Member Info for NewKOTB

Note the absence of our penny_investor today.

Brent back above $70
Gas up over 4.3%

Our SP management continues unabated.

Over 95% of our trades today originated from BoTs, our late UT from DMA, designed purely to lower the SP imo.

Day of very low volume once more.

Hope the board are asking our advisers the right questions.

Once again from being up virtually all day and on the bell being +1.7p up, we close at just +0.2p.....

Same yesterday, forced down at end of day.

Also, Exceed will help Serica improve production from its recently acquired assets, which include the Bruce area fields in the same region.

Sasa,

Had a look around a little more. The only NEW commitment I have found is for the hiring of Exceed for our Columbus development on a two-year contract.

"UK oil company Serica Energy has hired Aberdeen-based well management company Exceed to support its good operations at the Columbus gas condensate development."

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/exceed-supporting-sericas-columbus-efforts/

sasa,

Fair enough, lets see what twisted gems he comes back with.

gl

He will no doubt hark on about the £7.7m consideration for 2019 we will need to pay out of our massive cash hoard.

Although this payment could be reduced as it's dependent upon Rhum field production and the price achieved for sales of gas if they do not meet agreed levels. As gas is down, which I believe has been mentioned once or twice on this board from 2018 levels, good chance this figure will be revised down in agreement with T&C of BP sale.

sasa,

oh dear, fallen into his trap !!!

Just as well you are not a fish ..... hook, line and sinker !!!

See our resident doom 'n' gloom merchant is working hard again for his boss today.

Cash still rolling in as 60% of BKR hedged at 35p/therm, oil up 40% on year.

At $6.80 barrel 2P, plus our cash on hand an offer of 170p could well be an opening shot. That does not include tax loss pool or valuing our other none producing assets. A deal of this valuation could pay for itself easily within 4 years imo and be self-funding. That is an incentive if ever one was needed.

As mentioned, although we are a different animal to pre BKR, many would be tempted by this given only 18 months ago SQZ were trading at 20-30p, a year earlier it was 10-15p and prior to that, never been significantly above 30p since before 2011.

We should easily be trading in the 150-170p range, but we are not and that is for a reason..... one that will be answered this summer / early Autumn if not sooner, imo.

The world is changing and imo we would be lucky to survive an approach at this point in time.

aimo

JAdam,

"Serica somehow needs to get this price up or I CAN see an offer around the £1.75 or so coming in... "

Our views are aligned, my range is >+40% premium with resulting range of 170p - 190p imo

Not ideal, but with the SP being aggressively managed this is a real possibility atm

NB Trumps intervention in Iran could spike the oil price which may give us a temporary boost and his tariffs war with China really needs to be resolved.

So what is happening to our SP.

We know SQZ has and still is being actively managed by BoTs for many months, well before the BKR deal completed in November 2018.

Interesting to note that the recent t/o by DNO of Faroe that DNO and persons acting in concert with DNO built a significant position of c30% of Faroe that started a full 8 months before the approach was made ! (Project Viking)

Checking out their chart, they too were also held in a tight trading range from April 2018, the time from which DNO and 'friends' started to build their position.

So tell me we don't have someone interest in us atm .....

aimo

So, if all things remain equal, we could end the 2019 with appox 50% of our Mcap in CASH est $250m.

Producing +30,000 boe/d
68.8 mmboe of 2P (even at a ridiculous $5/barrel is worth $344m)
$140m tax loss pool to draw upon.

Using the results presentation as a guide, we are adding approx $3.1m every WEEK to our cash balance ..... or to sound more impressive, approx $161m pa, from a base of $92m cash as of end of Q1 2019.

Biggest late trade I have noted for sometime today, 'appears' to be a sale ?

30-Apr-19 13:33:11 128.80 240,000 Sell* 129.40 130.60 £309.12k

250SWB,

I agree that a 30-50% premium is very light, but once the blue touch paper has been lit, one would hope it will ignite interest from others also. Who knows, maybe we have already kicked a low ball offer into touch ! But the way our SP is being managed, something has to surface and soon imo

Another value accretive deal and all bets are off .... that is why our board must do another deal soon, otherwise our days are numbered it has been all too easy for the BoT to manage our SP atm imo.

NB Our SP has been oscillating around and gravitating to, 130p since November 2018 !!! Our 100 day WMA / VMA / MA is 124p / 126p / 124p !!

regards

aimo

Regardless of how much the company is worth, I do think a bid of 30-50% premium would be successful on a t/o at this point in time imo.

Why, do remember, only 18 months ago SQZ were trading at 20-30p, a year earlier it was 10-15p and prior to that, never been significantly above 30p since before 2011. You have to go back to 2007/2008 to be comparable to today's SP. A decent premium on todays SP would ensure ALL shareholder realize a gain. You could not ask more of a company and its board should this be achieved.

So a t/o bid of circ 170-195p would be successful imo

Although I would rather hold for another 3 years to see much larger gain, I do think the time may well be now, given micro and macro economics, to bid farewell to our beloved SQZ.

This is what I consider to be a real possibility before the year is out. Don't forget, our major shareholder loaded up at 31p.

For balance, I would vote for this scenario if given tomorrow, all be it, with a heavy heart.

gla & aimo

n/m

* so (slow)

Has someone else seen the potential of ITM and want to move the company forward at a pace of knots, they way it should already be doing so !

Hold this gain into the close and we should expect an RNS shortly imo.