Member Info for nevergonnaretire

Watched this brief (paid for) podcast with AP, and he mentioned that Baita was at breakeven for the QTR.. I assume he meant Q3.. in which 354 DMT Conc was sold at an average of 21% grade.

At LME spot price for conc that would equate at just over $600k sales in Q3, meaning a running cost now at $200k per month.. this sounds very very low, so one would summise that the gold/silver credits are outweighing Mercurias cut and tolling costs.. am i missing something? Or is this just more gumf..

Must be time to get molybdenum circuit online.. :)

https://total-market-solutions.com/2023/11/vast-resources-plc-nov-2023/

Vast have pretty much said in recent rns that they will need ongoing funds to run the business at a whole going into 2024.. Baita will continue to stabilise and improve going into 2024, but sadly this will not be quick enough to prevent more dilution should diamonds not arrive by then.. highly unlikely imo..

There still will be the need to place hedge.. that is until Baita supports the entire business or external funding is in place.

The bigger Baita gets, the more chance of being noticed by a 'larger' player.. where that road goes who knows.

Price is acting as though another placing expected shortly. Hopefully agm comes and goes with permission to raise, but no raise.. then January comes..

AP now (imo) doesn't believe diamonds will come anytime soon, and has positioned Vast accordingly (RNS debt payments) the talk will be slowly and quietly moved away from the sparklers and onto other projects.

Watch for the pumps this week, as people try to sell for a cheaper pickup is a placing takes place..

Then there's the situation ref Barclays selling out.. I can't see a positive here

Not good.. what makes it worse in my eyes is the likes of investingenius back on the board.. another placing in the making..?

Capstone... ? Who knows..

Logic would say sell, I couldn't buy that low for most/all of PM.. buuuttt... I suppose could have been delayed buy from very early am..

Not many investors have that many to sell, slightly worryingly..

As you say, we will see today..

That being said, it touches on what Sandyshore commented on previously regarding costs saving and bulking up deliveries in an attempt to save costs.. which may be why there were odd months of nothing being sold, something imo Vast have to refine now the ramp up in production transfers into free cash to pay down debt..

All good imo, and the ducks are finally looking to be getting in a row.

US$50,000 from each concentrate sale made thereafter from Baita Plai....

I wonder how many 'sales' per month ther are.. 1,.more..?

I believe that it will be good.. and the green shoots of profitability at Baita will allow the debt to be repaid in small chunks, that is until diamonds arrive..

As expected.. extension paperwork arranged.. but something new... the beginnings of a payment plan.. 🤔

I agree Vast is currently undervalued considering Baita, but not much.. the debt is what is weighing Vast down..

Current fair value imo - 0.2p - 0.25p

Kever, I've seen your comments over on advfn - the Devils hole Full TW's cronies..

If the market believed this would happen, then we wouldn't be at 0.15p.. I was excited at the start of the year, when the announcements started to come through about diamonds.. but now I believe that if they arrive, it won't be soon enough to cancel Vasts current liabilities.. Baita and Tajik are going to have to do this, something imo which is being worked on currently.. the new JORC (next year..?) should enable them to source funding to both pay off current liabilities and expand mechanised operations to multiples of what they are currently, in the months and years to come I believe we will be looking at sales and production figures of 1000+DMT per month enabling a free cashflow to then restart at Manailla..

What would the share price be then.. 2p, 3p....

Diamonds are the cherry on top that may or may not happen, I like many others now refuse to get pulled into such a conversation on wether they will come back home.. and like it not, the future of this company involves Baita becoming the monster it once was and, seemingly, managing an ever increasing asset base in Tajikistan

Now that the dust has settled, we can finally begin to look into the Q3 data in an attempt to predict what will happen next.. my initial gut reaction to the Halloween rns' was one of disbelief, as everything was seemingly being set up for a huge statement and therefore increase in share price to boot.. but the reality was one one of a few hit and misses..

June's break even month where 167 DMT was sold @ 22% purity, has not been matched for purity since,

If, say there's a monthly running cost of around $300k at Baita (June's breakeven month suggests this) and also assuming current copper conc prices, plus gold & silver credits match both Mercurias cut and tolling costs:

July's sales of nil = $300k loss for the month

August's sales of 173 DMT @ 20% purity would equate to a loss of $18k

September's sales of 181 DMT @ 21% purity would then equate to a $10k profit

So, Q3 as a whole made a loss of a rough figure $308k.. you then have to look at why no sales in odd months of the year, like July - is it costs saving, or are Vast struggling to offload the conc at the price they want..? For whatever the reason, Vast now has the ability to be a neck (or a nose) ahead of break-even with current inventories of 598 DMT equating to holding almost $1million, or just over 3 months of costs at Baita..

September suggests the trajectory now feels decent going into both Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.. world demand suggests that Vast should have no trouble in selling its concentrate,.and with other metals now coming into production and an expanded JORC compliant mineral resource, this monster will begin to wake up in 2024.. as will markets to the inevitability that both Baita and Vast are here to stay.

Touching on debt and diamonds which, seemingly, cancel each other out - I'm of the increasing opinion that a payment plan will be arranged using the eventual proceeds from Tajik and the new MOU in regards to the Aprelevka Gold mine that Vast will have an interest in due to agreeing to managing the mines.

All in all, some positives.. but still questions, many many questions.. 🙄

Capstone at 260 million.. 5.99%

What do you mean..?

Totally agree Sandy.. I don't even think Q1 2024 will budge this price now based on these figures.. so we are again left with the fading possibility of diamonds being captured and any volume from Tajik, not enough imo to stop more dilution in possibly January.

As for debt, there is nothing I can see which would make me think that Vast could reconsolidate this by offsetting Baita conc.. maybe another 2 Qtrs, but right now Vast will be scratching around trying to see if they can get terms with Alpha at the end of this month.. not a good position to be in imo

This is, imo, the poorest rns that Vast could have put out, considering they were at break even for thr month of July, it has, seemingly, gone backwards.. we have very little detail to go on as usual..

A poor set of figures, loans due, little.money left until both Baita and Tajik start coffing up more money..

Things are bot looking good, and it is rightly highlighted by the current share price.

I am long here x 28 million.

1p + is a long way off for this,.and don't be suckered in by those who shout this to the rooftops.. look at the reports, then decide for yourself.

New lows coming imo..

The diamonds have already served their purpose by allowing several raises at higher levels to keep the company going.. all whilst bringing Baita to the cusp of profitability, and Tajik funds to start flowing

.. for a bit longer imo