Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I like the potential prospects of SBTX and it looks in the buying range now but there are a few question marks.
1) SA in an interview with elrico (was it late last year?) highlighted that sales were low as he had changed strategy and had received interest from majors that led him to believe that a significant licensing deal was going to be much more lucrative than direct sales.
Simple question: given how SA depicted the significant interest that led to the strategy change, why hasn't a deal been struck and with very little update on any substance on any licensing progress.
2). So little feedback from. Croda on how they are progressing in terms of their relationship with SBTX.
3). The potential for an acquisition was announced many months ago but again little has happened. I don't really like companies that try to grow by acquisition and f SBTX really has the potential to do lucrative licensing deals then this is a distraction and potential dilution as well.
4) Will Optibiotix continue to depress the SBTX share price by selling shares.
5) SA stated in his interview with elrico that he didn't need to raise funds. He then did so and justified on by saying it gave him cash for an acquisition. Well, the reality is that with minimal revenues and in the absence of a licensing deal he really did need to raise funds for working capital. So another CEO who hasn't been straight.
SA speaks well but as yet there is little in the way of delivery.
That said and one global or significant regional licensing deal and the value of the Company will multiply. That's the conundrum for investors. How likely is it is the (literally) million dollar (rhetorical) question. It's a mystery why one hasn't been concluded given the relayed (by SA) significant interest that led him away from focusing on direct sales all those months ago.
I am neither bearish or bullish but just weighing up SBTX as a potential investment as the current share price is potentially enticing albeit with the caveats outlined above.
One thing I'd add is that TRAC are capable of coming out with an eye-catching announcement that pushes the share price up significantly and enables funding at a much higher price. They might be waiting on something hence the later than anticipated results. They do need to deal with these short-tern loans though and until they do it's too high risk for me but post funding at around current share price levels I'd be a buyer.
This company has so much going for it. Innovative on a tiny budget, it achieves trials with majors and has managed to restrict the shares in issue to around 60m hence the tiny m/cap.
It does need to be properly financed though. It has a 500k debt facility running at 24% interest per annum that expires in Dec (with full repayment of their borrowings) and convertible loans that have to be repaid within months as well.
I think a £1m plus funding to get rid of all these loans and convertibles with enough cash to take them to profitability is needed. Not easy in the current market.
T42 IOT Tracking Solutions PLC Financial Update
15/12/2022 1:30pm
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)
T42 Iot Tracking Solutions (LSE:TRAC)
15 December 2022
t42 IoT Tracking Solutions plc
("t42" or the "Company")
T42 Financial Update
t42 IoT Tracking Solutions plc (AIM: TRAC) (" t42 " or the " Company "), the provider of global shipping container tracking solutions, announces that it has raised c. US$611k (gross) through a combination of debt and equity subscriptions, and arranged settlement of a further c. US$328k of supplier debt through a convertible loan, as detailed further below. The new funding will be used to strengthen the Company's balance sheet as well as to support its future growth.
Debt Facility
The Company has, through its wholly-owned subsidiary T42 Limited, entered into a loan agreement ("Agreement") with CSS A lpha Global Pte Ltd ("CSS") for the provision of a 12-month secured US$500,000 debt facility ("Facility"), to support manufacturing commitments and working capital needs. The Agreement provides, inter alia, for interest at 2 per cent per month, with 9 monthly repayments starting 3 months after drawdown. Security is by way of a second charge on assets, a personal, guarantee from Avi Hartman, CEO, limited to 20 per cent of the loan and a deposit with CSS of 3,000,000 new t42 shares ("Deposit Shares"). In addition, warrants for a total of 2,976,185 shares in t42 have been issued to CSS, exercisable at 7p per share over 5 years. The Facility includes representations and warranties by the Company that are customary for an agreement of this nature. The Agreement is subject to Mr Hartman not resigning as CEO of T42 Limited during the term of the Facility. There is no penalty for prepaying the Agreement at any time.
Convertible Loan
The Company has issued a GBP265,000 convertible loan note ("CLN") to a supplier, to be applied in lieu of settlement of a supplier debt, assisting with the Company's cashflow management. The CLN bears interest at 3% per annum, payable quarterly, and is repayable by 31 December 2024. The CLN is convertible at 9p per share at the discretion of the holder. In addition, he Company has the right to enforce conversion of GBP100,000 of the CLN in the event t42's share price exceeds 12p and the balance if the share price exceeds 15p.
Equanimty, I'll go with HAA superior knowledge to mine and say 44% of NPV but with the caveat that the NPV % valuation is likely to be significantly higher once listed on a Saudi index based on Amak's valuation. I think a Saudi listing will make a very positive contribution to the valuation and investors will understand that and even start to factor it in prior to a listing date. It could get interesting if there is only a relatively small float on a Saudi exchange. I wonder if there will be a share consolidation as well.
Tw.G. I make the warrants issued as follows but please check the announcements for Dec 2021, Jan 2022 & April 2022 to make sure I have got the figures correct. I've rounded all the warrants issued to the nearest million:-
April 2022:- 275m + 75m to Tariva the broker (the broker warrants are stated as exercisable at .8 with all the others being 1.6p) giving a total of 350m warrants
393m warrants exercisable for shares at 1.6p from Dec 2021 / Jan 2022 announcements
So I make it 793m warrants in total all exercisable at 1.6p aside from Tamara's 75m warrants exercisable at .8p shares. But as I say, please do check
Really interesting debate on the likely and potential values post TK funding.
I am not sure how many miners trade in the Saudi indices but it would be worth looking at the % to NPV that they trade at. Clearly, Amak trades at a much higher % but does this apply to any other miners listed?
I think all we can project at this stage is that post-listing on a Saudi exchange, Kefi with its Saudi interests is likely to trade at a significant premium to what it would do if it just traded on AIM.
Trading at 44% of NPV would indicate a circa 5.6p share price but there will be more shares in issue when, as anticipated, the 1.6p warrants are exercised.
I can't believe how poor the Eddison's note is in terms of projecting value. Quite bizarrely it appears to be based on a dividend valuation model.
The other factor is of course the NPV is likely to rise with further exploration results.
2011 link but granted it's interesting. It's still irrelevant though given the Presidential Decree. With references and links, it's essential to put the dates unless the intention is to mislead about the current status and future prospects. Also noted are the desperate effort to give the thread a negative title when there are many other positive quotations despite the 'documentary' having a biased slant.
A previous long-time objector who assumed MIN / Loyalward were "sworn enemies" says he met someone associated with the project and was won over as shown in the clip. He states after being invited to see the plans he "realised they were proposing all the things I had been proposing for years."
What is key though is that after long discussions, project adjustments and numerous appeals an irreversible Presidential Decree was issued and, like it or not, the project is on track to go ahead with highly sensitive proposals that use just 0.5% of the leased area for development.
What I find amusing is that the detractors (of MIN) chop and change from the leased area being categorised as harsh worthless scrubland to an idyllic scenic location that shouldn't be touched.
This link was interesting but a date should have been added as it's irrelevant in the context of whether MIN as an investment is going to be a success. There has been a lot of misunderstanding (deliberate or otherwise) lack of understanding of what a Presidential Decree amounts to. It's irreversible and unappealable.
There have been a lot of posts (here and elsewhere) deliberately trying to mislead in order to try and dampen sentiment in order to buy in cheaper. All the recent news suggests that commercialisation of the project will move ahead rapidly once the Foundation discussions are agreed and formalised. This should be reflected in a corresponding buoyant share price. The detractors will not like that one bit for whatever bitter reasons motivate them. Review the share price and news released by the end of January and let's see.
****nal, I'm a realist and there is no doubt MIN have disappointed over the years. The past can be a pointer to the future but not always. It may disappoint you for whatever perverse reason but things are finally coming together for Minoan. Anyone who has noted the recent appointments and their 'money where their mouth is' investments will not be surprised if 2023 turns out to be a highly rewarding year for Minoan shareholders. You're free to take a different point of view but sometimes it pays to have an open mind. It's all in the recent news releases and anyone who chooses to dig a bit deeper will know that for once these are not empty or premature words. With MIN right now, never has the cliche 'do your own research' been more apt.
It's also clear that you are one of the many usernames that include 'mudbath' who is clearly driven to mislead. Some posts elsewhere have been highlighted as fictitious and have been deleted by 'mudbath', but it will be interesting to see if he tries to get LSE to delete the post where he suggests Minoan is a con. It's pathetic and libellous in equal measure and I hope he pays the consequences. Morally, he is no better than the CLP on the Tern thread and that's about as low as it gets.
Factually incorrect. The Presidential Decree makes the link irrelevant. Anyone with the slightest bit of integrity would acknowledge that and apologise for a link that is irrelevant and posted to mislead. It's higher poor research or deliberately posted to mislead. If you don't understand what a presidential decree means (it's unappealable/irrevocable) then it's futile trying to clarify a straightforward fact.
Whether someone has updated a link that has been superseded by the Presidential Decree is irrelevant. Anyone with the slightest bit of integrity would acknowledge that and apologise for knowingly or otherwise attempting to mislead.
The fact that you cannot acknowledge the validity of a straightforward fact flags up that you have only posted with a desire to mislead other investors. Quite shameful but sadly not uncommon these days on anonymous internet forums.
This is an irrelevant link as the irreversible Presidential Decree giving full planning permission followed. It's disappointing to see individuals post links that mislead investors. If the poster was so intent on researching he would surely have found the mass of references to the Presidential Decree which anyone who has done the most basic of research is irreversible. MIN is on course for a breakthrough year in 2023 and it's telling there are a lot of negative and misleading posts . It's sad that some people have no scruples in order to try and damage sentiment with misleading information. Presumably it's with a desire to buy in. Each to their own but it won't impact on the fact that Minoan is set to do very well in 2023.
For balance, the drop should also be seen in the context that the AIM all-share has dropped by 30% over recent months and tech stocks, in particular, have been hit. That said, TRAC hasn't helped matters with their radio silence. They used to be regular Twitter contributors under the Starcom name but even that has gone silent.
I sold at higher levels - quite a way off the peak - a couple of months ago as I wasn't happy with the extended silence and partial rebranding. I also began to question whether the director resignation of Avi Engel was a coincidence rather than him being unhappy with a pr plan to hype without delivering substance. He was the one director who had walked the walk with Pilat Technologies and delivered great returns for shareholders.
TRAC / Starcom seem to be perpetual 'nearly men'. They produce great products such as Lokies that the likes of DHL are so impressed with, but material sales and returns from excellent products, contracts and contacts that sound impressive always seem elusive.
If they give a positive trading update and sort out the borrowings with funding from a higher share price base then the investor returns will be impressive. For me, however, the absence of updates, the outstanding loans including the breach, the mystery distributors, the respected director departure and the legacy Starcom website failing to be rebranded are too many red flags for me.
I don't like the risk/reward balance at present but a positive trading update changes everything and then those like myself will probably regret selling. It's certainly the type of lowly market cap, illiquid share that can double on decent news. So good luck to those brave enough to stay in given the extended silence from the Company and borrowings that need addressing. I assume riddler sold out or perhaps he just no longer posts on here.
Latest score: Minoan 1.3p Arsenil 0
Still all to play for? Not really. Looks game over as Arsenal just can't shoot on target and are prone to own goals. Minoan's new Greek signing has come on and is already showing his value. He's already set-up centre forward Big Wil for his hat-trick. Minoan playing at home in Greece with the influential Greek crowd right behind them. Greece giving vouchers to encourage ticket sales and season tickets likely to be extended to 99 years.
Predicted score after the home leg in a couple of months' time: Minoan 6 p Arsenal nil with a points deduction for foul play for Arsenal.
Minoan's squad assets are valued at £47m by experts but the transfer market is on the rise in Greece and agents are finally likely to release a potentially significant higher valuation. Pundits reckon that Middle East and global interest in a takeover of the Club at a significant premium looks highly likely this year.
"We have succeeded in securing additional supplies of microchips which should enable a very strong performance in 2022 with an expected return to positive EBITDA and further growth in succeeding years."
That's a very bullish outlook for the year and the market tends to look forwards. There should be a significant valuation uplift as and when:-
1) Confirmation that the new distributor contracts are reaping rewards.
2) Further and more significant orders come in from DHL
3) Additional contracts/distributorships in the smart container sector are announced for territories such as the Far East and Europe.
News in line with 1) & 2) in particular would be transformational for the current valuation. That's what I am holding for and expectant of.
Terrific post HM, I also like to make contact with management and do so on some other shares but haven't with TRAC. Many thanks for sharing. I'll copy your post to the other board 'across the road' if you don't mind. I agree, the reply is a very strong indication that there are going to be some significant updates on DHL. No small-cap is without risk, but TRAC is a good a contender as any for being the small-cap share of the year. It might not even be a small-cap in a couple of years time if even half of the top end projections are realised. If a further contract with DHL is thrown into the mis then some might even say t42 is on trac to be a star performer!
I am sure t42 would meet the international standards rating for all their products including Lockies now, interestingly, named Smart Lock.
For Uri Hartman's linked-in talking about the Company's software and hardware products: " the only system in the world to include all the certifications for all the leading and important standards in the world."
It might be wishful thinking, but I wonder if they have renamed Lockies 'Smart Lock' because it is quite generic and therefore a suitable non branded name for integration with larger companies (such as DHL) offerings.
Interesting projected figures. Were TRAC to get anywhere close to that $10m SaaS revenues per annum then the Company should attract a 15 x SaaS revenues multiple for its sector. That's the median for U.S listed SaaS companies over a certain revenue amount and I think $10n is cited, That equates to $150m m/cap or £111m . Allowing for a little dilution that would be about 200p a share.
"As of June 30, the median valuation multiple for public B2B SaaS companies in the SCI remains near the middle of that range at 15.5x ARR. " https://www.saas-capital.com/blog-posts/private-saas-company-valuations-q2-2021-update/
Notes: this s for publicly listed companies in the U.S. and some attract much higher multiples and a case could be made that were TRAC to reach $10m SaaS revenues the growth would be exponential and should therefore attract a higher multiple than the median. I couldn't find figures for the UK but probably the U.S. companies get U.S. listed tech companies do tend to get assigned higher valuations but, regardless, TRAC should get a very substantive re-rating over the coming year or so.