Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Ill put it in another way.
I want to write and sell a book and make millions. I barely have enough cash to write it in the first place.
Do I need to buy a publisher and a book shop to do it?
Or do you just get on and write the bloody book first?
Buddy...
We have enough "cash" going out the door every Qtr on this folly of Dx fantasy, which at the moment is decimating the SP. No amount of Dx Purchasing, fund raising, loans etc.. for Dx is going to make this company.
The value per £ spent is in Tx END OF.
My position will not change till I see some leveraged IP being used in Dx.
Think ABDX would be a good fit. Has all the benifits that Avacta might be looking to seek when looking at vertical supply chain from R&D (Affimer products) to Manufacturing (ABDX) sales / distribution (Launch).
I just dont think the timing is right yet.. and i think Avacta has stated as much in the last presentation. At £10m... plus any premium for a BO... I think its possibly too expensive for us at the moment.
Future aspiration? Yes.. a need right now? No.
Get some products developed. Partner with ABDX during... then use further capital to bring all in house.
You rent a factory first and then try sell your products.
You dont buy the factory... then realize you have nothing to sell.
Wyn... its as simple as.
Disregarding fully understanding the ins and outs.
The average punter thinks its in P1 trial still. incredibly early, on its first attempt..
Theres alot of Rampy and Derampy noise about the shares tho the SP seems all over the place. Who to trust?
Mixed messages on RNS - Are we a Dx company or a Tx company? Seems most of the cash would be assigned to Dx.. strange and confusing funding spends. We now have significant SP downward Pressure every Q.
SP was at ATH on the potential of Billions £ on an LFT sale, which didn't materialize. We havent been close since regardless of the progress on Tx.
-----Until we see significant milestones in trial achieved, P1a closure, P1B etc. Cash via license, BO..the SP will be messed about with.
Launch can do the marketing of any self made tests.
Its mainly what they do... Sales.
Theres only 2 areas left. Manurfacturing... or developing.
theres obviously a little cross over, but for the funds available to avacta, probably cant reach for both at the moment.
why is this a discussion?
They categorically stated they are not looking to pursue Manufacturing Dx side of the M&A activity. So the likes of ABDX is out of the picture. Seems a bit of a desperate pump for ABDX tbh.
The strategy that was not dismissed was Co's that have IP in Self Testing.
Something that is a bit surprising since the whole direction of Dx for Avacta was to leverage Affirmers for self testing.. to use ther own IP... and logically, leverage that via a manufacturing company.
Maybe there will be a smaller acquisition on a small self testing co that have a positive balance sheet, use some of the team that develop tests to compliment Launch?
I suppose Dx development team are relatively small scale and might not have the capacity to develop such IP relevant self tests, and as such, acquiring such a "Oven ready" small dedicated team might be the direction?
Will we ever see £4 (Insert ATH figure here) or BO first?
The way the SP behaves to progress has had little effect to achieving ATH so far, so for us to reach £4 (£X) would mean... Very substantial news, Huge increase in sentiment, Extremely positive data etc.
My thoughts are... the chance of a Buy out will outpace us reaching ATH and beyond naturally. The potential natural "ATH" reachable SP would in essence ALSO be the trigger for the BO.
Investors are thinking when can we reach £3 £5 like we will go up in a linear scale. I just dont think the macro of the SP and company / investor base will allow this to happen...
I might be wrong... but IMO, I feel we are likely to see £XX BO offer than see £X naturally.
Wyn.. trying to read through that waffAL... (See what i did there)
Are you agreeing with me, disagreeing? Pretty much everything you said... is what I've already covered... just written out further.
Not sure what the post is about
Whys the SP in the gutter?
1. AIM Market.. full of Traders jumping from Pump to pump... hardly anyone investing long term nowadays. Its generally wild west.
2. Sector... Small Cap biotechs is a niche market, who invests in this market when there's plentiful of safer investment sectors.
3. Whos even heard of Avacta? AIM Market has plenty of jam tomorrow stories... how do you commit significant time to understand those who are the real deal and those with the cowboy CEO's?
4. On the surface... its still really early for alot of investors.. not even finished P1. Likely dont really understand the tech either. Either do Brokers and commentators.
5. Reputation.. Avacta still shaking off the poor performance of the LFT.. a real shame, FUD and those burned during them days might not be returning. Putting them down as a bad investment.
6. Biotechs overall have see a dip in recent times forcing investors into other sectors.
Good thing? BB has huge war chests with progressive M&A strategy's playing out now. Although they are still seeking value, there's not enough highly successful treatments to buy, so they are competing against one another for the best products. They also don't care much for the above, only data... and commercial opportunity. The rest is noise.
I have stopped caring about the day to day SP... its totally insignificant to me because I'm more interested in what the value is in 1-3 years time and what the BO figure will be.
Brokers determine over £2
PI's determine around £1.30
Actual value multiples above.
Here lies the RvR investment case... only thing you need to do is WAIT....
You can think of all yourselves as a Venture Capital.... an Angel Investor. You are in early... ahead of the heard, and with some luck... will hopefully be significantly richer in a few years.
Rare you get the opportunity like this... hence hesitation. Unicorn in the making.
RD, for someone who spends so much time on here... imagine only just working that out today.
They are not in distress for cash... why do they need to licence anything at this moment when they are creating value within the assets?
Only thing i think they licence is the platform for an ADC to develop their own.
They progress 6K and 3996 with any other financial options rather than sell one of them off.
Wish the question was more directed at Breakthrough at this stage rather than Fast Track.
Simple google would answer the question if Fast track is likely to be an approach at this stage.
Frustrating to hear that question and give him a bit of a get out.
Surely... you want little ol avacta bought out?
If so, then delays of any deals are ok for me at the moment as i want avacta to seek as much value creation as possible.
This means data, lots of data.
Any potential BO could have to include the following based on 5-7 years time. We are in value generating period for shareholders for BB BO. You dont want to cut this short now as your just hurting your potential gains. Wait as long as possible, gain as much progress independently then sell up should be on everyone's minds for maximum returns.
AVA6K P1 Complete
AVA3996 in Clinic
Next Pro drug selected.
Affixell at IND / NASDAQ