Member Info for Nickderby

It will be sorted soon enough. Then just look at the cash generation with FeV prices of $100 per kg and the phase 2 upgrade completed taking us to 3,750 tonnes pa!

FeV prices beyond my wildest dreams.

Dreamland! :)

A very astute observation!

That seems a good start.

A mass frenzy of buying to start in anticipation of the remaining workers coming back today?
We can always hope :)

Has anyone noticed that we seem to have crept back into the top 80 AIM shares :)

https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_AIM_All-Share/market-capitalization/desc

Phase 2 upgrade increased max production capacity to 3,750 tonnes pa, so around 72 tonnes per week at maximum capacity.

Expert, I posted this the other day. ‘I’ve had a look at the stock position and it appears that we have plenty of stocks to see us through the current strike. Finished goods at 31st December 2017 were around 312 tonnes. H1 - we sold 43 more tonnes than we produced, leaving around 269 tonnes at 30th June 2018. H1 - we sold around 54 tonnes per week, meaning we have around 5 weeks worth of stock. Sales shouldn’t therefore be affected by the strike for some considerable time.’ Hope that helps :)

Cindercone, as far we know deliveries are still being made, so customers should be fine at the moment. BMN’s stocks are adequate to keep supplying customers for around 5 weeks. As for customers going elsewhere, there is a huge supply deficit and surely they will have great difficulty getting supplies from other producers.

The missing bit is v o x markets.co.uk

A summary of the latest broker targets.

SP Angel - 34.2p.
Their target increases to £1.34 at an FeV price of $85 per kg.

**************************************/articles/sp-angel-s-morning-view-miners-gain-amid-fragile-risk-on-sentiment-a112914/ (v o x markets)

ARC - 36.2p.
Their target increases to 95.8p at an FeV price of $80 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 13.

Or using a discount rate of 5%, ARC have a share price target of £1.58.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Bushveld-Minerals-increases-underlying-interest-in-Vametco-to-75.pdf

For 2019, my calculations show Vametco being worth £1.46.

This is based on current maximum capacity of 3,750 tonnes, FeV at $100, costs of $30 and a PE of 15.

A PE of 25 gives a target price of £2.43.

FeV prices are now well over $90 per kg and when you consider the supply/demand position over the coming 3-5 years, high vanadium prices are definitely here to stay.

All the above targets show why BMN is just at the beginning of its journey north.

Cash elephant! :)

DYOR.

Abbynparit, you are correct.

We are assuming that the brownfield is Vanchem, which has been closed for a number of years.
Therefore, we will have not only the cost of the production facilities themselves but also we will have the cost of the maintenance making it fit for purpose again!

I would not like to estimate this figure, but suffice to say it will be significantly cheaper than building production facilities from scratch.

I'm sure FM will get us a very good deal though :)

As you say, with the current price of FeV sky high, Vametco cash will be partly used for the cost of acquisition.

Charlie, no. Off out now. Enjoy! :)

PE ratios are based on growth. The higher the growth the higher the PE ratio. We all know that they growth prospects here are incredible. Just consider our potential growth prospects with production growth through Vametco, Brits and Mokopane. Plus brownfield acquisition, plus electrolyte production, plus VRFBS, plus Eskom, BE, Lemur, Afritin. Also, the huge structural vanadium supply deficit. This will be even greater in November when the new Rebar regs kick in. High growth means high PE! :)

YTSS, I don't think it is a major problem for future PE ratios.
Bear in mind the average PE ratio on the JSE is 15.

Our growth prospect warrant a much higher PE than the average.

Then if we move on to 2020, solely for Vametco... We have forecast production of 5,000 tonnes, FeV remaining at $100 per kg, costs of $30 per kg and our share 75%. That gives pre tax profits of $263m, which is £202m pre tax, £145m post tax. Fair PE 15 - gives a share price of £1.96. Fair PE 25 - gives a share price of £3.27. This only includes Vametco at 5,000 tonnes pa. After 5,000 tonnes pa, we progress to 10,000 tonnes pa and beyond. You can double up the share price projection again :)

Looking at things conservatively for 2019... We have production of 3,750 tonnes, FeV at $100 per kg, costs of $30 per kg and our share 75%. That gives pre tax profits of $197m, which is £152m pre tax, £109m post tax. Our forward PE at 26p is very low at just 2.64. Fair PE 15 - gives a share price of £1.48. Fair PE 25 - gives a share price of £2.46.

It seems that $100 per kg FeV prices will be smashed this week.
Boom! :)

'Chinese vanadium pentoxide flake market sees chaotic price increase'

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/chinese-vanadium-pentoxide-flake-market-sees-chaotic-price-increase/

'Amid the marked contradiction between supply and demand, the suppliers of ferrovanadium keep increasing offering prices but show little interest on selling. The quotations for ferrovanadium 50# are quite varied. In recent two days, many offers sit at 320000 rmb/ton by cash but there is still high price at 365000 rmb/ton by cash. The price gap reaches 45000 rmb/ton. Among chaotic offering prices, many traders just make a quotation as a try, in order to know clearly about the current market. Their inventories and the willingness of trading remain to be seen.'

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/the-gap-of-fev-quotations-reaches-almost-50000-rmb-ton/

'Chinese vanadium price indexes soar again'

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/chinese-vanadium-price-indexes-soar-again/

950k shares sold in batches of 50k, 100k, 200k and 250k in the first 63 minutes.

Yet I can still only buy 75,000 shares at 26p and sell 250,000.