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well that would be lovely - so we know they're looking for $50m given the Hart Energy article - but $50m for 1% would then value our assets and subsequently PANR at $5bn. Not saying it's impossible, just feels a tad bullish right now given where we're at.

Then the question becomes would you rather take 10% for $50m, or raise in the capital markets for a 20% dilution (given current mcap).

Indeed - 10% for $50m would be nice

https://www.reddit.com/user/sanchee1/

posted under this user - click on link is first post.

Fantastic post thank you Olderwiser for sharing your thoughts.

It's a very nice situation to be in when the excitement for a $270m mcap company is not about the $795m NPV10 project based on a $55 oil price (vs. $68 ANS crude) but it's big brother to be announced within 10 days (fingers crossed).

You're welcome, I do find some of the numbers extraordinary, and OK Geodes post focusing in on the SMD vs the Theta West play where a lot of the excitement has been, really does hit home to me just how special this acreage could be. In particular his closing comments I find very confidence building (along with the views and thoughts of other Oil professionals like Telemachus):

"I am envious and professionally jealous - it is every petroleum geologists career dream to search for and then find such a reservoir as the SMD .... and ... well... yea ... of course the others. I congratulate Pantheon and the geoscientists. Awesome !!"

Really good piece written by a geologist, highly recommend giving it a read, estimates size of SMD, and provides some fascinating context.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/n89s1o/from_the_petroleumgeology_sub_definitely_worth_a/

Tony 1048 - this is the best most recent transaction to get a sense in $40 oil market what companies are willing to pay. Note Alaskan Crude is currently selling at $66 a barrel.

https://www.oilsearch.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/13676/171101-Strategic-acquisition-of-interests-in-the-Alaska-North-Slope.pdf

That is my personal view, and we should have an official company estimate in the next 3 weeks.

Theta West is estimated to be 120k acre and at Talitha was 600ft thick and is better to the West on the recently acquired acreage. Pantheon believe they have captured 80% of the play on their acreage. This is all info shared in the webinar. From the above you can take a fag packet and do some rough calcs and start to understand why the BoD and many investors are so excited.

And this is just one of the plays

(Part 2)
88e will also release news from Merlin, possibly farmout for next Icewine drill, possibly a Yukon partnership and it’s interpretation of the Talitha results for its Icewine acreage, and anything relevant from Theta West. So the fundamentals I believe are going to improve significantly, and I believe they will improve disproportionately higher than the market fanaticism, again because currently the fundamentals are relatively significantly lower. And let’s be honest at it’s peak fanaticism was off the charts, at one point it was trending ahead of Bitcoin on Stocktwits for growth on watchlists.

So I see the destinies of the two company’s positively and inextricably intertwined, and each will benefit from the other for different reasons. 88e from PANRs news flow, and PANR from 88es market fanaticism.

(Part 1)
I find it fascinating how polarised the debate is on PANR or 88e. I believe both companies are going to do well and there is a degree of symbiosis here that offers a very unusual and possibly significant opportunity.

Let me offer an overly simple, totally made up hypothetical equation (and I know this is not real before I get shot down, but it helps explain my thesis).

Market fanaticism x fundamentals = market cap

Simple theory: A company that nobody knows or cares about with poor fundamentals will do badly in the market. A company with a lot of market awareness and love coupled with good fundamentals will do well. And permutations in-between.

Both PANR and 88e are roughly the same market cap at the moment (PANR:£215m 88e: £187m).

PANR I believe has currently got stronger fundamentals based on a better understanding of the geology on their acreage from $250m of investment for 3D Seismic and a number of exploratory wells over the last 10 years, successful flow test at Alkaid, and a successful drill at Talitha which has yielded a lot of confirmatory data for the play. I also believe that the ongoing eSeis analysis, and the Baker Hughes findings de-risk the play further. So looking purely at fundamentals PANR is in a stronger position. But market awareness and fanaticism, is much much much lower and weaker than 88e.

88e I believe has promising acreage with some promising prospects, but is less mature in proving up their acreage at this moment in time (understandable given the time and money invested to date in doing so). Seismic is less well developed, and I would argue 88e has had less success with the drill bit. Note I say “less success”, not “no success”. But 88e has got huge market awareness, and serious fanaticism (there are websites selling 88e hoodies, T-shirts etc. I kid you not). Imagine what would have happened had Merlin flowed 100 barrels of oil per day of light crude INTERMITTENTLY as did Talitha.

The news in the next 6 months from PANR I believe will strengthen the PANR fundamentals, further de-risking the investment, and I believe will also drive increased market awareness not just through the media coverage that I think they will receive regarding Theta West, but also because 88e will benefit from the news and therefore if you’re fanatical about 88e, you will become more and more aware of PANR as it will be part of 88e story. So I expect both market fanaticism and fundamentals to increase for PANR, but I expect market fanaticism to increase disproportionately higher than the fundamentals given it is currently relatively so low.

Hi Tony,

Some thoughts from myself, on your questions.

1) The SP dropped on news that the Kuparuk did not flow as expected, and in my opinion an RNS that transparently described the disappointment of the Pantheon GB team. It was a tad too emotional for my liking, but on the flip side showed the passion of the team. It was disappointing, and I think a lot of people had taken a position based on the expectation of positive flow results. As a consequence, as so often happens in AIM, a lot decided to fold, creating a drop in share price which then snowballed as herd mentality and fear kicked in to hit a low of approximately 18/19p. My hypothesis is that it was an emotion led sell-off, and I disagree - I don't think the market did understand the results - but then I don't think full explanation of the results were provided until the Baker Hughes report and the subsequent webinar. So unless you were an expert in this field, or had invested significant time and effort to understand the play prior to the results would people hold. Fast forward to the Baker Hughes report, and then the webinar firstly that 800 people tuned in to watch, followed by it being published for all to see did the share price start to recover. And recover it has, sitting approximately 20-25% where it was from it's peak during the drill (~45p) and approximately 10% off where it was prior to results. My expectation is that there will be full recovery prior to the Theta West announcement that the BoD have committed to around about the 20th May. And then in my opinion, something extraordinarily large will be announced that will be headline grabbing in the US and provide a catalyst for the share price. Which coincidentally will echo through to the large 88e "fan base" which will be good for awareness.

2) As a consequence of the Kuparuk testing and the finite drilling window due to when companies are able to drill on the tundra, there are 4 additional zones that look good, that have not been flow tested, although I believe at this location the company were only planning on flow testing 3 as 1 is not in the best location to test. This is what the team refer to in terms of what they will return to test. Although this time there is no need to drill the well as this has been done, meaning they can test for the full season and additionally, will be going back having 9 months of data analysis from this season. One would hope maximising the opportunity for success.

Hope that helps, and also I believe both Scott123 and Rabito79 despite getting vitriol on the 88e board, are both incredibly knowledgable and in my opinion spot on with their analysis of the play, the upside, and what is happening with organisation who bought GB debt.

Worth a read folks, good coverage for Panr in this when released to the 1000s of 88e fans.

Also interesting analysis from 88 on their adjoining acreage

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02367223-6A1029816?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

https://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/773737021.shtml

Rabito - very good point, I'd overlooked that.

It appears to be quite a chunk as well.

Weird that they would do that before the Talitha results, although apparently it was mainly BEX acreage? Interestingly the quarterly shows less land relinquished than the update in the ops update.

https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02359620.pdf

https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02364958.pdf

Yup - one I suspect that will payback many many time.

For context - the Theta West prospect is 600-800ft thick and covers 120000 acres. PANR have 80% of it, and some of the remaining 20% (not all) is on 88 land.

Don't worry didn't take it that way.

Possibly juliet - possibly alpha. Also worth noting proximity to Dalton highway and TAPS, but either way, if there is oil there running under 88 acreage, then there's in interesting unitisation conversation that needs to be had.

If Dave's not looking at accelerating 3D under that part of the acreage I'd be surprised. I know they're looking at the 2D they have, but what I don't know is if they can combine the 2D with the new Pantheon data they'll be able to create a good enough model to estimate the resource. More technical folk than me will need to advise on whether the 2D is enough or we'd need 3D.

Very good write-up here: https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/muvg8j/key_slides_from_the_presentation_on_42021/

Also key slides in this pack for 88 are( http://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/659-investor-presentation-april-2021/file):
Slide 27 Theta West - see commentary in write-up
The acreage south of Pantheons under the flat line is 88e.
Slide 33-35 - the shelf margin Deltaic
The acreage south of pantheon under the flat line is 88e.

Hope that helps - the write-up by Telemachus is far more eloquent and expert than what I could write.

Good luck

Fair point JofHoggit - and it definitely doesn't end in a straight line at the border either.

I don't know if their 3d runs over 88 acreage, but remember we took land from Great Bear here a few years ago - so possibly they do.

macro point - there's oil under 88 acreage, how much we do not know, but Theta is turning into a massive prospect which could be substantial for 88, I won't relay the specifics here as it's all in the webinar and last time I mentioned it I got accused of cross ramping. :-)

http://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/659-investor-presentation-april-2021/file

Slide 27.