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JAdam,

"Definately starting to smell a bit..."

Rancid and malodorous imo, has been for months.

You could argue the market knew how good the results were going to be and had already factors this in, just PI's buying on RNS news !! So it would follow, the market should also be able to price us for 100% BKR atm as all the data is out there .... so are we really worth 130p

Yep, pulled swiftly down into the close to pick up a few cheap shares and to ensure a low open tomorrow.

Several 'corrections' noted today from last week, as mentioned, they are not normal trading corrections imo

Back to January 7th Price ... not sure how that is possible given last weeks news !

I'm 99% convinced that we are being managed for a t/o.

Our fabulous results last week and the BoT continues to aggressively manage the SP.

The re-appearance of NI confirms this also.

I have also noted time and time again trade 'corrections' occurring .... more today, once again, happening too many times for it to be genuine errors imo.

Summer, early Autumn all will be revealed aimo

gla

sasa43,

Please do not continue to use his thread. As this is always negative and only aids to propagate his negativity.

We all know he works for someone with a reason to stifle the SP and pour cold water on what is a great company.

For anyone in any doubt, just read last weeks results.

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/2019-AR-for-website.pdf

Since becoming owner operator in December of BKR, SQZ have increased production compared to BP by 20% on top of this we also have an additional 25% uplift in production, on top of this we have Erskine back online and performing above expectations, on top of that we have hedge at a minimum of 37% of production at 35p/therm, on top of that 20% of production is oil, which is +40% since start of year.

So yes cash is rolling in .....

I have always thought that Tailwind would be the ideal partner to merge with in terms of synergies. It would balance our portfolio in terms of production, development and exploration within Irish and NS.

Their board are akin to ours with a hunger that only youth can deliver. Our current board can take a backseat as NED's so still benefit from the new companies future fortunes.

https://www.tailwind.co.uk/overview

In terms of valuing Tailwind, its a difficult one but I would guess it would not be to dissimilar to ourselves as in terms of net production we are virtually the same. Reserves also,Gannet E, 23mboe P2, Conwy 16mboe P2, Columbus 3mboe P2 and the Triton Cluster (Bittern Guillemot Triton).

Tailwind is backed by private commodities and energy group Mercuria so cash will not be an issue, just don't know what debt is held by Tailwind ?

http://www.mercuria.com/

Another point of interest is Tailwind contact address is Cavendish Square, the very same place Circle Oil frequented, from where our own Mitch Flegg recently re-joined us from?

The real question is will we de-list to merge or more likely imo Tailwind-Serica would retain AIM listing but with view to main market listing.

I could of course be totally wrong in this assumption and in fact we are just the pray for Tailwind !!!

aimo

Mavrick7,

" Will SQZ merge with some of the smaller - mid tier o&g companies ? Less of them around though (IAE, FPM). However, there's JOG, PMG, HUR, PVR. Can't see sqz merging with high debt companies like PMO or ENQ though ...."

As an option, it is certainly more than possible.

My thought has for sometime been Tailwind Energy.

"We seek to expand the value of our business, whilst spreading risk and limiting downside exposure, through both partnerships and asset transactions. With an experienced Board and Management, Serica has the knowledge, reputation and capabilities to drive for value-led growth both organically and through value enhancing acquisitions, building on synergies from our existing assets..."

Given SQZ's quote above, I would certainly consider a merger/takeover of Tailwind Energy as highly possible.

We have synergies with Columbus, currently Tailwind produce around 15kboepd and exposure to high quality oil producing field that will help balance our reliance on both gas and Forties pipeline and also the 'Trump' effect.

All Tailwinds assets are confined to NS and East Irish Sea.

Tailwinds MO is akin to SQZ with the bonus of a young BoD with extensive experience in key areas. It is about time ACW et al, took a backseat as NED's, after all, they deserve it !

This would catapult the newly combined company to 4th Largest Independent Operator on UKCS.

I do believe we need to grow quickly or be swallowed ourselves. Our SP, imo, has been constantly managed for months on end with 'A' trades regularly dominating daily activity, so something is brewing !!

I do think we are close to another deal, but it may not be with BP...... on this occasion !!

gla

Of course you can never second guess Trump, that is why our BoD will have achieved another deal, possibly transformational well before year end imo.

aimo

Stop using his thread may help.

Of course he been told to use Iran as the fear card for the foreseeable .... as mentioned does not impact us at all as our operation have noting to do with these sanctions. The fact that he is working on a BH tells you all you need to know about NI ongoing intentions. It will be post after post of Iran this Trump that ..blah blah blah

Gas price will stabilize to the norm over the summer 37.5 to 42.5p/therm range before rising again into the autumn so that card has been played to death.

But I guess there will be .........

no mention of Erskine fully online after 10 months last year being offline, +3kboepd.
no mention of our net BKR increasing by 25% in 2019
no mention of EPS increase of +337%
no mention of Group profit after tax of $74.7m
no mention of reserves increased to 68.8 mmboe
no mention of tax pool of +$139m
no mention of ever increasing cash pile with $92m CoH
no mention of since BKR deal completed, SQZ have increased production from average 25.4kboepd to +30.5kboepd ( 20% increase)

sure others will add more.

atb

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose as much as 3.3 percent to $74.31 a barrel on Monday, the highest intraday level in almost six months.

"Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Total all selling significant chunks, if not all, of their North Sea assets, attention inevitably turns to BP's intentions. The UK major has sold assets in recent years to firms such as Ineos, UK independent Enquest and Serica, and divestment remains firmly on the firm's mind."

"At its third-quarter results presentation at the end of October, BP talked of its intention to hit its $3bn divestment target for the year, despite having made only $0.4–0.5bn of assets sales up to the end of Q3. While it said to expect at least announcements of further deals by year end, it has yet to make public any additional divestments....."

"Quite gassy and legacy" parts of the portfolio will be the focus of these deals, which could apply to some of BP's remaining North Sea holdings. But the firm has thus far taken a much more piecemeal approach to selling UK assets.."

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/europe-eurasia/2019/north-sea-ma-quick-off-the-blocks

SQZ have stated they are only interested in an asset if they became the operator. So it would follow that the next deal will be a big one also, as majority of NS field operators are NOC or IOC. Don't think they would want to mess around splitting up their assets, piecemeal.

D220,

So Ineos are on the acquisition trail .... SQZ would be small change for them but would significantly change their NS profile from primary non-operator to operator and move them up to a comfortable 5th in the UKCS net Independent Producer table. As SQZ net BKR production increases YoY, this will further enhance Ineos rating

I have said before that Ineos would be the ones to watch and with the ConocoPhillips bid failing, even more so imo

I really hope it's not another GKP ... PI's got hung drawn and quartered by the bond holders ..... yes SP went up but also a massive fall from grace due to debt and subsequent horrendous dilution also !!

I have no idea where our SP will be in 4 years time, all I want is it to be significantly higher without any real dilution, if any at all.

Another 'transformational deal' could well be on the cards and that may possibly be another reason for the SP manipulation.

£5 in 2023/4 would be nice, though 2020 would be better !!

atb

Maverick7,

"Within about 4 years or quicker, at the current cash generation we are going to get close to $1 billion cash...."

The key is, that's achievable with very little CapEx as the road-map is clear as day where SQZ will be in 4 years, that's without further business enhancing deals.

So in effect, as you correctly mention, you could buy a highly cash generative company producing enormous profits annually for next to nothing in real terms. In 4 years on current assets we should be producing 40-50kboepd net as per road-map.

Hell, you could even get a private equity firm to buy us and just run the assets dry. No real need for O&G expertise heading the business !! Although my money is on another O&G operator with close synergies in the NS.

aimo

If you were / are a holder of either IAE and more recently OPHR, you will understand where I am coming from in terms of the market manipulation via BoTs.

OPHR is a close match to SQZ in terms of operation / reserves / recent large transformational deal etc that will get taken out below fair value imo.

The market never plays fair as far as PI's are concerned, just a case of being aware of the games being played.

Maverick7,

Agree fully

For best part of 12 months the BoT has been active daily here containing / working the SP whilst whom ever loads up. The percentage of daily BoT trades are amazingly high, consistently so ..... note, no change in major holders / notification of percentage thresholds other than recent Hardy's tiny adjustment.

On Wednesday it lost control and you seen the net result, a 22% gain.

All great news is stifled as the SP is actively managed. The slightest bit of 'bad' news is seized upon aka Rowallen and quickly dropped the SP over 10% .... to open below £1 on a fully carried drill with a minority interest !! Although the market quickly realized how much of a bargain sub £1 was. Lets hope they also see sub 130p as a bargain also.

Our BoD are no doubt fully aware of this trading pattern and may of even had an approach that they are not legally required to inform the market about as in their opinion, does not represent a true reflection of the companies value.

I fear a t/o approach, in the meantime market-maker/s continue accumulating on behalf of a third party imo

It could be of course someone unloading, but I very much doubt it.

We should of easily moved into the 150's yesterday but it now appears as if the 130's are to be the norm for a while.

Either way, I do think this Summer / early Autumn will reveal all..... well before we get R3 online or another deal is done.

PS The main defense will be to grow, develop and mature the company, and that is what our BoD are active with atm

aimo

17% net gain over last two days, given the starting position and our Y/E results, I would have expected a little more tbh, but profit is profit.

Lets hope Tuesday sees us back on the upward trajectory.

Back in control once more, to what end is the real question ..... I have my thoughts.