The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Ill reply...
If you actually looked at the links, it tells you if the co does overseas business, quite similar to launch diagnostics being on there but does quite alot of sales overseas... yes yes, i know its hard looking at new info.
Sometimes, I just like to post something different to CoS, Bagels and Americans, and Mr Ripley slaying trolls.
Another more recent list
https://www.bivda.org.uk/The-IVD-Industry/Find-a-Member
Ill have to spend some time looking, but if we are doing another M&A for diagnostics then these might be the targets... Will have to look at the books to see what we can afford.
https://www.bivda.org.uk/Portals/0/documents/members-info/Distributors%20List%202018.pdf
Milestone payment Affixel from IND?
IND 3996?
DE Details for 6K?
Diagnostic M&A purchase?
3996 license?
AACR Event, 3996 update, more info regarding 6K (PET?)
Probably others, news rich period coming soon, where this is going... those that know, aren't selling at 90p or £2.. and expected returns means its not about your entry price, but the amount of shares you hold.
While your on wife changing gains, on a yacht with Decaprio ... the poor shorters and FUDers will be stuck with their unsatisfied and disappointed other halfs.
This is a rookie drop.. we have seen worse.. and come back.
If you just ignored the Brokers for a min.
5% chance of Trial success is different from 5% chance of taking 100% of the market share.
Science vs Business
I think a number of posters have touched on this as a counter.
Rah, if you want to quote the brokers verbatim, at 20% CoS... and use that to establish why we currently not say at £57... Why are they recommending target price of £1.80?
You cant pick and chose what they publish to suit your narrative and after their recent "advice" to Avacta, regarding SD... I'm not holding them in high regard.
Rah, ill engage if im not blocked.
I've talked about the weighting of specific CoS during the process previously, and i know generally you can assign a CoS for P1 for brand new drugs etc based on info out there you have shared already.
In theory, The weighting might differ.
1. Its Avacta, not Az / Pfizer etc, this puts pressure on the CoS due to costs, knowledge, capability etc. They dont have the same resources as the big boys.
2. Weighting of CoS. Maybe 5% for P1, but linking to the above, the real challenge for Avacta will be the latter end due to these costs etc. and inability to produce the drug in house. Deals need to be cut, which adds chance of failure, something BB can mitigate. In Avacta's case for now, the CoS for P1a might only be 2%... because the CoS shifts more into the business end.
3. Trying not to sound like Wyndrum here, We dont know what deals need to be made to achieve us "Going alone" which is what you are basing SP on. I dont agree we go alone, and we get bought out, so I am more concerned about what BB would pay for the whole biz, not just 6K. This means any basic calculations now, are just best guess. There could be a ton more shares in circulation for instance which changes SP value calculations.
4. Money speaks and timeframes to sales. Unknown, currently Avacta are generally reliant on OO to keep biz running. Once more of the runway is understood, financial position for the latter periods of the development are understood, CoS will change and maybe... affecting CoS at the moment. Again, cash not something BB is generally struggling for when developing top tier drugs and CoS P1 comparisons might differ.
5. 5% for P1 would be an average between numerus trials. Some drugs / companies will be significantly higher than 5%... some significantly lower % at P1 due to the points above.
I dont really know how to calculate based on the unknowns.. so your best guess is something rather than nothing and at least your having a go at showing your workings to your calculations.
"I'm struggling to see how they can do enough cohorts to get anywhere close to MTD before summer. That's not to say they won't just that I think a simple DE of the size done previously won't be enough."
Well, if you and others were kinder to Ophidian, he might have shared some calculations on this which could give you an idea of how they could escalate. P.s its likely a huge jump to current dose escalations. it would take a long time to escalate using the current escalation frames and likely in the approval time window to have the dose regime amended.
We certainly wouldn't be anywhere near MTD on current dose escalations.
Food for thought.
Is this being confused with FDA Breakthrough?
https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track-breakthrough-therapy-accelerated-approval-priority-review/breakthrough-therapy
Orphan Drug status = 7 year exclusive rights
Breakthrough = Expedited P2
Fast Track = Expedited manufacturing
Seems HARL is a key player in the current political landscape and will be wheeled out as a gov success story.
Usually the case when gov gets involved in this size of deal with biz.
We will watch if this is a success story OR another initiative the gov got involved with and ballsed up. Quality of the BoD will be a key determination in navigating through the political space.
The more the gov align themselves, the more they will be forced to back and refuse to see this fail.
Small contract wins, delivery / execution will be of key interest outside the FSS contract.
Wyn... no need to dwell on the negative... just laid it all out for you in one go..
Come on... give us something positive... I know you have it in you somewhere? Dig deep, muster the courage. I believe in you.
Shall I do an Eminem on you Wyn?
We know we need to know when the next DE is and at what levels
We know we are close on timeframes to achieve summer P1a closure
We know we need to understand the MTD for P1B / P2
We know we will need more cash come P2
We know we need II investment to support the share price going forward
We know there's pumpers and derampers
We know the LFT failed to make millions
We know AS bought a house
Now what you going to say now I've got all the negative out the way?
The opposite has occurred good grief. Nothing to do with II's IMO.
The stock is mostly held by PI's, traders etc. Its just an opportune moment between Technical A expecting a downtrend, FUD being spread, No details on next escalation yet, Traders hoping to get a fast buck pre SD and a number of other factors.
Its been explained time and time again, II;s dont just call back to HQ after the presso and they put in an order for 50m shares and they execute that day.
Your reasoning is flawed.
Quite simple... as Per Jan RNS... we should be getting the details of the next DE within at least the next few weeks in order to achieve summer end of P1a. I assume, applications were made in Dec / Start of Jan which would have informed AS timeframes to say so.
Maybe even expected in time for SD. As others have suggested, timings might have slipped, and a few weeks for instance would be a missed opportunity for SD rather than anything else. So you can sell up in disappointment or "Lack of clarity" but it will come someday that's certain. Either we aren't escalating or not and this info wont be hidden for ever.
The way I see this, is a TO for Avacta, BB bring their resources into play, They then apply for Fast track status which should help them bring the manufacturing part quickly.
On the back of this, also having Orphan Drug status which gives them exclusivity for 7 years.
Aim to bring treatment to Soft Tissue Sarcoma first, as dox is the main standard of treatment, AVA6K becomes the new replacement, as explained by Dr Tap.
Even if you took the route it would take 2030 to achieve commercialization, even for BB, the market is staggering just for this. If you are worried, do more research. Even if you took the most pessimistic valuation of Avacta, its many many multiples of todays price., all you have to do is wait for BB to make their move. Tricky tho right? Waiting? Watching?
"Global Soft tissue sarcoma (STS) Market was valued at USD 3,595.41 Mn in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 6,465.70 Mn by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4% during the forecast period."
And whilst the SP takes a hit... emotions and frustrations bubble up.
Enviably ending up with this board becoming more personal attacks than anything remotely to do with Avacta. Standard LSE, no wonder its the same 10 posters all the time.. nobody else has time for it.