Member Info for Nickderby

Seriously though, it was great to hear from Fortune today. What a great investment we have all made. It’s going to be a great end to 2018 :)

And dreamland! :)

Don’t forget - perfect storm! :)

Agreed Rob - cash elephant! :)

What a great interview. We have so much to look forward to. Perfect storm! :)

Such a low volume day and Chinese FeV at USD138.68-139.54/t. Incredible. You would expect a buying frenzy! An easy multi bagger from here :) DYOR

pb940, wow! FeV- USD138.68-139.54/t :)

I projected 2019 post tax profits of £138m earlier. What if we look forward to 2020, solely for Vametco. We have forecast production of 5,000 tonnes, FeV remaining at say $125 per kg, costs of $35 per kg and our share 74%. That gives pre tax profits of $333m, which is £256m pre tax, £184m post tax. A PE of 15 gives a share price of £2.49. A PE of 25 gives a share price of £4.14. This only includes Vametco at 5,000 tonnes pa. After 5,000 tonnes pa, we progress to 10,000 tonnes pa and beyond. You can double up the share price projection again :)

A few weeks of consolidating share price is healthy but also very frustrating when you look at what’s happening to the vanadium price. It’s best to just concentrate on the fundamentals. Production is increasing, the FeV price is increasing massively due to the structural deficit. This structural deficit will be around for a minimum of 3-4 years. The new Chinese rebar standards being introduced in November will increase this deficit even further. We are already making incredible profits. Cash flows are excellent. Dividends are being discussed in H2. Then we have huge future growth to look forward to with further production increases from Vametco, Brits and Mokopane. Also, a brownfield acquisition, electrolyte production, VRFBS, Eskom contract, BE, Lemur and Afritin production. Shareholders can only lose out by selling too early. Keep things simple, concentrate on the fundamentals and remain patient. That’s my plan anyway. But of course DYOR :)

Excellent post Daisan.
It is interesting to see just how far the forward PE has fallen over the last 18 months.

It won’t last forever! :)

Faramog, the royalty is a tax deductible expense and is included in my total costs figure of $35 per kg.

When you consider that FeV prices are already well in excess of $100 per kg, who knows what they could achieve in 2019. The supply deficit won’t be going anywhere for a few years. Demand is increasing and only very limited new supply is coming on line. FeV is again expected to fly this week. Firstly - FeV price. In my forecast I’m using an FeV price of $125 per kg for 2019 - which could prove to be conservative when you look at the current frenzy! Secondly - Costs. Total costs in H1 were around $29 per kg. Production will increase in 2019 and so average costs per kg should fall, but I am going to be conservative and use $35 per kg in my figures. Finally - Production. Production will be 3,750 tonnes pa at 1st January 2019 and then increasing up to 5,000 tonnes by the end of the year. Therefore, you would expect production for 2019 to be somewhere in between those two figures. I will use the lower production capacity of 3,750 pa to keep the forecast conservative. Using the above figures, an exchange rate of $1.3/£, Vametco share of 74%, our share of post tax profits for 2019 becomes a crazy £138m! We would only need a PE of 7.25 for our share of Vametco to be worth £1 billion. A PE of 15 gives a share price of £1.86. A PE of 25 gives a share price of £3.11. That’s just for Vametco on 3,750 tonnes of production. There’s so much more to come after that! A very exciting future lies ahead for all shareholders :)

It’s amazing that we don’t have more buyers here. In a years time when we are sitting above £1 per share, new investors will be turning up wishing they’d had the chance to buy at 27p. Well here is your chance.... :)

Pdub, hahaha. I remember my Henry days with affection :)

Vauch, it wouldn’t cause a drop if it coincided with the Chinese VRFB revolution! Just look at some of the gigantic VRFBS planned over there and around the world :)

I’ve looked back and it’s my 5th year Bushy anniversary today. What an incredible ride it’s been to date! We all had to endure a difficult share price for the first three years, then my cancer and chemotherapy treatment, which coincided with the low point of 1.2p (bid) back in November 2016. Very difficult times. But then huge positives - cancer all clear, becoming a grandad and Bushy’s transformation into a Cash Elephant! Remember we are just at the start of the Bushveld Minerals story. Here’s to the next 5 years! Good luck to all shareholders :)

Here is an update of the Mokopane economics based on the current V2O5 price. Forecast annual production per PFS - 9,525 tonnes V2O5. OPEX $7,200 per tonne. Chinese V2O5 price today is now around $29.5 per lb, which is $64,900 per tonne. Therefore gross profits of $57,700 per tonne. That gives $550m pa gross profits. That should give around $470m net profits, after royalties, depreciation and admin costs. Our share 64%. This is based on production of 9,525 tonnes pa. Potentially if the demand was there what is to stop us producing 50,000 tonnes pa. After all Mokopane is one of the largest vanadium resources in the world! Huge assets! :)

V2O5 at $29.50 per lb would increase Mokopane’s post tax NPV to $2.78 billion. Bear in mind that is for a small proportion of the Mokopane resource (about 1/6). A crazy bargain here at the moment :)

Hahaha, Loudspeaker. I think I’ve said it all before, many times! :) Nothing much more to add at the moment. I do find the current FeV prices absolutely mind blowing in terms of Bushveld’s profits. The market has to catch up soon. Then there’s all the additional news to come! Exciting times, perfect storm, dreamland and cash elephant :)

So the Mokopane mining licence is John Meyer’s fault too? Or even the Company’s fault? Come on, please. It will happen when it happens. I’m signing off for a while to get away from such nonsense.