Member Info for NeverSayNever1

The significant Oil Price drop of Q4 2014 onwards (and the subsequent underinvestment in Exploration since) was only as a direct result of the massive increase in US Shale production, Iran at it's peak was producing 3.9M bpd of which more than 2M bpd is used for home energy consumption. Even if Iran production/exports are allowed to return to global markets post a renewed JCPOA by Biden administration (and that's a big if with Trump administrations recently imposed obstacles in place, and Iran elections not until another 8 months which will likely prevent any potential negotiations in H1 2021), Iran's underinvested aging fields can at first only provide few hundred thousand additional bpd (and likely only from 2022 onward), whereas as GS this time smartly stated "A Biden administration could provide a further boost to oil prices by making production — especially for shale — more expensive and more regulated".

Hence, any eventual additional barrels coming out of Iran (2022 onward) will by far be outweighed by potential drops in US Shale Production, IMOO, DYOR.

Interesting read now with Biden confirmed as President-elect:

“We do not expect the U.S. elections to derail our bullish forecasts for oil and gas prices, with a Blue Wave likely to be in fact a positive catalyst,” Goldman Sachs’ commodities team wrote.

"A Biden administration could provide a further boost to oil prices by making production — especially for shale — more expensive and more regulated."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/12/goldman-says-biden-election-win-could-be-positive-for-oil-prices.html

HUR is by far the most undervalued share in the FTSE today, IMHO, it cannot last at these levels here for much longer.

HUR assets/licenses lie in an extremely prolific/rich region, and not surprising to see increased interest here, whether M&A related or otherwise at present much suppressed SP levels. O&G M&A activity is picking up, particularly in the North Sea and HUR is undoubtedly a potential prize target, however, any bidder(s) will require to put forward an incredibly juicy premium (12-14p range min. if this year IMO) to have any chance of success here at current lowball Market Capitalisation levels, IMHO.

And why would an "Active Investor" like CA significantly increase their stake to 11.6% in a share that has a one of the biggest spreads around in today's extremely volatile global markets for "day trading" when they can easily make much better returns on other trades/shares unless they truly believed in the huge potential and current undervaluation in HUR, DYOR.

Jimo

Simply looking at HUR assets/licenses (along with additional exploration & development potential in same areas), cash in the bank, tax credits, present day production and potential enhancements,......which are all the things any bidder would look at (along with future POO) both inside and out of a data room would IMOO, put a viable bid price for HUR at way more than 12-14p levels where I was actually being rather conservative in my estimates.

North Sea Assets (particularly where HUR assets/licenses rest) are becoming increasingly attractive to investors, and once normality returns and post US elections as POO improves, O&G M&A buzz will further increase. Hence as already stated, if a bid/takeover were to happen this year, offer price with premium has to minimum be in the 12-14p range for it to have chance of success with the bod/shareholders IMO, and needless to say, much higher if next year or beyond with potential for lot higher Oil prices.

If a bid/takeover were to happen this year, offer price with premium has to minimum be in the 12-14p range for it to have chance of success with the bod/shareholders IMO, and needless to say, much higher if next year or beyond with potential for lot higher Oil prices.

I think what we should now be watching is post 03 Nov/US Elections, Monday as simply a trading day here is irrelevant in my opinion.

Markets are forward looking by nature, hence the relating phrase "Buy the Rumour, Sell the News", and when it comes to HUR SP, IMO, almost every potential pessimistic doom & gloom scenarios are already well too priced in, thereby, even a whiff of positives will be sufficient for massive breakouts in my humble opinion.
GLA

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"Oil Climbs With Signs of Stimulus Progress Aiding Demand Outlook":
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-21/oil-holds-near-40-after-slumping-on-u-s-stockpile-increase

Outlook and sentiment for O&G seems to be improving, supply demand picture says much the same for the post Pandemic period which bodes very well for HUR IMO.

Agree, HUR SP certainly looking extremely tempting for top ups here at these valuations, huge upward re-rate potential is clearly there and now has the feel of immanency to it somehow IMHO.

Energy sector today is the most undervalued sector in the stock market, crude supply is tightening while demand is slowly but surely picking up with no viable alternatives to O&G around at present, HUR is decently producing with a brutally kitchen sinked SP that must surely only go upward from these nonsense levels based on company fundamentals, of course in my opinion only.

Likely closed their short position and moved on.

Compelling Analysis, thanks.

"U.S. crude supplies fell 5.42 million barrels last week: API"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/oil-rally-loses-steam-as-hopes-fade-for-timely-u-s-stimulus

Good posts, very much share the sentiment, and remain very much positive over the longer term, massive undervaluation here is clearly noted.

But nevertheless, looking good here at present.