Member Info for Nickderby

In their latest broker note, ARC are forecasting BMN’s net profit after tax to be £49.4m for 2018. ARC are using 2,625 tonnes of production and are also using a conservative FeV price of $77.6 per tonne. We are way above these pricing levels at the moment. Yet they still manage to forecast £49.4m post tax profits for 2018. Not too shabby! A PE of 15 would give a market cap £741m, 66p per share. A PE of 25 would give a market cap £1,235m, 110p per share. Not bad based on production of just 2,625 tonnes pa and low FeV prices of $77 per tonne. There's significant upside on both the FeV price and annual production for 2019. Bear in mind maximum capacity is now up to 3,750 tonnes pa and FeV is around $125 per kg and rising. The vanadium structural supply deficit is going nowhere! Roll on 2019 and way beyond £1 per share :) DYOR of course.

All the fundamentals point to a significantly higher share price than current levels. What do we have? High vanadium demand. Insufficient vanadium supply. World vanadium structural supply deficit. FeV already around multi year highs. New Chinese rebar rules last month will generate even greater vanadium demand and push prices up further. Vametco profitability is incredibly high at current FeV prices. Minimal capex is required to increase production to 5,000 tonnes pa. World class Mokopane vanadium. Mokopane mining licence news is expected soon! Brits vanadium, JORC coming. Vametco drilling updates. Potential brownfield acquisition taking our maximum production capacity to 10,000 tonnes pa. Bushveld Energy contracts. Details of the PV project BE are currently working on. Eskom VRFBs. Electrolyte production. UET final partnership details. Leasing partner news. Imaloto coal, BFS due. Dividend policy is being discussed in this month. JSE listing coming up. Investment in Afritin Mining - first production commencing this month. Other resources, iron ore, titanium, phosphate. Possible Chinese suitors in the background needing to satisfy their huge vanadium requirements. What a great company to be invested in :) DYOR

A summary of the latest broker targets. SP Angel - 87p. This is based on FeV prices of $75 per kg for 2019,2020 and long term prices of just $45 per kg. https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_UpgradeII.pdf ARC - 38p. But their target increases to £1.29 at an FeV price of $100 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14. Or using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $100 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £2.08. http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Q3-update_-price-strength-offsets-lower-production.pdf For 2019, my calculations show Vametco being worth £1.85. This is based on current maximum capacity of 3,750 tonnes, FeV at $125, costs of $35 and a PE of 15. FeV prices are now over $125 per kg and when you consider the supply/demand position over the coming 3-5 years, high vanadium prices are definitely here to stay. All the above targets show why BMN is just at the beginning of its journey north. Cash elephant! :) DYOR.

Bargain basement prices today.
£2 coins for 39p, get them while stocks last! :)

Now 40p to buy and sell.
They are having a serious play around this morning!

Now...

Buy 40.7p
Sell 40.55p

Its time to show buys as sells.

Currently 41.2p to buy.

993444, I think you may want to check your gross profit and market cap figures :)

Sharesahoy, I like the sounds of that.

Vametco etc conservatively £3 per share.
Bushveld Energy therefore £30 per share!

Wow, did he really say that..... :)

Gkb47, it is possible to fund growth and pay dividends.
We are not talking about a 100% dividend policy, probably nearer 25%. The vanadium price is so far ahead of where anyone forecast, super profits are available for distribution.

Dividends will attract more investors, especially IIs and will support a much higher share price.

I am fully in favour of dividends :)

A week or two of consolidating/drifting share price is healthy but also very frustrating when you look at what’s happening within the Company and what’s already happened to the vanadium price. It’s best to just concentrate on the fundamentals. Production capacity is increasing. The FeV price is increasing due to the structural deficit. This structural deficit will be around for a minimum of 3-4 years. The new Chinese rebar standards introduced this month will increase this supply deficit even further. We are already making incredible profits. Cash flows are excellent. Dividends are being discussed this quarter. Then we have huge future growth to look forward to with further production increases from Vametco, Brits and Mokopane. Also, a brownfield acquisition, electrolyte production, VRFBS, Eskom contract, BE contracts/strategic partnerships, Lemur and Afritin production. Shareholders can only lose out by selling too early. Keep things simple, concentrate on the fundamentals and remain patient. That’s my plan anyway. The sale will soon be over! But of course DYOR :)

Agreed Sanchez, it just shows how undervalued we are when comparing Vametco with Largo.
We are now so much more than just Vametco! :)

If we look at production capacity, asset share, vanadium price, together with margins, I calculate that Vametco is currently worth 60% of Largo (using 3,750 tonnes production and 74% share). Largo is still 21% off its highs at just CAD$3.64 but still has a fully diluted EV of £1.44 billion. 60% of this gives BMN a comparable value of £864 million. That is just over 77.2p per share, based on a fully diluted 1.119 billion shares. That is just for Vametco and ignores everything else. Also bear in mind that Largo is considered very undervalued at its current price. We still have a huge amount of catching up to do. Bring on Q4, BE, dividends, Mokopane etc. Coiled spring! :)

Mikhail comments are worth repeating.

"The third quarter of this year and events following immediately afterwards, have proven beyond doubt that the market for battery storage in both South Africa and Africa overall is SIGNIFICANT and IMMEDIATE.

The knowledge gained by our team in deploying a system with Eskom and designing and building an electrolyte facility will continue to give Bushveld Energy a COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE in supplying into this growing market.

Our business plan, anchored in a low cost scalable primary production platform, will allow us to MAXIMISE value for Bushveld and its shareholders along the VRFB value chain, and therefore realise the Company's vision of a deeply vertically integrated vanadium platform."

Its fair to say BE is going to be huge!

Then there is our production growth through Vametco, Brits and Mokopane.
Plus brownfield acquisition, Lemur, Afritin etc.

Also the huge structural vanadium supply deficit for the next 3-5 years is giving vanadium prices and therefore our profits a huge boost.

It may seem a big step but........FTSE100 watch out, here we come! :) :) :)

Mitch, I think MN should have got a separate mention too...

Great plans.
Great vision.
Great company.
And spectacular timing.

Well done FM, MN and the BoD :)

Bushveld Energy is going to be even bigger than anyone could have dreamed!

Great plans.
Great vision.
Great company.

Well done FM and the BoD :)

At the close I was being quoted 43.2p to buy anything over 1,000 shares and still the official offer was kept at 43p.
Largo is bouncing back today, I'm feeling a good day for us tomorrow...

Bring on the news! :)

Max buy at 43p is just 35,000 shares.
Max sell is 500,000 shares.

It must be tick up time...

The JSE listing may or may not be dilutive. It depends how it is carried out. However, raising money on the JSE to get Mokopane into production certainly wouldn’t be bad news, it would be excellent news. Just think of the profitability. The additional profits would significantly outweigh any dilution :)

Mokopane is the largest, highest grade resource in the world. It would be very capable of producing in excess of 25,000 tonnes pa. Exciting times! :)