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Excellent summary Wil. It has been a long and patience-testing investment. At current levels, however, it looks one of the least risky potential multi-baggers on the market:-
* Cash sorted for approximately a year,
* The loan sorted
* Solid and astute backers such as Aberdeen Asset Management retiring CEO, Martin Gilbert. A compelling endorsement if ever there was one
* Covid19 and social distancing making Min's project an enticing investment in an idyllic location for the high net worth market.
* Greece being one of the more stable and attractive places to invest with the Govt placing a particular emphasis on encouraging high-end tourism projects.
8.75p would be nice but the project value could be worth up to 100m based on past comments by those close to the project. That would give upside to circa 18p. I don't envisage that.
I like to be circumspect and keep expectations in check and, who knows, there may be a bit more dilution. The figures point to an ultimate 8.75p plus but given the history and current share price, my own target is 5p to 6p. Regardless, the risk/reward appears highly compelling.
Yes, a bit of an odd conspiracy given the miniscule volume - particularly the bit about Bosch. A couple of posters have researched some interesting factual research snippets that is supportive of potentially positive developments with Bosch. For me, that's one of the pluses of a forum rather than 24,000 repetitive one-liners from the likes of our friend Dougal. If I was a conspiracy theorist (which I am not) I'd think that the sellers or traders currently out of the stock are those that don't want to hear factually based potentially positive developments about a partner to a 4m m/cap company that happens to be a global giant.
I think a more likely 'conspiracy theory' is that the MM's like to keep a flat book for small caps on low volume days in volatile markets hence the wide spreads and trading patterns.
Good to hear your security company is doing well Ed, if it's representative of the sector as a whole then that bodes well for Lokies and general security via tracking.
It's been interesting to see how once any stock gets associated with the prospect of Corinavirus related trade then the share price takes off with momentum. In the main, this has been the obvious companies such as those developing or being involved with potential vaccines, N4P & SNG and also the cleaning companies e.g. (BYOT). We'll see if security and tracking companies follow suit. If so, then STAR could be re-rated more than we might envisage. There will be a lot of investors looking for the next sector to benefit and moving their profits from the sectors mentioned. We'll see.
The fact that the relationship with Bosch is hopefully going to the next stage is also very encouraging as well. I'd still like to see an investment from the Bosch venture cap fund. It's not needed given the director loans, but not needing funds puts STAR in a solid position of financial strength to negotiate any potential Bosch investment.
Excellent news and a real vote of confidence from those at the sharp end who know all there is to know about the business going forward. The 4m warrants at 1.5p also provide a ready source of funding and even more management alignment for some of the anticipated large orders (Lokies etc.) that have already been alluded to by the Company.
At a time when personnel can't always secure sites and goods with a physical presence, a remote locking system with security alerts should be in demand. It also seems clear that coronavirus is going to increase demand for tracking goods. At some stage the Company will be bought out I think but at a multiple of current levels.
Absolutely spot on GLR, it's an emphatic endorsement of future prospects for any stock to finish blue on a day like today.
To answer your question Dougal, 'how certain are you?' the exact answer is 82.2345% (rounded down to four decimal places). That's a FACT, mainly on the basis I have put 'fact' in capital letters so it's therefore indisputable. I hope that helps.
Reiterated the forecast circa $10m for 2021 which equates to exponential growth. Staggering that a tech company with exponential growth, good EBITDA profit, blue-chip clients and an array of products (eggs not just in one basket) is valued with such a lowly m/cap. At some stage, there will be a significant re-rating, a strategic investment by the likes of the Bosch Venture Capital fund or perhaps even takeover. Good to see another director do the interview and he came across very well. Hard to say what will trigger a re-rating but it might just be something like a decent Lokies contract and that prospect has already been flagged up by STAR.
All coming together very nicely it seems. From the rns, Starcom received $200k for just 'a few hundred orders' within a trial period. Clearly the orders were kept to a minimal number as the trial objective was to assess the quality of the product.
The trial has obviously been very successful. It would be interesting to know what the ball-park orders expectation are and what 'a significant increase' will mean, but I would assume a multiple of a few hundred orders now the trial has finished. Perhaps it's too simplistic to say that equates to multiples of $200k as that sum might include a trial fee but I think it's going to be a very meaningful addition to turnover. So, it's yet another sector to add to Zero that is flagged up as likely to have additional meaningful revenues this year.
Starcom now has a product that has passed a trial successfully and is third party endorsed for its quality and safety: "CubeMonk has received very positive feedback from the end-users in the trial'). So, as the rns implies, some additional airlines are likely to enter into contracts as well given the product has passed its trial period very successfully. Allenby might have to up their revenue projections for 2020 I think.
Riddler, I don't think that and I said as such, I merely pointed out the clarity of wording isn't as crystal clear as it should be. I'm not sure if Avi Hartmann writes the rns's but, good CEO that he is, his English is far from perfect. Starcom do the important things well, but PR and highlighting their progress could be better.
I also hope and believe Lokies is the most innovative smart lock and will pick up sales outside Russia. Since you believe likewise, why didn't you assign more than $2m for Lokies in 2020 given that Starcom's projected figure relates solely to expectations from Russia?
Yes, the $2m for 2020 is solely linked to the Russian distributor which is exceptionally good in itself if achieved.
The only issue is whether the Russian distributor has global exclusivity or whether the exclusivity is confined to Russia. The wording, to me at least, isn't crystal clear:- "The agreement is for three years and provides exclusivity to the distributor in Russia, subject to them meeting certain targets."
Do they mean the distributor residing in Russia and therefore exclusivity full stop (global)? Or, alternatively, do they mean the distributor with rights solely for the Russian territory?
If it is the latter and they are targetting $2m solely for Russia then clearly the possibility of much higher revenues for Lokies exists for 2020. I think there is some legislation related to transporting goods on Russian Railways that is helpful in getting Lokies contracts within Russia hence Starcom's focus but, regardless, the Company's positivity about prospects for Russia bodes well for other territories as well.
This tweet (copied below) caught my eye and might be worthy of further research. I don't think STAR have ever announced that the potential U.N. deal has ever been concluded with the other competitor. I wouldn't put 'potential U.N. deal' towards the top of the list of the bull points for STAR simply because it was so long ago and nothing has materialised, however, the tweet below is interesting :-
#star #starcom Pretty sure the contract in Ukraine is with osce(part of UN /European peacekeeping initiative ).We were awarded a contract with them in 2016 .So maybe the U.N. deal is not dead?
I've held for about six months and really pleased to see such an encouraging trading update. The foundations are there to have an excellent 2020. The stock seems 'under the radar' for investors but I recall Pilat Media was very low profile and then tripled before their takeover. Hopefully STAR can do more than triple over the next year or two given the absurdly low m/cap of 4.3m. That could happen short-term with a decent contract or two or longer-term through consistent and gradual improvement of the numbers.
I had hoped for some larger announced contracts for Lockies this year, but with 500 existing sales and the Russian Railways legislation change then 2020 could be an excellent year for this product and likewise with Zero and Bosch. I wonder if we will get another Michael Rosenburg interview on Proactive. The last one was good and STAR do need to give themselves a bit more visibility in the investment community.
Today will be a good test of PJ's theory. It's not the news that most shareholders wanted to hear: licensing talks for MED100 off until successful completion of phase 3, still looking for a CSD100 licensee, pain relief in limbo until UK regulatory authorisation is received and funding being currently sought.
So, on the face of it, not good news so most would expect a drop. That said, if a price for the currently sought funding has already been provisionally agreed then the share price might be stable. The news today for the wider investment community might already be in the price. Today's share price action will definitely be interesting in terms of looking at PJ's clear investment analysis, that is downtrend already completed and uptrend commenced.
Chartist, you say you feel sorry for me and 'my club' . Firstly, as I have just posted, I don't hold and, secondly, who is my club? I am a Bristol City supporter so you might feel sorry for 'my club' for messing up on potential promotion last year but in the context of N4P I am not and never have been a member of any 'club'. Thank-you for thinking of me but I suspect based on your previous posts it was just a silly comment. Full marks for consistency though.
Chartist2, I also feel sorry for holders. I sold some time back but didn't want to be negative on a stock I no longer held hence I just haven't posted since. Anyway, since you asked I will post what I perceive to be the pros and cons.
Reason for selling:-
Nuvec development is very early stage compared to the timescale Nigel Theobald depicted in the November presentation. Subsequent news releases backtrack on that presentation and I didn't like that. I didn't feel Sildenafil is their best reformulation product and had concerns about the bioequivalence claims. Actually my basis for investment was more a case of liking Nuvec prospects more than Sildenafil but the latter added balance and helped the risk / reward.
Secondly the IPO document suggests some issues about patents regarding Nuvec. It's usually a process of narrowing down but it would be good to see clarification from NT. I did ask some queries in an email and didn't hear back from Nigel.
Lastly, some of the large holders are no longer locked in from this month and I felt there might be a placing to take Sildenafil through with higher royalties after self-funding phase 2 / 3 trials. I didn't envisage Sildenafil wouldn't pass this trial though.
The positives:-
it's probably not a major issue to tweak things and eventually get Sildenafil through the PK trials. It shouldn't be too costly either. There are only 12 participants. My preference is they run with one of their other reformulations. I think two have a bigger potential market size and have more medical need. They would have to do a funding though for that.
If N4P just run with Sildenafil and do some tweaking to get through the PH trial then N4P have funds until next year because of the warrants exercised earlier that bought in about 800k.
Always a chance of another early stage Nuvec deal. It will be early stage development though and not the sort of deal that will fund the Company and that contrasts with how NT presented things in his November presentation.
I don't have a position and probably view it more of a trading stock until I can see some prospect of accelerating progress with Nuvec. There is also a credibility issue in that I don't feel NT sufficiently flagged up the risk with the Sildenafil study so that has a knock on effect on credibility for his statements in general and specifically any Nuvec studies. Hugh presented it almost as a given it would pass and, given he has flagged up he speaks regularly with NT, then I don't blame him.
I can see Nuvec will have a greater degree of difficulty and much longer timeframe than Nigel intimated last November. If it works though and they can get deals that validate that prospect then N4P is still that elusive ten bagger. Just somewhat more riskier than I originally perceived based on Nigel's November presentation.
A lot of Trump's actions will be to retain a majority in Congress and the Senate in order to prevent any investigations that could lead to impeachment. I heard one plausible reason on the radio that Trump withdrew from the Iran deal primarily to win the high turn out Jewish vote that will be decisive in marginals. The bigger picture is that WSG with a contract in place should be one of the SME players to get European support to show Iran that Europe can implement practical actions as well as words of support for the nuclear deal.
Interesting interview H&N. Mogherini is impressive and determined on this issue. From 21.45 in your link "Most of all I think we can do a lot with small and medium enterprises...potentially a huge field for development for the economy and job creation in Iran". Talks about supporting small to medium enterprises and the role of the European Investment Bank.
You can always tell the ones that have sold and its embarrassingly obvious. Presumably carpking has moved into his favourite high risk oil stock . That's fine as we all making buying and selling decisions but I wish people wouldn't be so classless or shameless and either remain quiet or be transparent. I think WSG looks a solid hold given the increase in SL flights, the pipeline outside of Iran, the extension of the loan notes and the more than decent chance of a 24m per annum 15 year contract pushing through in the coming weeks or months. Any positive news on Europe standing firm and implementing measures to protect European firms should see the stock trend back up to 20p pre contract exchange. A signed contract with commencement dates could see anywhere between 50p and 100p so whether the stock price slips a penny or trends up a bit in the absence of news isn't overly irrelevant to non traders.
Good detailed and transparent report. As bamb says it was good to hear the contract is for 15 years as that figure wasn't mentioned in the last rns. Another managed services contract in the offing (no guessing on location allowed!) and a very positive statement :- 'Our business is set to benefit from unprecedented growth opportunities, particularly with our airport security operations, and it is essential we have the right strategies, people, processes and systems in place to successfully deliver such growth. Accordingly, the changes we have made to date and intend to make over the coming months will, I believe, serve the Company well and greatly assist our planned growth. Business Outlook Our business is now in a better position than it has been for some time in terms of management, structure, revenues and prospects.'
The travel business is worth circa 6m which is slightly less than the current debt. It's a decent enough profitable little business doing well in this financial year:- " Meanwhile trading for the (Travel) Division for the first fiscal quarter is significantly ahead of the same period last year - unaudited First Quarter Gross sales are up 15%, Commission is up 10%, with the difference largely accounted for by a change in sales mix." Sensibly imo MIN have decided to structure themselves as a debt free business and just retain the Crete land asset worth a multiple of their current m/cap. The outlook for commercial and residential property in Greece is good for this year and improving. I assume MIN will get a partner but, subject to permission, they could sell it outright. I suspect though it will be a partnership and a less than 50% sale of their stake. With the land with planning permission being valued at 100m with planning permission in 2011 it will be interesting to see what the current value is now.
All rather irrelevant aside from the published facts that the travel business is profitable and they will be selling it for an amount that pretty much clears debts. The bigger picture is that MIN will, as it stands, will be almost debt free post the travel business sale with an asset (with with irreversible planning permission and interested parties) worth between circa �60m and �100m (2011 valuation). Current market cap 14.5m. With Greece economy recovering and set for growth of 2.6% this year and commercial and residential property prices increasing then the current valuation gives potential for a very significant uplift - particularly after the travel business sale is completed when I envisage there will be news about partners etc.