Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No worries - I've just overlaid our leases on the map, what I'm seeing is quite exciting. Our leases run directly to the East of hole 15. And by that I mean within 100s of metres close on tenements we already have application approvals for. We also hold the leases directly 3km south. results from RR drill 15 will be very interesting - if that hit grades it looks like there's a very good chance it will run onto our tenements as well.
Not in telegram group anymore since it moved, but can post in there if I can get back in.
if you use this link it will show you APTA mapped to hole 15 of RR minerals in Guintar
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/6.2806227,-75.9075392/Proyecto+GNM+-+Hole+15+-+Niverengo+-+Royal+Road+Minerals,+Guintar,+Anza,+Antioquia,+Colombia/@6.2821102,-75.9565629,16286m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m8!4m7!1m0!1m5!1m1!1s0x8e45dba3c08bf0c1:0xf5c0b3c71d53b569!2m2!1d-75.9684106!2d6.3257856
OK - if you go into google maps and put in "Proyecto GNM - Hole 15 - Niverengo - Royal Road Minerals, Guintar, Anza, Antioquia, Colombia" google actually has it mapped. This isn't the drill that reported the results, but if you look at the map halfway down this page you can see the other holes that reported the results relative to this one.
https://www.royalroadminerals.com/news/2021/royal-road-intersects-303-7-meters-at-1-1-grams-per-tonne-gold-equivalent-in-newly-discovered-porphyry-copper-and-gold-system-at-its-guint%c3%a4r-project-colombia-1/
So a bit farther than 6km - it's a 10km drive along windy roads - so more like 7-8km as the crow flies.
I can't tell specifically where the tenement is, but it's a 6km drive from Guintar to APTA in a curved route - so about 4-5km as the crow flies. But it looks like our North Eastern leases could be directly adjacent.
It's a great video thank you for posting. Also I liked the bit at 6m45secs - "we're likely to drill a second well along the Dalton Highway" so that could be a second producer using the funds from the over subscribed raise.
It's really great news Scot126,
Also we now have the proposed plan which is very reassuring. I'm sure you've seen it, but for those who haven't it's below.
1. Prepack then construct Ice Road and Ice Drillpad to Talitha A then
continue construction to Theta West #1 location 12/15/2021 1/16/2022
2. Move Rig to Talitha A and Rig Up 1/4/2022 1/15/2022
3. Rig Moved to Theta West #1 Coil Unit Moved In at Talitha A 1/15/2022 1/16/2022
4. Theta West #1 well spudded 1/18/2022 1/18/2022
5. Theta West #1 well drilled, cased, tested, and suspended 1/18/2022 4/15/2022
6. Rig downTheta West and move out 4/15/2022 4/30/2022
7. Clean-Up both sites (Winter) 4/28/2022 4/30/2022
8. Clean-Up both site (Summer Stick Picking) – 2 days in June or July 6/30/2022 7/3/2022
https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/535B423B152E4D5BA33B62AC6576266F/2021-11-02__Lease_Plan_of_Operations_Application?
In addition, lease sale results are due tomorrow, with leases around Alkaid and Theta available where our seismic indicates reservoir per the August presentation. I'm betting PANR (or another) takes some of those leases to increase coverage of the reservoirs. Link to map below.
https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/SaleDocuments/NorthSlope/2021WF/2021-09-15_Tract_Map_NSA2021WF.pdf
Worth noting we have relinquished the Leonis leases in September which are up for sale.
https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/PeriodicReports/Lease_LeaseAdministrationTransactionActivity202109.pdf
Getting to the fun part of the year!!
And that's the BIG difference - the fundamentals - the bit that is where all the risk is, the bit that is part down to the geology, location and a bit of luck that cannot be achieved through tweeting it can only be achieved at the drillbit. But if you get the fundamentals then the awareness can be bought with a comms strategy. Hence why I view PANR as the significantly lower risk investment for significant gains, and 88e the more speculative. But as I said, I believe good money will be made on both.
Good luck for the coming drilling season whatever your investment strategy is.
Good morning,
The sole purpose any of us investing is to make money. In my view both companies present good opportunities to do so but for very different reasons.
PANR's investment case is far ahead of 88e on a fundamental basis. The success case is clearer, the risk to success is lower, the economics of success are better. And the narrative on the fundamental differential of the two cases by Scot126, Olderwiser, Rabito and others I believe are sound.
The big difference between the two cases outside of the fundamentals is the level of awareness and "fandom" in the markets. 88e as we all know have a huge fan base, there are 88e Facebook and Twitter fan clubs and social media "influencers" promoting 88e with thousands of followers who people follow the advice of - sometimes I would suggest quite blindly. This fan base is, I would argue on the whole, inexperienced and do not understand the fundamentals of the cases, but are in love with the idea of turning 1.7p into 50p and lack even the most basic appreciation of what that means from a MCAP perspective - instead seeing the unitary value of a share being in the pennies as meaning it is more likely to rise to a higher price than would a company whose unitary share being in the pounds regardless of the MCAP.
But what that 88e fanbase means is that on the whiff of any positive news, and on the run up to the 88e drill programme, we could and should (as has happened every year for the past 7 years) expect a hike in the share price, and this year quite possibly an even greater hike than previous years given the reach the company now has. It won't be down to fundamental appreciation (unless of course there is FO news along the way), it will be down to hype and hope. But making money from hype and hope vs. fundamentals still means you are making money. Interestingly, PANR also started to see some of this as well when Contrarian888 with 15k followers on Twitter started to present the PANR case albeit on a much smaller scale than 88e has achieved and also linked to a much sounder fundamental case.
Don't get me wrong, do I think 88e has some fundamental basis for investment? I do, but a much weaker one than PANR. But I believe we have two companies here which almost have the inverse investment cases when looking at how money will be made.
PANR has almost unbelievably good fundamentals but very little awareness. The big money will be made when the awareness catches up - which it is starting to do btw.
88e has almost unbelievably good awareness and fandom, but significantly weaker fundamentals. The money will be made in the short term from fans reacting to anything positive that bolsters the fundamentals, and longer term IF the fundamentals come through.
On the subject of Kuparuk - interesting new analysis posted by a geologist on what was reported, and some of the implications of oil wet vs. water wet, and the implications of being over pressurised. I'm not technically savvy enough to understand it all, but it makes for an interesting read, with some bullish conclusions.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/pe7lem/pantheon_resources_ltd_talitha_a_well_kuparuk/
Hi AgeingGeo/Jlite,
Suggest you try and watch the webinar from April which answers certainly the questions on funding and why the Kuparuk didn't flow as expected. But in summary:
1) the cost of the Winter Programme is estimated to be $50m
2) the Kuparuk did flow intermittently, but was below expectations primarily because of the nature of the reservoir being oil wet, rather than water wet which is what was expected. As a consequence they need to use different techniques to extract the oil. The presentation can be found below which covers this.
Hope that helps :-)
https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/659-investor-presentation-april-2021/file
You'll find the April Webinar here which talks about both these points: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncgsjWsy0aA
Thanks Olderwiser - very encouraging.
I liked this bit "Now on to an extensive evaluation of Pantheon’s North Slope acreage from legacy cuttings and cores!!!"
Suggests we have employed Baker Hughes to do a thorough analysis - be interesting to see what it shows up.
Seahawk - I agree - $50m is roughly 10% dilution, not sure we'll get FO worth $50m for 10%. There maybe other factors to consider (including any discount to VWAP for the raise), and there maybe a more complex FO structure that makes more sense with additional de-risking factors that a partner could bring that would add value.
Exciting times.
This should get us some attention
https://twitter.com/LithiumIonBull/status/1410778381080272897
Spot on Scot126 - and supported by slide 43 here: http://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/653-pantheon-oct-2020-webinar-1/file
You can see where they had to stop drilling prematurely and can see how this compares to the Pipeline state well
Here's a map showing the lease sale results - nowhere near PANR acreage, and also you can see the successful bidders. Lots of leases not bid for given the perceived risk I suspect of exactly this happening.
https://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/files/docs/2021-01/BLM-Alaska_Coastal-Plain-Lease-Sale_Results_Map_20210106.pdf
Olderwiser -thanks for posting.
I have read a lot of your extremely knowledgable thoughts and analysis on 88e over the years on HC and still remember how well you called the results on Charlie-1 before they announced it and sold up prior to the share prices plummeting in April 2020
The fact that you're active with Pantheon is highly encouraging as I presume that means you're bullish on them? Is that the case?
Thanks