RE: Billion Traded18 Jun 2024 13:40
Early May coverage note fwiw:
Positive trading update CAP-XX has announced that current trading on existing products remains strong, in line with management forecasts, and trial shipments of pre-samples of new product have recently commenced. Bookings and billings are 14% and 56% ahead respectively for the financial year to date compared with the comparative period in 2023, along with a current book to bill ratio of 1.12. The order backlog remains close to US$1m. - Investments are being made for growth, including the continued expansion of the sales representative and distribution network, and working capital for the market introduction of the new DMH and SMD products. An initial pre-series batch of fully functional DMH product is currently under lab evaluation and SMD testing remains on track. We see the launch of new unique products such as the DMH this year and SMD in FY25E as key drivers for higher-margin revenue growth in the coming years. - Legal costs effectively over. After agreeing settlements with Maxwell/Tesla and AVX, and – apart from the final settlement of legal costs associated with the Maxwell/Tesla litigation, which CAPXX does not consider material – the only remaining payments for legal costs will be normal ongoing corporate legal expenses such as those associated with applications for patents. - FY25E to benefit from cost-reduction programme, which the company believes has delivered annualised operating cost savings of more than US$0.5m (cA$0.75m). The company will be providing a more detailed update on the business with a capital markets seminar after the year end, which will enable us to provide a more complete analysis of this. - Target for breakeven in the 2026 calendar year, which aligns with our forecasts. Whilst the trading update is positive, there are no comparative figures to which to compare the 56% growth rate, although this growth rate compares favourably to the performance from peers in the supercapacitor space and the wider passive electronic components sector, which continues to be affected by the geopolitical macro backdrop. This trading update does, however, show that the company is back on a growth track, and – with a lower cost base and strengthened balance sheet post fund raise to invest in product launches and growth – that the company looks to be turning around under the new CEO’s updated strategy. We look forward to more financial detail to be released post year-end in the proposed capital markets seminar to provide a more detailed analysis of the trading and update our forecasts. In the meantime, we note that we believe the current valuation does not reflect the IPO position, current trading and prospects for the company.