Member Info for NicetoMichu

I'd be surprised if there's not an update of some shape or form on Africa Gold before Christmas, Andrew.. especially Fairbride 'ard procesing thru the new plant.. If there were not to be then that could only be very poor news being held back in my mind ..and if no Bushranger meaningful news eaither then I'd expect the s/p to go down meaningfully in Dec.. But I'm pretty confident on some sort of update on, at least, Africa gold before Christmas, if it's average or even poor news then I still expect an update and the s/p could react somewhat badly off the back I get, but only very poor performance would see no Africa Gold update before Chrimbo in my mind..

''I actually take the fact that Joel has taken shares intend of salary as quite positive''

Me too Jamesiecake.

(And sundry others doing ditto too..)

Even I've added some shares back here.. first buy in an awfully long time for me.... thought about buying at 12p ish but didn't .. regretting that now, in fairness.. but 14p buy is far from a disaster by comparison .. not least when my average was highish 20's p ahead of that buy .. ouch

I've just done some investigating off the back of your post John4242.. which I should have done ahead of my post, in fairness, and Apols

I expect the below %'s apply to AIM too but its not specifically stated in the guide I paste them from..... but if it does apply, you would indeed be correct in the Edwards family 'presumably being over 10%'... So Apols if I was wrong in saying I guess Edwards family now less than 10% in my original post
.......................................
United Kingdom - Shareholding Disclosure summary
Major Shareholdings Disclosure Thresholds
Reaching, exceeding or falling below:
Non UK-incorporated issuer: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75% of total voting rights.
UK-incorporated issuer: 3% of total voting rights and each whole percentage point after that;
.............................
So you saying my post is ramping, is, in the round, fair enough, I accept.

D&A Holdings, Jersey (aka Edwards Family) likely - but not certainly, granted - ongoing selling has been the key driver of this s/p collapse in my mind.

Their last holdings selling update was at beginning of Sept for selling in summer where they went from 20% ish to 15% ish..

Given the s/p has been battered down harder again in Sept and Oct, I'm GUESSING they've sold a bunch more again across those two months.. and my - big - GUESS is they're holding is well under 10% now and indeed might be close to 5% of co. now.. which is generally a far smaller worry than an unhappy lead shareholder holding 20% of company.

Also this s/p is so low now versus the financial prospects that DA Holdings may well say its absolutely time to stop selling at 6p ish, whatever.. and see if the company delivers even close to what it says it will in the calander year.. because the calander year is close to done now and if the company delivers finanicals even close to what they're mooting then this s/p is a STEAL at anything under 10p imho..

So my guess is a decent to good rally is due here soon enough.. and it have legs on into year end RNS update

Thankfully, this co. is at a different level completely now versus Azerbaijain days.. although looking at the current share price that's very hard to tell, I absolutely grant you.. (under .90 here around now here is 'gut wrenching' to me)

But on revenue numbers Zen.l is on a different planet versus Azerb days, obviously ..and on revenue and future prospects together a different Solar System.

Tilapia is what this is all about for the rest of 2022 now.. ie can they get that deal over the line.. and will it be a decent or good or very good deal on paper for zen.l, is close to the be all and end all for s/p improvement here in the coming months imho..

( Tunisia, in the round, might see average over poor progress for the year if we're lucky.. but poor a clear possibility too I get.. and given fabulous Italian 2022 revenue has very sadly done little for the s.p progress, any such sp progress is just soooo.. about Tilapia now imho.. here's hoping..)

IMHO &DYOR

Tiny - tiny - volume on LSE for ies.l granted so far today- 34k ish shares traded showing as I type.... but I'd offer that the bigger size trades can generally be given longer trade reporting delay allowances.. so we may see a chunky sell or two print later today ..or tomorrow with todays date even ...etc .. hence explaining how this could go down so punchily today, I'd guess..

(Like you Joe H, I was very keen on the concept of hardcore manipulation/shorting here .. I've now cooled plenty on all such angles.... and,again, now think it's more straight forward a thing :
I don't think shorting is a meaningful issue here.. and I don't think Market Maker 'manipulation' is a meaningful issue here - small issues perhaps but not meaningful - and I think short term PI's buying/selling activities are a semi meaningful thing only here.. and long term PI panic dumping a semi meaninful thing only too. I believe the seriously meaningful thing for the s/p going from poor to bad to awful to now dire here has been and remains ongoing daily selling in at least a gentle incremental fashion and at most a very punchy fashion by existing II holderS.. that selling picks up somewhat into good buying vol days .. and somewhat nore again into very good buying Vol days .. etc.. but that selling also continues at at least a gentle pace even in very low buying volume days.. hence why this share price regularly re traces punchily in very low volume days ( and doesn't go up as much as you'd hope in high buying vol times too.. and also short term PI players are quicker to trade out of any short term play against this backdrop too.. making it harder again for this s/p to rise meaningfully even in strong buying volume times.. etc)

A decent period of constant large buying volume by size buyer(s) is the best way out of this hole.. and big size II buyer(s) the Holy Grail .. and that'll more beget size PI buying AND holding too .. .

Those II'(S) who are want down or out of this are running out of shares to sell as each day passes.. and would run out far more quickly if they could sell more again into a run of big buying volume days.. or might decide to stop selling down / out.. or even reverse plan and ad back ..etc.. Here's hoping..)

I see total volume as 109, 103 showing at this moment as traded so far today on AQSE fo Ies.pl JoeH (and see 2phevs trades listed within that too ) So no issue as far as i can see ..

i'll admit that my range trading xtr for years now having been plenty fruitful, has helped my view of CB as a cult 'ero develop, Andrew.. and, in fairness, I can understand why - plenty/many - others might take a very different view to me on CB..
Generally, it's all gambling .. and anything can happen in gambling..

I'm sure there are some on this board who would still explain away an 8p buy-out or 1mt as CB just being CB and doing his usual thing of exaggerating so we should not be surprised or even critical of him if those are the outcomes.

I'd be one of those some, Andrew.

Anything can happen 'digging' each and every 'ole(s).. and when early 'oles results are positive, human nature is almost always to get bullish....

You could equally say CB 'misled' on where the Price of Copper was going.. but people can be endlessly wrong on that... it's as nebulous as, for eg, what copper might or might not be found in that next Bushranger 'ole drilled.. etc..

I'm thinking 'Kwakers' isn't expecting an invite to CB's 79th Birthday party ?

Meanwhile, back at the fort, I continue my slow adding shares back exercise to my - now modest- holding here.. a chance this goes under 3p, I get...hence the 'slowly' adding back... but anywhere around the 3p ball park feels like a good buying opportunity to me here and now ..

IMHO & DYOR

fair enough Algu.. $50m would be a decent to good result, at this stage, in my mind.. $40 m ish would be my guess.. and the board accepting/recommending other shareholders ditto such a lowly offer .. as they're hedge fund guys owning(in decent part at least) and running an Oil Explorer.. and may well be open to walking away from what has, in the round, been a nightmare for them for any half decent amount now..

I'm with Algu here.. I thought a likely need for additional funding raised 'in due course' by whatever means possible was priced in at the very lowly 3p ish .. but it's an illiquid stock and any volume of selling can sink it further again readily.. and the spread is a mare here too ... but to me this mornings fall feels overdone.. and so I topped up a little just over 2p ..

Still, good point on mention of 'hybrid debt instruments' as one of the options might spook some Nomlungu

Generally, a brutal squared journey in this share granted, and, sadly, most long termers here are near dead now whatever, I expect...... but I still believe that, with more time again, this company might readily do ok or maybe even well in the end .. and so I remain long and strong on whats left of my bet here .. I'm 60% ish down here as I type.. ouch.... but a mid sized more than big bet for me, at least..

PS: there's got to be a chance that Perenco look to buy Bowleven out of their Etinde involvement completely soon enough , especially given Bowleven's weak financial position in 2023.. even if its for a average to poor price, that might readily be closer to 10p a share than 2p, I'd guess..

no doubt there's some dumping from short term Pi's players contributing to this latest - of many - serious fall Joe H..
...but, again, I believe thare are ii'S out there who continue their many month ongoing exercise of selling down/out long held positions here.. and are ok with doing some of that in the 20's p even... that's shocking to me, especially given recent RNS contract wins and general pregress.. but hard core gambling is a brutal game.. and nobody is making me play this game.. so best I just shut up for a while now.. and stay patient and hopeful here....

Thanks for the further feedback aandi ..

Long story a bit shorter - but not a lot shorter as it's not in my nature :-) - considerable ongoing selling by multiple II's at prices significantly, of hugely even, under their average buy prices is, imho, is a very good best guess as the very dominent reason for the fall from say 100p level - I pick that number as a large placement back end last year at that level, from memory, established a new 'base' at 100p then - on down here.. to a shockingly low level.. and that even including spurts of very significant buying volumes - by other II's and PI's too - within that journey down..

I'm taken aback by the extent/length of these ii'S selling exerciseS... and somewhat concerned - but a fair deal less so after recent RNS's, in fairness- and much annoyed.. but I continue to look to hold my nerve and wait patiently for a meaningful rally - to 50p + for eg - that I hope will come sooner rather than later..

(That said, my clear instinct - which my recent posts have hinted at - was that this would fall punchily from recently achieved 30p+ levels back down, and it is indeed in the process of doing that.. a joke but, sadly, not even unexpected to me.... as, again, I 'deduce' existing decent size II holder(s) - more so than PI's or shorters - here are fine with selling down their existing holdings in ies.l even in the 30's and 20's p..

To add to grshaws post at 9.14 am today, I'm confused on at least two of those holding % no's quoted aandi..

1) Amati are not on the 7th Oct. list at all, but is 4.9% on 21st list .. And see below to show why I'm confident Amati had 6% ish around the 6th Oct..

2) That Holding list you've posted has Schroders holding at 20.9 % on 7th and 24.6 % on 21st.. My instinct is the 20.9% might be an error and the 24.6% is correct and it was that all the time... Again see below to back that up.

I've looked back on my posting history here and co-incidentally on 6th Oct I used info from the co. website - the only place I've ever looked for such holdings info. and I looked it up just before posting, I'm sure - towards inputing to part of one of my posts... that part I paste here now:
''(With GSR Ventures only having 7 odd% and Amati Global Investors having 6 ish%, and those the second and third largest II holdrs here, on the latest large holder listing on the co's website, either of those would have to be holding off declaring going under 3% and waiting til 0 instead I feel, for it to be them . . as a few per cent selling couldn't do this overall s/p damage over this length of time, I'd guess.. and I don't know if there are circumstances where they can skip declaring when going under 3%, and just waiting til 0 ..but there may be .. Finally, with the extent of selling for so long now, I guess Schroders - by far the largest II holder here with 25% ish downsizing massively/ getting out can't be totally discounted either..'')

So. generally, I offer that the 'Bloomberg sourced data' visible in your posts today aandi, has Schroders holding at 20.9 % on 7th and 24.6 % on 21st, but my instinct is the 20.9% might be an error and the 24.6% is correct and it was that all the time.. as that ties in with my '25% ish' figure quoted above from co website on 6th.. and that alongside the clear IMHO Amati data innaccuracy issue from the 7th might easily make me wonder about accuracy of sundry other figures quoted too across various Holders across those two dates .. etc
BUT
If the figures you've referenced are still 'somewhat decently accurate in some cases' it would nicely help explain as to where all the selling was coming from during that recent -contract wins related RNS - HUGE buying volumes.. eg Capita, Abdrn and City Financial Investments selling at least 3% ish - or maybe more as they could have gone to zero.. we can't tell from the data for 21st which seems to list only above 3% when, btw, the data for the 7th had some under 3% ers too -each of the co. when the opportunity - via that huge buying volume - presented itself:
And such selling at such lowly s/p - somewhere, on average, around 25p ish lets say.. when, whatever about each II holders individual average buy price - which I dont know - the average hold price with II's generally, as we've discussed here previously, might easily be 100 p plus ish , might not be confidence inspiring g

Maybe Johnnyy meant him stopping posting on this BB is 'happenning this week' :-)

If yes, as Chuck Berry might say: Johnny(y) B. Good(e)

Maybe those tiddlers are Porvenerial/Ted changing tack and now, incrementally, putting his total returns from a lifetime of Investing in up a mountain in the middle of nowhere copper plays into xtr?

Buy in 6's or 7's or 8'sp and I expect you'll be well in the money in plenty quicker than 12/24 months here..

(The deramping that has gone on here is some of the most brutal and able I've seen anywhere.. and i've been in a lot of AIM shares in my time.. and the s/p fall has been well over done off the back imho )

PS: Merde and Smalleyus are different people imho.... but far from sure on that

IMHO & DYOR

I expect AC had hoped that a hard focus more recently on news around the wonderful things that are happening to revenue in Italy would help our s/p a lot.. but, sadly - and somewhat surprisingly to me- it hasn't, so far.

So, I agree it's now time that we were updated on Tunisia, Raincat... Not just Rob -3.. but an all encompasing Tunisia Operational update would be much appreciatd around now in my mind.
(Rob -3 might easily be delayed somewhat, I'd guess .. Also production performance in recent months in Tunisia could be updated on now.. and indeed also sales and inventory .. and what about that second stored oil lifting that was supposed to happen in a few months back .... etc.. Generally, if there was plenty of tunisian good news, we'd have heard that by now, no doubt.. so here's to average over poor news, in the round, from Tunisia.... But the s/p is that lowly now that it seems to be already to be assuming poor news from Tunisia, in fairness)