Member Info for Nickderby

Sanchez, incredible prospects.
Incredible growth potential.

That's why the PE ratio should be 25 plus!

As I said this morning, current production capacity, FeV at $100 and costs of $30, generates BMN £109m post tax.
A PE of 15 gives £1.47.

Surprisingly close to SP Angel's £1.34.

This really is just the start, the lowest rung of the ladder.

It's incredible what we can achieve solely taking into account Vametco.

BMN is so much more than just Vametco :)

Too tempting, another 100k at 25.25p.

When the strike finishes we will march on to new highs.

The fundamentals and everything else is so perfect for Bushveld at the moment.

Its been said many times.... THE PERFECT STORM :)

SP Angel say £1.34, I can buy that for 25.2p :).

So just had another 100k.
Great value!

If you look at the sensitivity analysis on yesterday’s Arc broker note, they say $80 FeV price and Rand/$ rate of 13 gives us a share price of 95.8p. Using a discount rate of 5%, they have a share price of £1.58. The next 12 months will be life changing for all long term shareholders. Cash elephant! :)

Nice confirmation of our figures.
£1.34 at current FeV prices.

FeV prices are certainly going higher from here.

Supply shortage.
Increasing demand through China rebar strengthening and VRFBs.
No new supply for 3-5 years.

Oh yes! :)

After today's latest FeV rise, all regions must be sitting above $90 per kg!

When we acquired Vametco in 2017, I considered an FeV price of $50 per kg to be an excellent target for huge profits (dreamland).

We are certainly well beyond 'dreamland' territory now and there is no sign of it ending.

The supply deficit remains, the demand is increasing and there is no significant new supply coming on line for 3 to 5 years.

Fantastic! :)

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

'Prices soar on thin supplies, offers rise above $90/kg.

Key data from the Wednesday September 12 pricing session in Europe.

Key drivers - Tight supplies in the European ferro-vanadium market sparked strength this week, with the upper end of the market surpassing $90 per kg. - Few consumers and traders were holding notable stocks so continued to show interest in the spot market amid rapidly rising prices. - More than 70 tonnes of ferro-vanadium were...'

FeV to hit $100 this month? :)

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3832480/Vanadium/VANADIUM-SNAPSHOT-Prices-soar-on-thin-supplies-offers-rise-above-90kg.html

When the illegal strike is over, investors will be diving in to get their £2 coins for just 30p.
Bargain! :)

After 5,000 tonnes pa, we progress to 10,000 tonnes pa. You can double up the share price projection again! Plus our other assets.... Incredibly exciting times ahead :)

Then if we move on to 2020, solely for Vametco... We have forecast production of 5,000 tonnes, FeV remaining at $100 per kg, costs of $30 per kg and our share 75%. That gives pre tax profits of $263m, which is £202m pre tax, £145m post tax. Fair PE 15? - gives a share price of £1.96. Fair PE 25? - gives a share price of £3.27. I know they seem crazy prices but they are only for Vametco at 5,000 tonnes pa. Incredible!

I have updated yesterday’s post for $100 FeV prices, because at the rate prices are rising, this will be conservative for 2019! Looking at things conservatively for 2019... We have production of 3,750 tonnes, FeV at $100 per kg, costs of $30 per kg and our share 75%. That gives pre tax profits of $197m, which is £152m pre tax, £109m post tax. Our forward PE at 23.5p is very low at just 2.39. Fair PE 15? - gives a share price of £1.47. Fair PE 25? - gives a share price of £2.45.

‘The Company has taken all reasonable steps to urge workers to stop the illegal strike and return to work. These steps include: -- Applying for an interdict/injunction to declare the industrial action illegal and order a stop to intimidation of non-striking workers as well as to obstructing access to the mine for other workers. The Company advises that to date: -- Its application to the labour court was granted with an order (a) to all striking workers to return to work and (b) for all harassments and obstruction of access to the mine and plant to stop, failing which they would be held in contempt of court.’ BMN seems to think it is illegal and so do the courts!

What a great day!

Well done to Fortune. It has taken a few months to finally get this deal over the line, but it was certainly worth the wait.

$20m and no dilution. Much better than we all expected, incredible!

Let's get this illegal strike sorted and we will be on our way to the £1 party!

Roll on tomorrow :)

Up 5p now, what a day.
I need a new calculator!

Who knows, maybe another 4-5p tomorrow, after the strike is over?
Bring it on..... :)

Pdub,agreed.
It seems crazy that we can still buy at 24p even after the Sojitz news.

Easy money, once the illegal strike is over.

The FeV price has risen by around $10 per kg this week. On max production, that gives additional revenue of $37.5m pa. The only additional cost thereon is royalties at 7%. Therefore this adds $26.2m to Bushy’s bottom line (37.5m x 0.93 x 75%) - incredible. The strike costs us around 60 tonnes per week, that’s around $2.9m reduced gross profits - (90-25) x 60 x 75%. Minimal cost in comparison with the gains that will be made on the FeV price rise, as soon as the strike is over. Therefore profit guidance should be getting significantly higher. 75% of Vametco, amazing! :) Cash elephant!

It failed, not a huge surprise.
They really ought to increase the offer, if they are not willing to sell at the current offer.

MMs are a strange breed.

No shares available at 23p.
I've put in a 100k 'fill or kill' buy to see what happens.

Currently 22.15p to buy, 21.65p to sell