Member Info for Nicksmith123

What’s funny (not) is that they’re so bad at predicting their own financials. Even when you think they can’t upset the market more…. BAM!

Enjoy your day folks, move on.

Wilson - it’s all waffle. It has been for the last year now.

Look at the numbers.

New assays, new products, WHO, Tata… it’s waffle.

“Predicted Q3 2022 revenue of circa £2.0m, with similar levels expected in Q4 2022, resulting in an anticipated EBITDA loss for the full year of circa £13.5m“

Such a joke of a company

I hate to be one to blame MMs as a lot of the times it is just shareholders finding something to blame .... but there are such little trades on here. The drop in price can only be explained by a bit of MM bringing it down, or there is a background seller wanting to sell off a big load.

Skeletor - yes what a load of waffle…. is this what a “marketing guy” gets you?
Even though it mentioned the first 100 days review a few times, i’m still unclear what the outcome was (other than they have to find some non covid revenue)
You’re right on figures - they’ve used percentages to pretty much tell a similar story to last year. Upside being that it hasn’t decreased and they can use it to vile
on.

Anyway, main thing…. £101 in the bank. wow.

Soder - fully agree. The valuation here is just crazy. I have investments in places like MXCT whereby they are loss making and revenues of 30mil… market cap valuation of 500 mil!

NCYT should be valued much higher - however until they have a steady non covid stream of revenue, the market won’t believe in it.

What a war chest to go out shopping with. Amazing.

As previously noted, i don’t expect this RNS to do anything significant to the share price, either way.

PS: I fully believe there are de-rampers at work. That's what happens (just as there are rampers at work in other shares). Unfortunately, at times, there is no smoke without fire. They're depraming, but do they have something to hold on to in the first place?

These boards/twitter are made up full of rampers and derampers. Yes the person that posted on twitter can quite clearly be seen as a deliberate deramper. Set up his account today and posted an article on NCYT with the heading "ouch". However, just think about it. If they really are shorting the share, do they want to get caught out next week, when you believe the results are going to catapult the share price?! No. Hence i've now believed for a while the results aren't going to do much to the share price. However, I truly hope the derampers haven't got hold of information that makes them believe the share price will fall further.

BYP - ok lets say you're right. Im not saying your not.

The fact is - it has damaged the share price. Even if results are "amazing" - (im not quite sure what you think that is) where do you expect the share price to go?

You've been crying out for RNS (again, no idea what you want NCYT to say) for the last few months. Yet if there is an investigation about to be launched into NCYT, would that explain share price suppression, lack of RNS, lack of director buys, and employee exits?

Ive been in NCYT for a long time and unless they have a clear strategy and revenue stream outside of COVID, they are going to have a very very tough ride.

Lewis i feel like you and a few others miss the point.
The article has caused damaged - see the share price today.
Valju - whether it is red and blue on LSE is irrelevant. It's boring just to read you write a whole threat on it.

The share price is suppressed and has been - is this because of the whistleblower allegations? Cast your mind back to when we were at £12/11/10 - the share price wasn't reaching the heights of £15.00 that everyone thought it would and in fact went down, just a month before everyone thought a new governemnt contract would be announced. It was causing confusion amongst PIs on here. A few weeks later we find out about the cancellation of the Phase 2 government contract.

Unfortunately, it feels very similar here - share price being suppressed, but for what reason? Is it that there is an impending MHRA enquiry about to be launched, which would be hugely damaging to the NCYT reputation? Is it because results arent as good as the market expects?

You can scream and cry about Private Eye all you want and how it isnt a proper magazine. You can scream and cry about the government. The fact is, Novacyt don't seem to be as squeaky clean as everyone once believed. It's hurting them and i think it will be a long road to recovery.... that's if they've put a non-covid plan in place yet!

EBITDA and Revenue Up and ahead of broker guidance - and yet their down.

This goes back to my point made a few days ago... if anyone is expecting a re-rate on results day, i believe they will be in for a nice surprise.

The best we can hope for is NCYT have a solid strategy outside of the covid remit with a clear revenue stream. This will then lead to an increase in share price as the strategy comes to fruition.

The only way i can see a major re-rate would be if the revenue/profit margin was so exceptionally past the guidance (over 20%) - which i feel is unlikely.

Kaeren - exactly. I’m not sure what everyone wants in the RNS. I just keep reading on this board that lots of people want one. Other covid stocks that have put in regular RNS aren’t fairing better.

I think as Bugs said earlier - prepare for results to be at around 98-100mil. My hope is that DA has put in a plan that allows revenue generation outside of covid. A clear plan will help markets.

Other than that, i don’t expect a re rate on results day. If you are expecting one, i would be prepared to be disappointed.

Soder - i think you're wrong about his CV. As neilrich3 pointed out he was CCO and CBO at Amryt and revenues grew substantially. It also has a bigger market cap than NCYT. Why do you feel he isn't capable?

Moreover, you say he's silent - but what do you want him to announce? If they don't have any major news, is there any point in having useless RNS's just to try an prop up the share price, as many other AIMS do?
I rather they concentrate on the business and have a blockbuster trading update at the end of Jan, rather than pointless info drip fed across two or three months.

By the way, the one RNS he did put together- look at how optimistic and positive it was compared to RNSs from the last 12 month.

Soder - he has been at Amryt for the last 4 (nearly 5 years). Hardly job skipping.

Soder - yes it started last week, but i am sure you’re aware that PCR has been increasing exponentially prior to this, on weekly testing numbers. But sure, if you think NCYT can’t revise their revenue- that’s what my initial question was.

DRB- Aim rules as below

An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
its financial condition;
its sphere of activity;
the performance of its business; or
its expectation of its performance.

Is anyone concerned that NCYT hasn’t reported an upwards trajectory of revised revenue? Surely with PCR being so hot now, they must be over £100m target revenue? In which case any substantial increase they are obligated to report.

Or do we read this as NCYT is only on track to receive what they predicted?

Blue light - we are not surging as the market has very little idea if NCYT supply the pcr tests.

Yes there is a small 4.7mil contract in place, but no update from that.
The likelyhood is that a majority of these tests are supplied by a competitor. While many of our tests seem to be going into private.

Unless you have evidence of our pcr tests being directly linked to mega labs, then quite honestly most on here are just guessing when they link ncyt tests to government pcr testing.

Investor Steve - there are businesses out there. Take a look at Loop as an example.
Cash £12mil, mcap £14mil, revenue £34mil.
The problem is loop has an uncertain future and untrustworthy BoD.

I don’t believe NCYT is anywhere near the same, but there is a level of uncertainty for the future and questionable trust of the bod. Markets don’t like this.
Until we see solid revenue streams for NCYT future with less reliance on covid, i won’t be surprised if mcap stays around these levels.

Soder - as per my comment last night, i find the JO Hambro's fund is particularly interesting. The UK growth fund is managed by two very intelligent fund managers. They are very particular about the funds they buy into and have specific growth targets in mind. It's a great sign, though bearing in mind it's a small % of their fund.

JO Hambro buying into NCYT is big. They are a company which refuses to trade on algorithms. The Uk growth fund (which bought it) is specifically targeting companies which are undervalued and expecting a share price growth in the short term future. Good sign.

Kaeren - advisors have told the board not to issue.

“following further discussion with our advisors a decision has now been made not to release H1 results with so little to update the market on following the recent YE2020 announcement.”