Member Info for NewKOTB

I would think we should pick up from the 17th, most definitely after the 27th .... but this is SDX, so could well start to climb before 17th, but another drop between now and then.

Who knows..... !

250SWB,

"the self financing nature of such a deal is pretty clear..."

Absolutely, the cash being generated month on month, year on year for the next 3 years for minimal CapEx as per BKR road-map will self fund any t/o imo.

The fruit is slow low lying, it's branches are touching the ground atm.

Some serious action today with the SP.

I see, after two days of being very subdued, our BoT is back with 'a Vengeance', its 'Endgame', who knows.

Probably didn't like the little popup on close yesterday .....

250SWB,

Global Reserve Group LLC, owner of GRG UK Oil LLC(with 17.4% is SQZ largest shareholder) founded by Mr Jeffrey Harris if I recall entered SQZ with around 15% at 31p back in 2012 and last year he had to step down from the board due to his US connection and Trumps sanctions to ensure a smooth path for BKR. Not sure what Delek connection is, if any with SQZ, any help appreciated !!!

250SWB

As you mentioned, SQZ "will now be on the radar of many PE companies so I expect corporate action at some stage"

We will do well if we manage to ride out this year without anyone taking us over.

"Wood MacKenzie estimates that there are 20 private equity-backed vehicles with war chests of around $15 billion for North Sea acquisitions...(March 2018)"

Don't think it will be Endeavour as they are Non-operated fields, ACW stated they would want to be operator of the assets.

But if the price is right .......fire sale valuation, why not.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-endeavour-north-sea-sale/endeavour-energy-kicks-off-north-sea-assets-sale-sources-idUKKBN1GY1UT

sasa43,

"hope to be producing 30k - 40k boepd in the medium term..."

In real net terms we are on par imo with Tailwind production.

Our board are more than aware of our vulnerability atm in terms of our low MCap imo. Clearly 6 months on from the BKR transformational deal we are strangely more vulnerable than before the deal as the true worth has yet to transfer to our SP as the board would have liked.

So to survive, we need to grow either organically which takes time, or by inorganic growth, merger / acquisitions.

One of these latter scenarios is on the card and is likely to be played out this summer / autumn or earlier imo

gla

PS BoT very quite once again this morning but some big trades are still happening .. hummm

I have always thought that Tailwind would be the ideal partner to merge with in terms of synergies. It would balance our portfolio in terms of production, development and exploration within Irish and NS.

Their board are akin to ours with a hunger that only youth can deliver. Our current board can take a backseat as NED's so still benefit from the new companies future fortunes.

Tailwind have only a handful of employees so SQZ, with our ready made and skilled staffed Aberdeen offices would also work well.

https://www.tailwind.co.uk/overview

In terms of valuing Tailwind, its a difficult one but I would guess it would not be to dissimilar to ourselves as in terms of net production we are virtually the same. Reserves also,Gannet E, 23mboe P2, Conwy 16mboe P2, Columbus 3mboe P2 and the Triton Cluster (Bittern Guillemot Triton).

Tailwind is backed by private commodities and energy group Mercuria so cash will not be an issue, just don't know what debt is held by Tailwind ?

http://www.mercuria.com/

Another point of interest is Tailwind contact address is Cavendish Square, the very same place Circle Oil frequented, from where our own Mitch Flegg recently re-joined us from?

The real question is will we de-list to merge or more likely imo Tailwind-Serica would retain AIM listing but with view to main market listing.

I could of course be totally wrong in this assumption and in fact we are just the pray for Tailwind !!!

Tailwind Energy’s boss has said the North Sea oil firm has “identified” new acquisition targets.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/182953/eye-catching-acquisitions-as-tailwind-targets-new-energy-deals/

aimo

Although should our board not be receptive to a merger on terms proposed, Mercuria will ensure Tailwind could go hostile.

The BoT has been active for months so something is being worked on in the background, with or without SQZ knowledge or blessing.

aimo

Mercuria are a private energy & commodities trading company that financed Tailwind and their growth to-date.

.... humm...... "merger"

Mr Craven Walker cited the 2016 merger between Norwegian independent Det norske oljeselskap and BP’s Norwegian unit to form Aker-BP as the kind of deal Serica would like to do next to secure more development and appraisal assets. “We need to merge ourselves together with a portfolio,” he said.

So are my thoughts about Tailwind on track I wonder !

Makes sense as Mercuria will easily have the firepower to manage our SP whilst the deal is negotiated.

Of course they want the lot, our only hope is Ingalls and Snyder are not siding with them, otherwise it's curtains afaic.

Don't think the SP will be allowed to recover any ground between now and the TSX de-list. TR1's notifications after the de-list will be critical information for the market, although there are 'ways' around having to issue threshold notifications.

As for Michael Raynes ... well, no need to guess what side of the fence he's on !!

aimo.

Bangrak,

"This looks like its worth about 180p at this time (ex cash)..."

We have 30p/s cash in the bank atm ..... so well undervalued don't you think.

So SDX SPV et al, once they have a controlling 60%, (thanks to de-listing from TSX) the remaining 40% could be picked up for as little as £41m in real terms, even paying top dollar price of 50p/s . Don't forget PW quoted, this will become a $1bn company. So in effect, they would just be buying their own cash currently in the business plus a little more !!!

There is incentive if it was ever needed.

aimo

Also a plan from 2017 that is on same terms due July 2020 needs the SP to reach 61.5p

The 'incentive plan' was a joke when issued, now I understand why !!

The SP has until March 2021 to reach the dizzy height of 60.8p for the plan to kick in from a base of 44.5p.

· If the share price growth in the three year period is less than 11% pa, there will be no increase in the base award number of shares set out above; and

· If the share price growth in the three year period is between a range of 11% pa and 20% pa, the additional number of shares which vest will increase proportionately within this range up to a cap of a multiple of one times the base award number of shares. This cap will be triggered at share price growth of 20% pa or more.

For me, the incentive plan is just another cover story.

On the plus side, that bogus RTO last year gave us a gap to fill at 57p.

If this is all above board then charts show a climb to +77p

time will tell ... starting on Monday

gla, we need it.

Note, they deliberately left the fall on TSX until after our close to ensure we open lower on Monday.

Pure manipulation and skulduggery continues, should this get investigated, which I believe it should, there will be plenty of evidence of foul-play, unless the investigation goes on for longer than 6 years !!!.

I believe ACW still has 2.5m options at £420k set to expire in 2025.

Which may well be taken soon, who knows !!

gla