Member Info for Neversellshell22

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/050721-fuelng-completes-singapores-first-ship-to-ship-bunkering-of-lng-fueled-oil-tanker

Please copy your entrant in with all the all the other.

NSS £3.18

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/your-vote-counts-focus-agms-rolls-royce-astra-and-bp-ii516004?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-DLY-ENGAGE-afternoon_round_up_070521%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=13313914&spUserID=MTM4NzM1MzkwNDA1S0&spJobID=1750894152&spReportId=MTc1MDg5NDE1MgS2

Up 5% on the week so would love to see some more of that next week......

Oil holding firm and all looking good for a slow and steady rise to me.....

Covid still on way out, world opening, Sleepy Joe, Holiday, Renewables,,,ydie, ydie, ydie....

Roll on next week....

The London stock Exchage have it at £3.1355 so I make that a narrow win to Wheresmymoneygone....

Well done old chap.....

And now please some words from your "View on The Hill ......

OUR WINNER....Wheresmymoneygone

If I started the competition and should win it would that be classed as insider information.....lol

Looking forward to the "Friday Club View From The Hill' statement from our winner.....

Looks like an exciting finish.....Dont forget we would like the winner to make a short statement/speech....Just for fun....

Moneyboy5000 £1.00
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I can see them hitti g their debt target in Q2 and then watch the sparks fly.

I would imagine so chunky Buy backs and who knows they might push up the dividend although they have said its set for this year.

I kind of a perfect storm for decent oilers right now with Sleepy Joes stimulus, Covid ending, Opec, lack of investment over last 5 years etc etc If oil is 70$ now it could easily pass 80$ when Covid is mostly nailed in the coming months.

Lots of chat abot BP and Shell going back to their previous prices and who knows in a year or 2 anything is possible. Several USA oilers are there or there about already.....

Another day another dollar...............

2%.....

How do you make that out ?

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/bp-and-pure-planet-announce-the-launch-of-a-smart-energy-control-platform

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/320809/bp-ceo-oguk-conference/

https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/14202753/big-oil-could-see-proven-reserves-run-out-in-less-than-15-years

https://allafrica.com/stories/202105060308.html

I cannot think for 1 second that the "here comes the £2.90" brigade make the slightest difference to BP share price.

Decent day overall and I bagged some more Shell as well....

Just my life story...lol...

To add insult I bought some much higher a month or so ago....

Onwards and upwards....

Go to be on a winner long term surely......lol

What we need to note is that BP is explicit in stating that qtr2 to qtr4 2021 it uses $50 for Brent. We know that for every $1 over $50 BP generates a additional $340M (annual). RMM and Henry Hub I reckon will be cash neutral qtr2 …so it is a case of doing the maths and you can see why BL is so upbeat.. FWIW I expect BP to again surprise on the upside qtr2 and double the buyback in qtr3.

BL reminds me of the smart people at work who greatly under promise and then over deliver ..All in all seems like to me that the SP will be heading north assuming the POO does not tank… imo….

Great post from gwatson56 on ADVN.....Many thanks

Did a little reading and below are some interesting statements from the Qtr 1 results , press briefing and the weekly trading conditions update.

hTTps://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/trading-conditions-update.html

hTTps://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bp-first-quarter-2021-results.pdf

The Wall Street Journal (27/4/21)

“We’ve got a pretty optimistic outlook on buybacks for the remainder of the year but we’re going to do it quarter by quarter,” said BP Chief Executive Bernard Looney. “Depending of course on [the oil] price, I think next year you can very easily imagine a world where our distributions to shareholders are at or above the pre-pandemic levels”

Translated in my mind to 1.064B per quarter in Dividend’s and as per above expectation this financial year [reckon from qtr3] 1.064B per quarter on average for buybacks. Note that surplus cash flow @ 60% is after the cost of the $500M in qtr 1.

Also note the assumption is the oil price (reckon circa av qtr2 $65 myself) and if Goldman Sachs are right at $80 third quarter then BP have stated for full year 2021 every $1 increase in POO ($50 is their stated expectation) is worth an extra $340M (annual), so that will be the “above” bit…

The 2 notes quoted below were within the First Quarter 2021 results.

“BP is introducing an intent going forward to offset dilution from vesting of awards under employee share schemes through buybacks. Surplus cash flow* is now defined after the cost of buying back these shares.”

“In addition, bp remains committed to returning at least 60% of surplus cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.”

Translated again from the qtr 1 results $1.7B surplus cash and note the $500M is deducted therefore I reckon the surplus cash war chest is some $1.2B which equates to $720M “60% for shareholders prudently carried forward to qtr2 (assuming no loss to cover).… Well that’s my reckoning….

Moving on I was also interested in the statement’s from the qtr 1 results .

“During the first quarter, bp generated surplus cash flow of $1.7 billion after having reached its net debt target of $35billion. During the second quarter, cash flow is expected to be impacted by the $1.2 billion pre-tax annual Gulf of Mexico oil spill payment, further severance payments and a smaller improvement in realized refining margins relative to the quarter to date rise in our RMM*. As a result of these factors we expect a cash flow deficit in the second quarter.”

“In the second half of the year bp expects to generate surplus cash flow above an oil price of around $45 per barrel with an RMM of around $13 per barrel and Henry Hub of $3 per mmBtu.”

So the % difference pre and post dividend (ie after todays drop) is approx 1.3%....

Is that correct....??

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/new-energies/new-energies-media-releases/shell-launches-its-first-european-ev-mobility-hub-in-paris.html?utm_medium=social_organic&utm_content=___&utm_campaign=__-_&utm_source=twitter&postid=4787927539&linkId=117931902