Member Info for Nickderby

Max buy at 40p is 25,000 shares before it goes to NT.

At least ARC do give us the sensitivity analysis tables on page 4.

With FeV at $100 per kg and ZAR/$ at 14, we get a share price of £1.29.
Similarly with a discount rate of 5% we get a share price of £2.08.

That is more like it! :)

ARC have even lower FeV prices for 2019 and 2020 than SP Angel.
What don't these guys understand...

There is not enough supply to meet even the demand before the Chinese rebar requirements were changed!

At the risk of revving up Knuttie into a frenzy, it is difficult to see how the following statements can be said in the same broker note.

'The supply situation looks so serious to us that we cannot see where the market will source sufficient vanadium to meet demand for strengthened steel in the global construction sector.
The steady rise in ferro-vanadium prices in China and Europe highlights a severe shortage of available material indicating a lack of available stock the development of a significant market deficit.
The few primary producers in the market appear wholly incapable of expanding to meet demand in the next two years with so much by-product, slag, production removed from the market.'

And
'Our ferro-vanadium price assumptions rise to US$75/kgV for 2018, 2019 and 2020.

So no vanadium supply and won't be able to source enough to cover even rebar requirements but prices are going to drop from the current levels of circa $125 per kg, to $75 per kg!

Interesting... :)

Still nothing included for BE which looks like being another cash elephant! :)

'We have yet to add value for Bushveld Energy which is 84% owned by the group and is working to deploy vanadium redox flow batteries in grid as well as industrial applications in South Africa. '

Pb940, thanks.

'Target Price raised to 87p (from 37p) '

That's more like it!
For starters.... :)

Ophidian, I'll go with your figures!

Mine are only based on Vametco at 5,000 tonnes pa for 2020.
Brownfield, Mokopane and BE then comes to £10.89 per share :)

Bassguy, haha :) Also, I calculate an earnings per share for H2 2018 of around 3.5p. The market should be able to double that up for the full year, giving an 7p forward EPS. Using a PE of 15, we get a share price of £1.05 after Q4 results :) On a similar basis, I have 2019 earnings per share of 12.3p, giving a share price of £1.85. 2020 earnings per share at 16.4p, giving a share price of £2.46. Just for Vametco! Bring it on :)

The increasing vanadium price is great to see, we barely have a pull back before it’s off again. It’s just relentless! The perfect storm is playing out very nicely for us all. We are now so far beyond dreamland, it’s just incredible. The Q4 figures in January are going to be absolutely astronomical. I can’t wait :) If the FeV price keeps rising, £1 per share could easily come shortly after the Q4 figures are published. 2019 is going to be mind blowing for shareholders... DYOR of course :)

BMN has positioned itself into an incredibly strong position. The market is struggling to keep up with everything but will no doubt catch up soon. Just to keep things simple.... Vanadium demand significantly exceeds vanadium supply and this will continue for a minimum of 2/3 years. This shortage, together with other current events. (Chinese rebar etc), will generate a vanadium supply deficit of around 20% per annum. If VRFB demand takes off as expected, the vanadium deficit will be much greater than this. Therefore, although vanadium prices are already around multi year highs, they are likely to keep rising over the coming months and years. Excellent news for Vametco profitability! Vametco production costs are very low. Vametco is debt free and even made a profit during the low point in the vanadium cycle. Vametco production is growing - production is currently in excess of 3,000 tonnes pa and now has a maximum capacity of 3,750 tonnes pa. Vametco will increase production capacity to over 5,000 tonnes pa by the end of next year. A brownfield acquisition will increase this production significantly. We have one of the largest, high grade, low cost vanadium resources in the world. Everything else is an additional bonus - Mokopane vanadium, Brits vanadium, electrolyte production, Imaloto coal, iron ore, titanium, phosphate, Afritin Ltd and Bushveld Energy VRFBs! Then there is the demonstration VRFB with Eskom, which as we all know has incredible potential - see BBN’s recent posts! The Mokopane mining licence is imminent. Offtakes and development news must be very close when you look at Mokopane profitability. Even the SA political situation has improved significantly under Ramaphosa. It is definitely time to relax and enjoy. Bushveld - simply the best! We have such a long way to go.... :) DYOR

There will be lower production in Q3 but also higher profits due to the increasing FeV price. Any drops in share price will be massively bought into. The only way is up! :)

Quote to buy 30,000 is at full ask - 40p.

Up to 52nd now, so inclusion after this month's review is looking a formality.

45p per share would get us up to 40th position and inclusion in the AIM50.
Certainly not out of the question! :)

Daisydog, you’re welcome.
It was difficult keeping everyone positive in the early days of ever decreasing share price, but I kept trying.

Totally worth it!

I’m so pleased that we all stayed the course and can now reap the incredible rewards ahead.

What a great team :)

Messdog, the deadline is 6 months after the year end, so around 28th June 2019.

1210, fine thanks. I have to say, my portfolio is looking rather healthy. What a week! :)

Just for you Pdub... Q3 figures are due any day now. Although impacted by the industrial action, they should still be very good due to the increasing FeV price. Q4 results will be astronomical. 2019 figures will be absolutely incredible. But it’s not all about the quarterlies, it’s the upcoming news that will move the share price into orbit. We have a very exciting last two months of 2018 coming up. In no particular order... Soaring vanadium prices caused by the structural supply deficit. News of any phase 3 production upgrades carried out during the industrial action. Mokopane mining licence. Mokopane plans - news of early revenue generation. Brits vanadium drilling news, very high grades expected, thereby reducing Vametco production costs even further. Brits vanadium JORC. Vametco drilling results. Bushveld Energy business model cash flow capabilities and valuation details. Bushveld Energy contracts. Eskom VRFB news. Electrolyte production news. Brownfield acquisition (Vanchem?) to increase our production capacity further. Imaloto coal BFS. Imaloto coal platform sale/spin off. Afritin production commencing Q4. Dividend policy information - H2. Johannesburg listing. Possible suitors looking to take over/partner with one of ‘the most significant, lowest cost, vertically integrated vanadium companies in the world’?? Etc! DYOR of course :)

Sorry Nin, just going out.
Maybe tomorrow.

What a day!
What a week so far!
What a November coming up! :)

is just 30,000 shares at 34.5p.
We're going higher! :)

Here we go! :)