RE: Thank you Robjm6613 Jan 2026 10:33
I completely agree Stebo, and the more you look at it the more it feels deliberate rather than conservative by accident. KEFI only ever needed a 1Moz reserve / 1.7Moz resource to make Tulu Kapi financeable and attractive to banks. That box was ticked years ago, so there was no incentive to inflate numbers early or give away upside.
By keeping the resource tight and conservative, Harry has effectively ring-fenced a lot of the long-term value. The streaming deal is now clearly limited to the current surface mining licence, which means any upside from lower cut-off grades, underground development, satellite deposits or recovered surrounding licences sits largely outside the stream. That’s a big win for shareholders.
Your point on cut-off grades is spot on. When gold prices move from $1,250 to $4,000-4,600, it's not just adding marginal ounces, it's fundamentally changing the economic reality of the orebody. As you say, even modest extensions in strike or depth can translate into very large increases in volume. That’s basic geometry, and it’s why resource growth at this stage can be dramatic.
Add in the potential processing of historic spoil heaps, which were previously uneconomic, and suddenly there are multiple layers of upside that weren’t counted in the original model. Even at lower recoveries, that material can add meaningful value in today’s price environment.
I also think the 12-year job ads are telling. Companies don’t plan staffing like that unless they see a long mine life ahead of them. Inevitably, TK is ultimately going to be well north of the published 1.7Moz. Whether it ends up 3Moz or more will depend on drilling, but it should be a lot of upside without even factoring in taking on the over-pegged areas with Askari which will be resolved in the background.
Seen in that light, the way the financing has been structured looks very smart. Get the mine built on conservative numbers, protect the upside, and let the geology and gold price do the rest.