOR has no influence whatsoever.
I have no idea what, if any, rules apply to IR. A company could say, well we have RNS's, reports, presentations, an AGM etc, what more do you want?
Never had a problem communicating with directors and only ever been a minor shareholder. Phone calls, emails, AGM questions and informal chats. All no problem.
They never say or write anything that is not freely available. Every interaction has been flawlessly lawful.
Invested concurrently in eight to about twenty five companies over twenty years. To be fair I have never bothered with writing to the FTSE 100 or indeed FTSE 250 boards purely because a PR minions reply with standard letters which are both useless and boring. Dr Obee is a an exceedingly upright, honest and intellectual chap and I wish him well.
Unlike two or three swine which I could mention.
"Thank you for your email. We haven’t released a recoverable gas estimate. As I’m sure you are aware, I am unable to give privileged information to any particular shareholder, whether they participate in social media or not. We have reported that the gas in-place volume is large – an independent un-risked best estimate is 3.2 TCF. When the liquids are stripped out the volume is still significant. The reason that we are not currently focused on the gas is that there is no local market. The best commercial opportunity at the moment, in our view, is to concentrate on the liquids, minimise the initial capital expenditure and deliver an accelerated payback (described in the presentation). As the dry gas gets injected back in to the reservoir, it does not preclude the exploitation of the gas at a later date".
Make of that what you will...
Unfortunately at gin 'o' clock Sefton is a bit prone to building his RSPCA euthanasia list, I'm on it haha!
All the more ironic given what happened on the tragic day which the other Sefton survived.
It was actually James, I used to implore the cognitively less fortunate and those with normal incomes to try and remain clear of this type of gambling but eventually accepted that free will exists and there is nothing that one can do to help. The prospectus is clear that complex risk exists and that only certain investors should ideally be involved.
Unfortunately certain types cultivate followers for their own ends and the results are sorry to see: an endless stream of broken LTH's across a disparate range of mostly AIM companies.
Dilution of personal responsibility facilitated by directed groupthink is the usual cause of horrendous losses and fruitless anger.
Where was it? Keep playing 'stick the tail on the donkey'.
James, you have more than sufficient neurone density to comprehensively understand investment and therefore complex risk. I would prefer the term 'positive but with awareness of future risk'.
There is a turning point in every company, often multi-modal and not always Northwards!
I'm a big fan of Bayes, Huygens and less mathematically, Buffet.
Sheep (apt name), the risk profile of He1 before initial well results was adverse therefore profit taking was rational.
The risk profile after well analysis was greatly altered, hence my buys at 1.7-1.9 and subsequent crystallisation of 25-30% profit was also rational: leaving some to run.
The financial, regulatory and technical risk graph here has also changed and +/- 1 p I am calling the inflection point for PRD. Plenty of risks ahead but no immediate placings (barring an MOU-5 success). If MOU-5 is a success particularly if MOU-4 testing is good to very good then you should anticipate a possible open offer to shareholders.
Having achieved an oversubscribed placing at 11p, battled through regulatory hurdles and had, possibly, their last significant technical difficulties PRD have modest potential.
I see no reason for the company to place shares until well after MOU-5. If MOU-5 is a major discovery though a decision window will open for the BOD. If they can launch a placing at >50p that is perfectly rational.
PRD are always very confident. Third time in Morocco under different wrappers.
Haha! Ok that's your opinion but no one else called the series of placings.
You could have lowered your average by 50-60% easily and thus complied with the first rule of investing which is the conservation of capital.
But you didn't!! Hilarious.