Member Info for NicetoMichu

Thanks for the feedback Smalleyus..

That's not me selling Friday and today btw..

I still believe things will be progressive - from a mess of a 23 low base granted - here thru 24 and 25 and can still see this s/p going up to 3p area thru 24..

I wouldn't accuse Dani of masquerading

Even the rise in anticipation in the coming week/s might be decent here.. this s/p has been smashed over the years to the extent that going back towards 3p in anticipation would see wsg.l at still under 10m gbp market capitalisation.. so roll on some nice s/p tick ups here next week please !

I don't understand how the invoicing in this business works along side the product delivery ..and so ask you - who understand a lot about many aspects of this business - some questions, please:

How long after/alongside 'fertiliser' - aka 'dust' by you - delivery might HMI, on approx average even, issue an Invoice to the customer for the product delivered?

Also, is it correct for me to assume that HMI don't issue invoices ahead of actual product delivery to the customer, invoicing only ever happens alongside/after delivery

How long, on average, after an invoice has been issued might HMI expect to get paid by the customer? ( I know it could vary... there may be some bad debts too.. hence just a rough on average figure please.. including.. banks etc may lend to customer to allow pay quickly .. or some have cash saved to pay quickly .. or some may be allowed pay after their harvests have been sold etc..? Please elaborate a bit as you see fit )

I understand that some orders may be placed in one for delivery in a future quarter ..as much as for delivery in the quater they're placed in .... and some of those orders may subsequently get cancelled by the customer hence why Orders versus invoiced sales can be plenty different.. what I need to understand better is why invoiced sales can be plenty different to Invoiced and delivered sales

Smalleyus you say:

''The Q1/23 RNS stated 3,560t invoiced and delivered, but they actually invoiced far more than then 3,560t in Q1/23.''

This has me thinking that there are potentially three different target figures that could be in play here:

1) Sales Orders received (which is also referred to as 'Placed Orders' in RNS's previously and probably going forward too)

2) Sales Order Invoiced

3) Sales orders Invoiced and delivered

I apologise for overly simply assuming 2) and 3) to be effectively the same thing in my previous posts.. and not get they are different

I'll also note that Mr McMaster had 'Invoiced sales' as the basis of his targets for 2023

as in: ''invoiced sales guidance of 200,000 tonnes for FY 2023."

But

he's changed to 'placed orders' as the basis of his targets for 2024

as in: ''gives Board confidence to set 2024 sales guidance of 70,000 tonnes of placed orders.''

And we don't know exactly what he's going to feedback us of the above 1) 2) 3) in the Q1 Update.. but we can expect 'placed orders' - as in 1) above - in the Quarter to be fed back on as that's the basis of his 24 targets .. and while we could potentially get 2) Sales Order Invoiced AND 3) Sales orders invoiced and delivered ; I'll offer it's more likely we only get feedback on one of those (and/or we get something else different again .. as Mr McMaster likes moving the goal posts )

Finally, when you say : ''When I stated 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' I'm referring to invoiced only in Q1/24 irrespective of when the orders were placed.''

I do hear what you're saying .. but - per afore - offer there's another angle of complexity too in that you're referring to 'invoiced only' and not 'invoiced and delivered'

.... And I further offer that you may not even get a figure for 'invoiced only' in this upcoming Q1 24 RNS to compare your 'less than 9,000t is disappointing' shout too ?

As you may - just/instead - get 'Sales orders Invoiced and delivered '

(and/ or something else different again even)

Please correct any errors I've made above.. in case I've just confused myself - further- now?

Thanks

Michu

NicetoMichu DrMicho ...

Not relations

And all I've got in response to your below post is Gordon Bennett to Gordon Bennett's modus operandi

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2024/04/03/copper-bulls-can-see-a-record-price-of-12000t/

(thanks to Jarv55 on a n other board for this link)

PS: I do get that the target offered by B mcMaster for 24 was placed order only :

''gives Board confidence to set 2024 sales guidance of 70,000 tonnes of placed orders.''

I would have liked there to have been a target for Invoiced sales too .. as that is far more meaningful and we've discovered is generally a -very- meaningfully different - as in LOWER - number than placed orders.

But history shows us that Mr McMaster likes giving himself significant wriggle room.. and is plenty partial to smoke and mirrors too !!

Whl2, I cut and paste from that 18th April last year Q1 update here :

Sales orders received total 16,755 tonnes versus budget of 12,000 tonnes

Sales orders invoiced and delivered total 3,560 tonnes

Both Smalleyus and I are focused on invoiced sales in the trail below .. far more than orders received ..

So it's the 3560 tonnes that I'm saying will be 7000 or 8000 tonnes this year Q1 .. and also what Smalleyus is referring to when he says less than 9000 tonnes would be disappointing....

ie what I'm hoping for is approx. a doubling versus last year for Q1 ..

which I would hope would support a decent s/p rally here off the back

There are sellers and buyers at all levels lbarlow.. if you're a large seller around 2.65p then I understand you could undermine any rally.. but the market cap. here would be so low versus a business that might easily be turning itself decently around in 2024, that I would hope a significant amount of buying would be occurring here in the 2's - and 3's p even - to absorb any any such meaningful selling...

I've taken a 'placeholder' few shares here for first time yesterday.

Rocky Ride mentioned this as one he fancied over on the Save.l board and so I've been glancing in on this BB in March and doing a tiny bit of research here too .. I might do some more decent research into this thru April and might then grow out a semi decent holding here off the back..

Good luck to all fellow axl.l holders !

The cumulative fundamentals here seem clearly significantly better than the current market capitalisation.. and even including AIM on its knees and this sector therein more or less the same and allowing a discount for the 'Bird effect' on top too, this would be more fairly priced if it were currently somewhere in the 1.5p to 2p range

IMHO & DYOR

I’ll take that to be ‘You Gent ‘ Cruella.. thanks 😉

I love the ‘topple with Copl’ line btw ..fortunately, in the round - thru range trading the arris off it - that was a morsel at 1.5 k down .. you should have picked Bowleven instead of it .. or better again, any of the 11 that have gone to zero !

( O&G is my thing btw.. kept me smiling roundly through sundry other sector misery .. fortunately.. on the cesspit that is AIM )

I went a smidgeon further than that earlier Mr Bals .. but we’re very much in the same ballpark ..

Again, this is worth at least 1 Egyptian pound a share imho

Good speak Mr Zap... good speak

Speaking of activists; no fear of Mr WOS ever stopping - extremely - actively talking Matd.l s/p up to double digits, Sir .. and thereafter the moon, Sir !

There are more than a few out there that agree with ''Birdie is a waste of time as are all of his minnow largely African-based exploration companies'' Mr Art... BUT

Mr Zap and Mr OSV are not among those more than a few, clearly...

Me, I used be undecided.... now I'm not quite sure..

While I do 'ave a soft spot for the 'ave a go 'ero that is the one and only Mr Colin Bird; the s/p is the benchmark.. and Mr Bird's Co's share prices speak for themselves.

Damn, you once again beat me to the I wouldn't want to be out of this over the w/e, Ben 'owell ..

Its only Wednesday lunchtime... you're a hard man to get ahead of !!

I expecting a new Cruella pricing model is in being worked on as I type this.. steam coming off her laptop with all those macros cogitating / firing out bombshells .. ...

..not to mind the rest of the assets and current / forward cash of xtr.l ........ 5p for this latest RNS alone anyone :-)

This share is worth at least 1 - Egyptian - Pound imho

Only 5p.. you need to get past page one of that Penguin book quickly, Jezzoo, please !!