Member Info for NigelHaemoglobin

Yes, standard practise. Your warrants will continue regardless of holdings. Not advice, just another amateur.

Also GP, indicative that the offer is undersubscribed. In that event the company can blame the shareholders!

Why so many GP? It's only a 10% discount to today's ask. Still, definitely worth buying a few. Not the best managed retail offer but at least investors are actually funding the company.

EG looking a bit s***t or bust, not too happy with the cost overrun deal and quite grumpy about Cloughton flow rates.

The quicker that you finally realise that you are not only in competition with AIM type companies but with each other the better you will do.

Honestly? Watching a group of people fall into multiple psychological traps is quite disheartening.

On a different level weasels like Mandelson, Schtärmer etc feed on us like H.G.Wells Martians! They get away with it via psychological games and probably always will.

So far this week.

Confirmation Bias

Risky Shift

Boiled Frog Syndrome and finally...

Stockholm Syndrome (turn on the outsider).

Always plug into the primary distributers, London Stock Exchange in this case. It's free.

Plenty of additional news in today's epistle to justify modest averaging up (very rare event for me).

Agree Flombo, better than your average oiler. Almost always it is better to wait and buy direct from the market.

A lot less than one or two estimates on here. Not as gracious as it at first appeared...

To be more reasonable and looking back over the calendar year Will and his team have done very well. If I seem a bit obsessed with dilution, which is true, I apologise.

Difficulties: FEL 4/19, The Climate, Energy, Environment dep really do send a 'dog-whistle' in their comms to potential farminees. Delays, confusion and obfuscation are the norm. This is disappointing, at no point has there been a serious study into converting Moneypoint to gas. Quite the opposite! Now a HFO fuelled back up facility.

Looking at the EG numbers again we will imo need further funding approaching the well but we are now in an acceptable position.

Depends if holders take up all of their rights...

Edgein

'fully funded'? Just my pov but I don't read it that way at all.

Yet another round of confirmation bias and risky shift incoming!

Tried to help Flo sorry :( Btw you never had the grace to agree with me re company wallet a tad light...

Thank you only. It is part of the game to speculate and also to be wrong. The only problem is the detail. Here it is.

'Proceeds of around £1.5 million will be used to fund the Company's 42.9% share of funds required by Antler Global Limited ("Antler") to progress it's 40% interest in the EG-08 licence in Equatorial Guinea to drilling (expected to be in late 2026) and testing of the 893 BCF Barracuda prospect, and proceeds of around £2.0 million will provide general working capital to support working commitments on Europa's other licence interests'.

So it's not enough money.

rns#2 uses some corp-speak but my view is...this 'runway' is for a puddle-jumper Cessna to fly us along to perhaps EG spud only.

Retail offers? Sometimes a good deal.

Very fair question Flo but my substantive point is related to the mutual onanism which appears to have been triggered by a potential complex transaction in Orcadian. If you want the financial view why not watch and wait, observe how Orcadian investors survive such a deal?

Perhaps if we could focus on the group psychological phenomena associated with my thesis?

Fair enough, if you are having difficulties with simple English just read the quoted paragraph. Here it is Flo

'Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look for information that supports, rather than rejects, one’s preconceptions, typically by interpreting evidence to confirm existing beliefs while rejecting or ignoring any conflicting data (American Psychological Association)'.

How many oilers with diddly squat have had similar valuations? Personally not buying more as margin-of-safety now 3:1 but plenty of running room for the more sophisticated. Little bit early for institutions to buy off the market but it'll happen.

Slam dunk cases here, or 'pathognomonic' as the medics say. I feel very fortunate in being able to criticise myself (learnt the hard way) and action decisions re portfolios.

'Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look for information that supports, rather than rejects, one’s preconceptions, typically by interpreting evidence to confirm existing beliefs while rejecting or ignoring any conflicting data (American Psychological Association)'.

Orcadian is a pre-development in heavy oil and an explorer for gas. Heavy oil is challenging and expensive to recover: XEL never got there.

Any funder here will force a brutal payback in my opinion. If it happens here I am reasonably certain that while 'non-dilutive' terms would be severe enough to harm both mcap and future dividends.

Just my point of view!

Had a quick squint at the gel. What is the actual difference between using the gunk or giving ya Mrs a vodka/anti-freeze gargle before 'getting down to it?'.

Beyond me!

Fair enough Edgein, it's just that I try to apply scepticism to these matters, particularly cash in hand and future funding options. For every positive there is a negative for example...

Wressle has great potential for reserve upgrade yet requires investment.

EG has good potential but remains at 25% c-gcos (from brokers note), requires money in my opinion for the well and an emerg plan to fund well overruns. Regardless of what might be served up at an AGM we must always ask questions!

More than obliged Only. I expect that the Ostrich (green box) button has been selected by most.

Great drilling knowledge btw. I have been open on here about gathering profits, watching and waiting for funding news etc. Unpopular? Yes, give-a-f**k-ometer reading zero? Yes.

All I simply require from the company in order to make further investment decisions are:

1/ Information re funding of EG inc cost overrun contingency at 50/50 Antler/Fuhai.

2/ Exact detail of who is liable for this or that fault/logistics issue in the rig contract.

In other words I require the rig contract when available for perusal.

Good points re BLVN, I was in: managed a trading tranche but bolted after the onshore pantomime and Hart's lame excuses. Incidentally for others reading, Equatorial Guinea/Cameroon relations are very poor but internal Cameroonian politics are even more toxic.

Dai, thank you and I agree with the point I think you are making ie most wells run within budget.