Member Info for Nigelbonger

Apologies AJ, yes agreed. Hopefully this share along with other gold shares you own negate any of the negative impacts should they arise. Personally i have tried encouraging many people to get into Gold someway but the psychological "its performed well the last 10 years so it will forever" means everyone is focused on crypto, S&P, NASDAQ, USD denominated fixed income and retail housing assets. While Gold hasnt performed well compared to these and so is shunned by many retail investors. GL

Although i agree with you on gold going up through de-dollarisation, inflation pressures, macro economic headwinds and geo politics. These are not good things, it directly translates in to millions starving to death or borderline. Poor people unable to heat there homes causing deaths, homelessness increasing and general living standard detoriation. It is a depressing outset and although Gold stands to gain on that back drop millions of people will suffer. its not a picture to celebrate, sometimes with numbers and profits we forget that.

Im seeing alot of people invested now saying the 1m will only fund them until Q1 2025, if that is the case the BOD did an amazing job raising at those levels considering imminent and looming administration in the eyes of such gamblers. I would say gamblers (although we are all partaking in the AIM casino) because if you believed and stated the above you are putting money down on a complex tax transaction being pushed through to keep the company afloat....

Given the tax losses will be used at certain intervals in the future im assuming the counterparty most likely wants to optimise the deal in line with use of these losses and payments once used to negate the discount factor erosion on the NPV of the deal. Originally ECR may not of been aware of this, which is short sighted of them I agree, nonetheless for me does explain the raise. Did they run up the share price, looks plausible now and not a good look, the silver lining is they got the shares away in this market at pretty much what they were before the news, i.e no real discount. Am i happy with the dilution, no, but the company is at least funded until after deal conclusion. The alternative seems to be, no raise and hope the deal gets close to passing and start to run out of cash and halt operations and explorations, fire sale the tax losses for less to get it through or raise at a even more discounted price... looking at that this is still the best outcome, even if i dont like how its been done.

No im saying the buyer would be using the weakness of the other party against them, which is a very common negotiating tactic. I have worked on and with plenty of deals when the buyer knows either the company needs to sell due to cashflow or due to strategy pivot and either way the company gets it away for a discount. If a company has other routes the parties attempting to buy will make a stronger offer knowing this. So if they are selling say an 8m asset at 20% discount that is 1.6m capital loss.... Which is higher than the raise and while also generating no cash... I am personally awaiting more information, either i find out 1 week wasn't worth the wait or it was the right deal at the right time. its all ill say on this until we get more now.

Not tax raise, equity raises that should say.

The negotiating parties on the tax losses and other non core asset deals know this too. They would all be trying their luck knowing ECR are in a tight spot, if the tax raises generates 1m but they get a larger margin on the deals that actually reduces the capital dilution over all.... Again its pretty simple, either you have complete faith, why hold? or wait a week or 2 where they have eluded to an explanation and more insight and make a decision.

Yeah the DXY is up 3.5% (GBP/USD -3.65%) since the US election, meaning Gold priced in USD will decrease as the dollar strengthens. Jholistic raises a good observation when pricing in an alternative currency, considering the companies revenues are in dollars and expenses are in domestic currencies costs will decrease on that basis. FYI 3.5% on the current gold price gets you to 2800 in USD/oz. so nominal USD doesnt tell the whole story.

Thanks for your responses, obviously theres alot of upside which i was ignoring just to look at the ultimate risks, which seem pretty hedged by what's been laid out. To echo im very optimistic in gold in general, nearly all my holdings are in gold producers and have been since October last year and will remain so. MTL seems to be like the same case as THX, the limited and covered downside risk at the forefront dampening the true market value of the company right now even when only accounting for just downside risk currently 2.5 years at 100m a year (maybe more should gold keep going up). So what ever happens, once the uncertainty around LOM it cleared up their should be a re-rate in any case upwards... MTL benefits more being in a geopolitically more stable region however. FYI im in both

Just trying to weigh the ultimate downside risks here. If, say the drilling finds limited results of the mine is expected to take a long time to bring to name plate production. With the significant cash build up at play, would the company go through a decision to pay out this cash to stakeholders and whine down? This is see as a very limited scenario but would be good to have some thoughts in regards to this, considering i have a material holding in this stock

Thanks Genhis, you raise an interesting headwind, however, i would like to counter that with what i have seen. Crypto has often sold off when assets rotate into risk off and moved counter to Gold and usually moved up with Tech and other risk assets. I do note gold has been acting weird, moving down on inflation fears (due to the income opportunity cost perceived for holding if rates have to stay higher for longer) which is counter to golds narrative, but this is the short sightedness of the market I believe.

So personally if we do see what i outline in my previous comment, I do not expect crypto to be the saving grace people expect. I agree its still a potential headwind and something I am continuing to follow.

For me short term gold will most likely continue to be beaten up or trend side ways as Risk on, Trump related trades gather pace but long term fundamentals have not and are what i invest for. Central bank buying in all reality since the action against Russian held US Treasuries in 2022 has and will continue to see large demand, Global trend back to QE and the hanging very real possibility of recession.

US is about to hit 36 trillion in debt. 1.2 trillion in debt interest annually, and by 2028 on track to have 60% of its fiscal revenue paid out to bond holders...

Without painful choices over there they in my eyes or track to serious sovereign crisis or inflationary pressure. all three bode well for gold, especially if that money rolls out of bonds and into gold. I hold Gold miners to have a leveraged hedge against that very real possibility, as long as a mine is net cashflow positive I don't care what the short term gold price does.

Thought id check back after coming out of this a while ago and just saw the news... Sorry to all those that still remain in this and hope you get more than 2.66, the fact the creditor company wants to snatch it up and take private is a bit fishy. What are they so confident around, has it been ran inefficiently and burden with debt deliberately to take this up for peanuts and railroad a deal through. From my time in SHG and how that went about, its very possible. GLA that still hold!!

Hi Lamps, agreed vanadium has put a few half nails in the coffin, however an over stretched business with too many fingers in multiple pies and not actually getting to the promised consistent production has also drastically made things worse. New management is rightly now trimming the fat and trying to get core operations in line while reducing overheads further. But sadly will this company survive long enough to see these prices recover and how much more healthy would the balance sheet had been if the prior management had prioritised this. For me, i will only ever buy into AIM profit making companies with clear margins and growth as for me the risk/reward now makes far more sense.

Luckily i sold a major chunk with a small (for AIM standards) 75% loss, solidifying a 12k loss.*

Follwoing the dreams of riches only to be left holding the bag has caught me out more than i care to declare. This is a typical multibag potential loss making but great opportunity company ran into the ground with new management looking too late to the party to turn it around. Luckily i sold a major chunk with a small 75% chunk solidifing a 12k loss. and now have a 4k position thats worth 700 pounds, I will leave this in as i had written it off anyway but i would definitely stress anyone thinking jumping in on this share really should be putting in gambling amounts. something they are happy to lose. I for one am very unhappy to have loss 16k of my savings at 29 on this share. Luckily im young and have made it elsewhere, a high costing life lesson some may say.

Hello all, Have sold some west africa gold miners shares (well over exposed in that region) for a chunk of these today. Looks like its just got some LOM worries which is supressing the price but think it will easily be extended. meanwhile POG is breaking ever higher, look forward to getting on this ride with you all!

Nov 23 POG = $1700/oz THX SP = c.15p.. Today POG $2670 and THX SP c.15p. I would say any downside risk has been more than priced into this share by now. over 50% POG increase, while debt is about to be fully repaid too.

Would like to say im back in this morning, think i overreacted after rereading the presidents remarks it appears its licenses for companies looking to build mines and less established players rather than seizing assets. After Endeavours statement its given me more comfort. Endeavour is a solid company and with production weighted to H2 and the gold price being this high its kicking off alot of money. using 450k at $2400 gold collar and the expected average H2 gold price, accounting for production in H1 and using lowest production and highest AISC guidance. EDV are looking to make £1.4b margin. this is earnings right now, not including the forward cashflow expectations on sustained higher gold price and increased production in 2025.

I also personally expect gold to continually increase, the world is reversing back to QE globally, rates are decreasing which is a catalyst for gold according to GS, JPM and MS. It may trend sideways and slightly down but for me there's no real driver for the gold price to depreciation.

Sold all my holdings in this... too much in it and for such a significant productions amount at risk just wasnt worth it, will park at other gold producers until the government gives clarity on this... but then even thats a risk they are just lying.