Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Laura, if you like Pharma, have a look at AVACTA.
Art, not sure what I’ve posted has confirmed there is no RTO with Allwyn, quite the opposite.
They will need someone who knows the business of Allwyn on the other side of the shell company to really make this work, who else is better positioned than David?
A Uk listing makes sense for a company like Allwyn
Not an awful lot out there on the other director Rohan... his company on company house has been dormant tbh... not much out there on him.
Https://www.business-live.co.uk/retail-consumer/ceo-behind-new-uk-national-27381212
Itsarm also confirmed that the new directors intend to enter into an acquisition or acquisitions which would constitute a reverse takeover.
The company said: "At this time there is no certainty as to the exact structure, identity or timing of such a transaction(s) but the proposed directors are assessing a number of potential opportunities."
Announced in 12 Jan 2023
Allwyn Group has confirmed to SBC that Group CEO Robert Chvátal has assumed the role of Interim CEO of Allwyn UK “to drive on the transition towards the start of the Fourth Licence of The National Lottery” beginning on 1 February 2024.
The leadership change sees David Craven, who has served as Allwyn UK CEO since June 2021, depart the company with immediate effect.
Beginning Feb 2024 for 4th license is interesting, wondering how long the RTO could take?
There might have been a conflict of interest, sat as both the CEO of the incoming company and the outgoing company. He spent 2 years at the company, and leaves at the start of a big contract win... a strange time to leave.... RTO in US pulled by Allwyn is interesting, and him coming over to another shell company...
Whole lot of stuff going on since Dec 2022, and early 2023 with ITS... just as David Craven leaves Allwyn in Jan 2023 seems all a little bit too connected together tbh to ignore...you dont just leave a company literally given a 4th license for the lottery going strength to strength... why would you leave after doing all the hard work for a Shell company paying £1 salary?
Is David still the CEO of Allwyn?
https://sbcnews.co.uk/featurednews/2023/01/12/allwyn-uk-ceo-switch/
Massive re-rates all over the place on AIM at the moment. lots of 100% stocks flying.
Meanwhile, we have a drug with at least 50/50 chance of taking over and improving an already existing drug overnight worth £bn's, trial ongoing for over 2 years and cash in the bank.
Here we are, languishing at lows again.... soon it will be our turn...
Good grief, just seen this from the latest share chat and every time i refresh the page its gone up another 20% wtf is going on!?
We also have HCI looming over like a dark cloud, if they decided to hold this time, would be excellent news as we are in this data vacuum as trial just gets on with it.
Buyers are probably waiting to see where the SP takes should they dump again, withholding topping up or entry to gain a better entry, and LTH are just... holding...
Its always just a little silly to me, although buying more shares every time it dips is fantastic, but in the grand scheme of things, saving 10-20% today... on a SP that could be worth x10+ is more about how many you can get not what price you bought in at. . . its just penny pinching.
I often wonder how many LTH are actually underwater. I am also 20% underwater but very confident in holding - like many researched PI.
If 50% of PI's who own 80% of the company are underwater and have not sold, says a whole lot about the SP, and that traders are in control of the SP. Meaning nearly half of the MCAP of the company are continually to hold, even when at a loss, viewing the company being valued more than currently. Lack of buying is a problem, but are the current buyers just simply maxed out?
How do we see an uplift to the SP then? Solid news has to start changing the buying base, new cash needs to come in from elsewhere, LTH are likely exhaused, if the SP drops further im sure many will take advantage, but not do a great deal to the SP improvement above current range than finding a new larger investor base.
A large II buying in, following re-joining the Index would see strong improvement to the SP, we cant rely on PI's as even if completion of P1a, there is still along way to go following that.. c.12 months, which is a long time for PI's to hold in this market, on speculative stocks. (bar us crazy crew)
Also says alot about the current SP when we were at £1.80 not so long ago, and we have continued to make great progress.
Does the SP make sense? Not to me... but im not here for £2 TP... Im here for the Buy out.
Gracie, where do they get that many shares from? and who is the who?
Say they picked up shares from HCI, they would have to disclose their position fairly quickly before they could get anywhere close to completing 20%...
If say Norvartis disclosing 3% bought... wouldnt send the market into overdrive... i dont know what would
PL... i think he said... at this moment.. a license deal is not worth £100m
When we are still defining the first candidate's MTD, never mind finishing P1a... I can understand the hesitancy. More data and the license deal commands more and the risk dissipates for the buyer win / win for both.
Doesnt mean at some point, say following P1a... a licence deal is not worth £100m up front.
Its a bit of a strange dilemma tbh.
We have been in a trading range from £1.40 to about 90p for months. even if you took £1.80 we havent been at that range for long.
So for us to reach £3... we will need excellent news, like a license deal. But if Avacta are going to do a license deal, i think would value us more than £3. Is P1a worth £3? Maybe? who knows.
So if any good news that would get us to £3 is likely worth more than a SP of £3 means, we dont reach £3 until the SP is worth much more with proven evidence.
A license deal for £100m upfront and lots more in milestones for development of a standalone candidate, not 3996 or 6000 is obviously worth more than £3 SP as the whole dynamic of the company changes overnight. With throughput funding secured and validation of commercialization of precision, etc etc.
A buy out is also likely also.... maybe more substantial rumours would get us to £3....
what I'm saying long winded, is we might have more chance of seeing £5+ than seeing just £3
Rah will be happy with the following, prompting to take a guess at CoS.
Sure, I can give you a guess. Based on the information that I have, I would say that the chances of success for AVA6000 are about 50/50. The drug has shown some promising results in early clinical trials, but it is still in the early stages of development. There are still some risks associated with the drug, and it is important to wait for the results of the Phase 1b trial before making any predictions about its future.
Wyn, no, you aren’t “just” saying. This is what you wrote:
“To date AS has put Back the end of P1a 4 times”
I’ll re-write
“To date, Avacta’s lead preCISION prodrug AVA6k has excelled all expectations and the trial continues with dose escalation to higher levels”
See the difference? You imply it’s the CEO’ fault we haven’t finished the trial, when it’s the function of the trial to find MTD. And as I’ve explained, can’t guess when it ends, because as new data presents, etc etc.
I’m fairly relaxed about entertaining the issues Avacta face, but most of your concerns is pretty standard for trial work for small cap bio.
You want no money worries? Go invest in AZ etc.
But you will still, even when invested in larger bios, still be at liberty to the trial progress, the data that comes out and the follow on action to progress, even he’ll forbid, progression that leads to longer lead time to completion.
and before i get a story in response, its quite easy to pick one thing that avacta can fail at...theres thousands of things that can go wrong, the evidence of doubt and huge challenge is vastly against avacta, all you have to do is pick anything, sitting in your y fronts in your house and say they wont make it. avacta, have to get thousands of things right, and all you do is ***** about them.
if you have done any real world work, you will know that "stuff" gets delayed, progressed beyond original scope and with such elongated timeframes, budgets get stretched.
Only thing we cant make up is your understanding of trials and escalating to find MTD.
You talk like the company has missed targets, hasn't been prepared for the trial, the trial is underfunded so its been on pause.
You're so thick that you cant understand that, this trial could have finished at C1, and ended, or an MTD found at C1 and we moved into P1B, or we escalate to C7-8-9 who knows.. because the drug is found to be that good.
You complain about getting abuse, because you dismiss some facts, to suit your own agenda... and then complain others are dismissing your facts... want respect? Then also give it.
DTW, except if you actually watched the program about GameStop, the movement was nothing to do with fundamentals of GameStop, but everything about them shorting more shares than there were to short.it is a failing business as more games go virtual / download, it’s hard to keep a high street footprint when everything moves online, it’s too expensive on overheads.
Hence it was a mother of all short squeezes, and was a chance to punish those super greedy.
The differences here, is the fundamentals i.e data and trial progress are currently sound, and there is no short squeeze.
Quite the opposite to GameStop, but I get what you were trying to say regarding market valuations, however I think it a lot more pertinent to be more like Apple when they were on the cusp of the iPhone, nobody took them, the direction. And technology seriously until the sales figures come in.
When will he realise this isnt a factory suffering production delays.
This is real and very sick people, using cutting edge science by a small biotech. Even the big boys struggle with trials and sticking to timeframes, its the inherent nature of running cancer trials.
Theres a fine balance to being frustrated and impatient and dam right ignorant and you cross that line many times Wyn.. maybe its why you get so much abuse.
I'm happy to view alternate views, and criticise, but you need to think twice sometimes before posting.