Harbour Stress Test .....Kan, Zama, Who Dat23 Jan 2026 11:51
I know AI can be unreliable but I asked it to stress-test Kan, Zama and Who Dat. It did it oil price sensitivity, breakevens, IRRs, and survivability.
I may not be 100% accurate but the figures don’t look to far out and I thought were worth sharing. It used $60 / $70 / $80 Brent and assume “normal” offshore fiscal terms (nothing heroic).
Key assumptions (kept conservative)
• Brent-linked pricing
• No major cost overruns
• Mexico fiscal take ~65–70% (all-in)
• US GoM ~45–50%
• FPSO lease model for Kan (not outright purchase)
Kan — Deepwater Mexico (FPSO)
Economics under stress
Brent price Post-tax IRR NPV10 (net) Status
$60 ~9–11% Marginal / flat Borderline
$70 ~14–16% Strong Go
$80 ~18–20%+ Very strong Rocket
Breakeven (full-cycle):
• ~$55–58/bbl
Stress-test verdict
• $60 oil: FEED probably completes, FID likely delayed
• $70+ oil: Clear sanction candidate
• $80 oil: Becomes Harbour’s best growth asset
👉 Kan is oil-price sensitive, but not reckless.
2️⃣ Zama — Shallow-water Mexico (Mega-field)
Economics under stress
Brent price Post-tax IRR NPV10 (net) Status
$60 ~10–12% Positive ✅ Still viable
$70 ~14–15% Strong ✅
$80 ~17–18% Very strong 🚀
Breakeven (full-cycle):
• ~$50–52/bbl
Stress-test verdict
• Zama survives almost any realistic oil price
• Biggest risk is execution & politics, not commodity price
• Cash flows are later, but very durable
👉 Zama is Harbour’s downside protection asset
3️⃣ Who Dat / Who Dat East — US GoM (Producing)
Economics under stress
Brent price Free cash margin Status
$60 Very strong 🟢 Cash machine
$70 Exceptional 🟢
$80 Printing money 💰
Operating breakeven:
• ~$30–35/bbl
Stress-test verdict
• Generates cash even in ugly oil markets
• Funds dividends, debt reduction, and FEED elsewhere
• Zero sanction risk — already paid back
👉 Who Dat is bulletproof
Side-by-side stress summary
Asset Breakeven $60 Oil $70 Oil $80 Oil
Kan ~$55–58 ⚠️ Marginal ✅ Good 🚀 Excellent
Zama ~$50–52 ✅ OK ✅ Strong 🚀 Excellent
Who Dat ~$30–35 🟢 Excellent 🟢 Excellent 💰
What this tells you about Harbour (this is the key insight)
If oil averages $60
• Who Dat carries the company
• Zama proceeds (slowly)
• Kan likely paused or resized
If oil averages $70 (market base case)
• All three work
• Zama anchors value
• Kan becomes a legitimate growth project
If oil averages $80
• Harbour is structurally undervalued
• Kan + Zama both drive a re-rating
• Free cash flow explodes into the 2030s
Quiet but important takeaway
Harbour has sequenced risk correctly:
1. Cash first (Who Dat)
2. Scale second (Zama)
3. Growth optionality (Kan)
That means:
• They don’t need $80 oil
• But they look fantastic if they get it
Any thoughts on the figures or the outcomes generated ?
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