Member Info for Nickthesaint11

Why is the SP so low?

It's one thing for peeps to bleat on about water levels but that isn't really the issue.

PTAL has been delivering consistently, plus should actually benefit from a low oil price as more costly competitors mothball their operations.

Imo this is one of the most attractive oil companies in the world, is gushing cash and serving up dividends. I can only think the poor SP performance is due to the lack of awareness among investors?

Link is here

https://research.hannam.partners/#/document/e0dbd4ba-f2e2-418f-9eeb-2332e322f5ba

Oak Bloke has done a nice summary here

https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/thx-thor-3q24-results?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=yqi60

On interest rates, we may be missing the point here.

The market, not the Fed, sets interest rates over 6 months. And as Jeff Gundlach says those rates are only going to go up.

The Fed has to roll over $15 tr of debt in the next 14 months. Who's going to accept anything less than 4% for that?

and here's the new guidance

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-services/gulf-marine-services-plc/research/zeus-capital/gulf-marine-services-gms-ln-contract-award-and-increased-2024-guidance/f8e6c091-7932-4f74-a8ca-5b8e58426807

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/823ef2e5-2b96-552a-9303-122b7691e684

Does Kodal Minerals have properties in the area too?

Or they can cut costs

Why is the share price continually slipping?

I'm not sure the Chairman was in favour. My expectation is that palms were greased for a select few.

The view that this reduces Deterra's relative costs is that they are able to add TRRs assets at a (my view) deep discount. Thus, AUMs increase but admin costs not so much

I have done some scuttlebutting (take this for what it is) and my main finding is that Deterra wants this deal simply to reduce their cost base.

There's no indication that they especially value TRR's assets (though they are getting them on the cheap). This may give more credence to the case that the offer is purely opportunistic.

What caused the bounce?

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/06/17/is-the-trident-royalties-bid-good-for-shareholders/

Look at this tone deaf tweet from management 10 mins ago

https://x.com/TridentPlc/status/1801298486597718513?t=0RcHSI6vLutz7u6Erdhxcg&s=19

Schrodingerscat nails it. The BOD acted disingenuously imo, buying shares while negotiating, and they should be transparent about the offers they have received personally in the EGM.

The House Brokersvneed to come out now and explain why the offer is so far short of the valuation for TRR they have arrived at. When a similar deal happened with Arix Bioscience, Peel Hunt resigned in disgust and eventually a fairer valuation was received.

Shareholders need to reject this offer, turn the heat up on the BOD and their ridiculous justifications (which shareholder in their right mind cares about liquidity versus actual price achieved) and give other companies interested in picking up these prize assets for a good price some belief that shareholders aren't just going to rill over and have their tummies tickled.

Reject this offer and either wait for our numbers to improve next year, after removing the Chairman, or for another more realistic offer to come in.

Where is the assumption that interest rates are set to fall coming from?

Jeff Gundlach sees rates rising significantly over the medium to long term, as the Fed has to roll over $17 tr of short term debt. Meanwhile, foreign buyers inc China are fleeing US Treasurys, and on top of that Powell has backtracked on his '4 or 5' rate cuts this year and now most dealers are expecting only one. Happy to hear thoughts to the contrary.

But what if the Malian Govt simply expropriate B2 Golds mine?

This risk to me eas simply glossed over in their report accompanying the full year results.

They made a big statement as to why they invested in this royalty without giving any sense of what will happen if the government seize B2Golds assets

I'm a bit concerned about the Mali situation. It seems possible that the government will take over B2G's new mine. If so, does TRR's royalty stream become worthless?