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Thank you all for really excellent post.
My last post was about the £3.60 share price which I’m struggling to see is notional. BASF must have been given certain assurances regarding this or a further cash equivalent if it does hit that price.
Appreciate everyone’s thoughts and get to have a decent board now.
For me we have got a good deal with massive potential from Mexico, Argentina huge and could go exponential and Norway will keep delivering the goods. That’s with out our own goodies Andanam etc…
So Harbour have stated they will "issue Harbour equity". "For the purpose of converting this into a shareholding a value of £3.60 per share was agreed with the sellers.
Does this some how guarantee the shares to be worth at least £3.60? If not what does it mean and if there is no guaranteed £3.60 price why did Wintershall Dea do the deal?
Any thoughts ?
Https://www.ft.com/content/08fa8ef9-8da9-49d0-97ab-3abbe5855d50
Hi londoner7,
Thank you so much for a very detailed and thoughtful post.
I cant fault any of your figures which all seem pretty spot on but as we know Gas is currently very very low whilst oil is now in a better places. You can easily get doomsters who say they will both fall further but there has been a real cull in exploration expenditure in recent years so could easily go the other way which is what I believe will happen and the alternative energy sources just aren't ready to take over yet.
Re the cash flow for the 2.14 Billion there is also the Wintershall Dea production which I know has been negative so far this year but Im sure that will magically change now and we have up to end of this year to go with approx 500bopd equivalent and then ofcourse our bridging loan of 1.5$ Billion. So rabbits out of hats there I expect.
Whilst I cant argue with your figures as always we don't get all the facts and for multiple banks to be willing to get involved in a deal with over 11 thousand millions dollars, thats a big number they must be more than convinced the deal is on firm ground especially after talks with multiple people who are confident Harbour will get investment grade in future.
Thanks again for great post....
NSS
I didn't realise that this was such an important part of the deal. Whist it still needs all external parties to agree to it to me it looks like the actual deal between Harbour and Wintershall is pretty much nailed on.
https://www.eqs-news.com/news/adhoc/basf-se-harbour-energy-plc-and-the-shareholders-of-wintershall-dea-sign-business-combination-agreement/1965081
I've spoken to some pretty sensible people who believe that actual true value of Harbour should land at about 15$ Billion when things settle down which if correct will give us an SP of.........?????
They have had a couple of months to look at this appraisal well so might get so news on it soon. 40 % is Wintershall Dea share, 44-75 million oil equivalent and 6-25 million for the deeper "Are" discovery.
Might get some news with our results in a couple of weeks.
https://wintershalldea.com/en/newsroom/pi-23-44
Just appreciate anyone’s thoughts why we got this deal over them.
Don’t get me wrong I’m pro deal but surely they could have just paid the price and done the deal.
Clearly Wintershall see something big in being partners with us for a few years.
Any thoughts.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/adnoc-weighing-wintershall-dea-acquisition/
Considering we are the 2nd biggest producer in the world with about 16% and that it generates around half of our profits this can be a bad thing..
Even Prelude might may it’s way at some stage..lol
https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-lng-demand-seen-rising-more-than-50-by-2040-shell-report-2024-02-14/
Https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/wintershall-dea-installs-unmanned-platform-for-fenix-gas-project-offshore-argentina
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-start-gas-production-argentinas-fenix-field-2024-2023-09-13/
BUENOS AIRES / KASSEL / HAMBURG. Wintershall Dea and its partners TotalEnergies (operator) and Pan American Energy have successfully completed the installation of the Fénix platform, around 60 kilometer off the coast of Tierra del Fuego, in 70 meter water depth.
“The successful installation of the production platform marks another significant milestone for the Fénix field development, which keeps the project on track for the planned first gas in Q4 2024”, says Manfred Boeckmann, Managing Director of Wintershall Dea Argentina. “Fénix represents a material pillar for the growing domestic gas production and will support Argentina to meet the increasing demand and to offset imports, by contributing significant natural gas volumes for more than 15 years to the country’s long-term energy supply”, Boeckmann adds.
Given the size of the project, the logistics and the installation of the 4,800 ton platform were carried out in two phases: first the installation of the jacket with four piles in January, followed by the successful lift and setting of the 1,500 ton deck topside.
Starting on January 8, the deck was transported from the Rosetti Marino shipyard in Italy to Tierra del Fuego within a month on board the heavy transport ship HTV Interocean II. Four vessels were involved in the installation of both parts of the platform, led by Heerema’s heavy lift vessel Aegir. All work was completed safely and without incident.
The deck of the Fénix platform covers a surface area of 2,500 square meter and consists of five levels: the helipad, the upper deck, the main deck with the wellheads and instrument room, and the lower deck. The platform is designed to be operated from shore without the need for a permanent crew.
“With the installation of the platform we have completed the surface facilities part of the Fénix development project within the targeted schedule”, underlines Mariano Cancelo, Vice President Production and Development at Wintershall Dea in Argentina. “Our focus will now switch to the next step, which is the drilling of three production wells”, he says.
The drilling of the wells will be executed with a jack-up drilling rig which will be temporarily located next to the Fénix platform. First gas production is envisaged in November 2024.
Fénix is part of the world’s southernmost gas production concession CMA-1 in which Wintershall Dea and TotalEnergies (operator) each hold a 37.5 per cent share while Pan American Energy holds the remaining 25 per cent.
https://wintershalldea.com/en/newsroom/pi-24-03
Very good update but hardly any mention of Energy Level tax except they are paying it in full. Seems they are happy to carry on in North Sea with all of their eggs there.
Surely if they can make it work we can do likewise.?
They don’t mention the effect of the Energy profit Levy other than to say they are paying it in full in 2024.
Thought they might have made some kind of comment about it and how it will effect them going forward?
Great update…..
Just wondered what people consider might be a fair SP for us when this all shakes out.
500k BOOD
1.1 Billion isn’t reserves.
I know it’ll be a finger in the air job by one of our numbersmiths might fancy a go at it?…
Over 160$ billion of assets so certainly not a small fish……
Noticed a new shorter on this page..
https://www.man.com/glg#_who-we-are
No idea what they are up to, why the sudden interest or who they are acting for.
Any thoughts?……..
Sorry its protected but you get the message.....
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/547649/wintershall-dea-harbour-energy-germany/
Thanks Nitro, good finds.
I would hope we get some initial news with our results..
We’re pleased to announce that we’ve joined the Oil & Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, a reporting framework established by the UN Environment Programme to prioritise methane mitigation actions across the global oil and gas industry.
The partnership brings together more than 120 companies with operations in more than 70 countries, representing over 38 per cent of the world’s oil and gas production. Members then report annually on their methane emissions and take action to drive methane reductions.
https://ogmpartnership.com/a-solution-to-the-methane-challenge/
Im confident in Harbour but British Bulls have got it right on Harbour 25% of their last 12 predictions...
Hardly nailed on....
Its actually doesn the opposite and reduces income massively.......