Member Info for Nickthesaint11

28 April 2026 RNS: "New Order Intake and Notice of Interim Results"

"The Group is experiencing an increase in input costs, particularly the cost of tungsten gas, being the principal raw material used in the production of its coatings, due to rising demand from the defence sector and export restrictions from China. ... Aggregate additional input costs are expected to amount to approximately £0.7 million in the second half of the financial year. The Group are mitigating this through a combination of selling price surcharges and internal operational efficiencies and are continuing to work closely with customers in managing these pressures."

FY25 results and trading updates shows Hardide has long managed process gas costs proactively, including historical global supply agreements for tungsten hexafluoride (the key precursor gas).

In the market as a whole, there are no widespread reports of outright scarcity halting production for established users like Hardide. Issues centre on higher prices, longer lead times, and strategic stockpiling rather than zero availability.

Saying Hardide did not mention scarcity if there is none is a bit like saying why did they not cry wolf imo. If there is no problem, there's no need to mention it.

My personal view here is that Tungsten Gas is such a key input to the business, I'm sure the team has not abandoned its policies of last year and continues to ensure there is sufficient stock.

I will have a look when I have a moment. Sorry was busy banging out a note on Tekmar, will share here but apologies if it's a rude crosspost, still I think it might be interesting given the similarities:

https://wizardswinners.substack.com/p/a-magical-subsea-cable-microcap-trading

Hope this is of interest to the board:

https://wizardswinners.substack.com/p/a-magical-subsea-cable-microcap-trading

Because management already referenced this and have claimed it's not a short or medium term concern. I'm inclined to trust their expertise being at the coal face and give them the benefit of the doubt. Also, they have claimed they can pass costs on.

Further, titanium prices have been pulling back to a degree.

Let's see whether this is addressed at next week's results.

I think this fear is overblown tbh

If your question is, which of the two offers the highest upside based on its LOM cashflows, there is only one, and by a long way.

Altyn is currently a 4x to FV at $4.4k gold by that criterion.

They need to use this to enter a cash neutral JV. Enough of the Raiders of the Lost Ark crap. They need to farm this out.

Excellent RNS from IIG. As well as executing- and then some - on the rollout of the digital lottery platform, the Company has announced its intention to list on the LSE.

The train for picking up these shares as cheap as they currently are is fast departing.

Another great write up by The Oak Bloke:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/fixin-pxen

Clear undervaluation here.

Https://x.com/i/status/2028734485836005828

I loaded up some more

I look here:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Then change to a 10 year view. Look at the covid spike to €350 / mwh

Key is to consider (for prospex) where will the price SETTLE.

If it settles where it is now you can more than double the fcf. But it might well settle higher, given (as Doomberg has pointed out) the EU consumes 65 exajoules energy pa, but produces only 3. Is a structural price shift in order? Maybe.

Ofc it could fall back to €20. But maybe after 2 shocks the price will find a plateau well above where it was previously

Anything above €30 and Prospex will be taking it in LT.

I'm calculating the additional throughput adds c. $750k to fcf? Anyone like to correct that if wrong?

Decent follow up to his original article by the Oak Bloke

https://open.substack.com/pub/theoakbloke/p/iig-niting-trust?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=yqi60

Im sorry, but even that valuation is far too low.

It's printing as a 7x even on the low valuation they gave - a 13x on the high valuation. So thats 13p+ on the low valuation post dilution and 28p on the high one (to fair value). Allowing 50% dilution (and thats conservative).

Obviously this is based on execution happening, no jurisdictional hiccups and spread over 2 or 3 years when cashflows stabilise.

But still. Too low.

Thank you Rick and I agree. Bear in mind the FCFE number I gave IS conservative- assuming ofc Cedric executes to plan. So $45m for 29. But if we take the FCF number analysts use, thats $88m. Again, no heavies, no additional resource (unlikely) and nothing for Sestana.

These disconnects are everywhere. Altyn Gold for example has a long mine life (so no more capex) and a 5x today. Just to get to fair value.

Trouble is investors have no yardstick when valuing, so struggle to see ahead.

I could go into other metrics (eg P/FCFE or EV/FCF) on a 10 multiple and the upside for both is even higher.

But I will leave it there.

Not intending to ramp, but the REE valuation is completely disconnected from reality.

If you take the lowest case Fluorspar / Gallium prices and even with the latest run up, it's still printing as an 11.75x upside (or 14x at a higher price scenario).

From this we need to allow dilution of 30% or so, also assuming no further funding, so an 8x.

Also assuming that management can execute and production commencing next year.

You would have thought that with all these REE rich missiles and drones flying around, there would be a bit of a response from the markets. A serious closing of the valuation gap at least.

What we've seen is anaemic, both in REMX and US Govt supported projects such as REE.

FCFE here will be $45m pa (from 2029). Nothing in for the heavy REEs or Sesana. How much is Sesana worth?

Just because the sp has run up a bit does not mean the significant mispricing is being closed. It needs to triple just to remove the clown's nose.

Thats too low. They always sandbag valuations.

I'm getting a 8x with NPV of $250m.

Ev/fcf for 27 printing as 0.64

Have a look:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Prospex ofc charges out at Italian gas prices, which are above even this.

If these rates hold PXEN will be minting it

I agree. I'm trying to be super conservative but you're right Oil, let's add back yet another £100m.

At the end of the day the question is - can management build the mine? Thats what they need to do to realise this value.

If they sell the project then we will end up with peanuts. So they need to keep pushing, hopefully confirm a 1m oz reserve then get on with the mine financing and build, no further exploration until cashflow.

Let's assume their resource will convert to 1m Oz gold. Cut in half for BCM JV so 500k oz. Let's assume AISCs of $2500 so now we can say 250k oz gold value at $5k gold.

That's $1.25bn. Even allowing for further capex you get $1bn, with the current MCAP at £16m.

Crazy undervalued.