Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
One Fairly big bio who must have some concerns regarding this is Takeda.
Particularly statements like this
"Comparison to Velcade In a head-to-head study, AVA2727D killed cancers cells (ex-vivo) as effectively as bortezomib (Takeda’s Velcade) which is one of the approved proteasome inhibitors on the market."
https://www.ddw-online.com/data-shows-new-therapy-successfully-targets-solid-tumours-23165-202304/
Having drug becoming generic will be hurting the bottom line, should 3996 be approved, this might effectively replace it.
With $10bn sat in the bank, it makes perfect sense to me that they would be interested, and not had much M&A activity are they keeping their powder dry for Avacta?
Good post Starbright.
Also like to add that with no need for P3, will SAVE a substantial amount of cash, which is equally just as important to raising cash, if not more important.
Speed to market, could be much faster. So not only Avacta could be cheaper to progress in trial, saving circa +/- £500m in dilution to fund P3, but speed also. An exciting proposition to any acquirer and they will be looking at these metrics when calculating value.
Do I want Avacta singing from the roof tops? If i want £3 to sell then yes.
If i want them to remain independent for as long as possible while the pipeline develops behind AVA6K and Affixell in the wings. Taking a longer view to allow these other opportunities is the key to realising bigger valuations.
The only caveat is if they need further fund raises for P2, then its obv much better for current SH for SP to be sat much higher than currently.
IMO, this is just a waiting game and in some circumstances, being still low MCAP might even allow those to remain invested (Having not sold for a small profit)
This will be a ride, and has been a ride, how long can you hold on is the question everyone needs to work out for themselves.
I personally think there might be a leak... SP goes ballistic and the end result ends up being something like 100% (for instance) premium to previous days SP.
So, the news isnt 1200% increase in one day... significant yes... but the city is leaky... and its a small cap.
PL, imagine it did take 10 years... and we got 1000%... 100% profit per year.
Pretty decent still right? Might not be what everyone wants... and expects... but fantastic return by any "PI" investment standards.
Ill wait the BO...
Because I'm young to have time on my hands.
Also, I am happy with the current "timeframe" that the company has stated, EVEN if it extends further.
Its a simple thing, wait for P1a to conclude. Then reevaluate... but.. as long as Avacta progress... the value inflections become stronger, regardless of the SP.
We can sit at £300m all the way till we announce sales of $1bn... then it goes pop.
I'm here for alot more than £2.. If the science works the what's it matter that the market doesn't value Avacta appropriately right this second? It will happen eventually and nobody can predict when.
If i wanted guaranteed timelines, I wouldn't be invested in Life Science Bio techs.
Timelines are not important if your investment window is longer than 2 days or 10% gain. The only reason you need timelines is to tick of progress periods.
When Avacta get better quality investors who INVEST....for the long term... the better.
Wyn, your looking when the next £2 will be here, LTH Investors couldn't care less if it comes tomorrow, I'm still not selling. Ill wait years to gain double digits £ if needed.
100%++ gain per year averaged?? Yes please...
Part of my own understanding based on JT post.
A primary treatment might have much better Therapeutic index levels and safety profile than straight dox, im sure the studies show this.
The crunch i can see in this, when improving TI for dox (Yet to be seen in 6K) and safety profile does the gap between a primary treatment and secondary (Dox) close?
If it closes significantly then it could, when trialed against primary treatment replace standard care currently in use. This would massively increase the market. 1 drug does all?
One of the main things i could see in not using standard dox is its such poor safety index and limited dose schedules. If 6K in general, greatly improve both of these can only put pressure on primary treatments.
The only limiting factor would be FAP rich tumors, but still could stand.
I find this a really encouraging thought.
JT,
2 questions which might not be answerable but maybe thought provoking.
1. Why do the primary treatments fail and then use dox?
2. Is dox the hail mary? It might work where others fail? currently used in limited use due to the tox? If Dox can work where others failed, reducing the tox and negative effects... why couldnt then 6K replace the primary treatments in the first place?
I think ur off the mark... massively.
Delay? Doubt it, nobody owns the Dox market.
Change their agenda? Sure... by way of acquiring Avacta for themselves at the cheapest price without a bidding war.
If BB want control, then what better way to control the whole Dox market that basically gets replaced overnight for STS through Orphan drug status and protected by the FDA for 7 years. Solely owned by the acquirer!!! Now thats a scoop for any BB.... not delay and try and block so they can keep SHARING a generic dox drug market.
Good grief....Get a grip.
Nursesteve, Wikipedia but helpful to understand what you're asking
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therapeutic_index
This news is very welcome.
Most were expecting a dose regime set with recruitment to start following.
What we got is dose set and its started already and 5 x US set up and recruiting. Much more progress than expected and I think expected timeframes for completion should be in the current region.
Incredibly exciting period now.
MTD's are quite important.
You dont want to create a drug... that says take 1 tablet for a headache at current dose set at 200mg...that runs for years.
Then someone else does a trial and works out you can now take 2 tablets for 200mg.
Regulators dont want big pharma to confuse dose regimes, plus sell more tablets for double the profit.
Although for some they might need 200mg... in some special cases they might need to go to 400mg for effective treatment. With an MTD, they would have that option.
Get the dose set right in the first place, although FDA seem to be moving away from MTD and more towards Dose optimization.
There are set application dates for PRIME.
We might be tied into these being approved during an approval "window"
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/regulatory-procedural-guideline/prime-eligibility-requests-2023-deadlines-submission-timetable-assessment_en.pdf
Simple as the facts present to us is we have a scientist CEO who is running the company like a Ltd instead of PLC when not asking for cash.
As he’s not selling shares or hitting targets, his focus is on the science, not the SP or making personal wealth.
We don’t want pump, but managed news updates and progress.
Whilst we hold significant percent of the company, AS would do well to improve relationships with shareholders until II are on board. Hard part for the CEO is converting holdings from PI to II and since no II seem to be arriving, he’s stuck with us.
List of grievances since £55m Heights raise.
Crumbs from OO and no additional uplift for PI’s
PI’s declined invite to SD
“No new material”
Nothing from launch, no talks, no updates zilch
Key appointments (COO) not disclosed
No layman’s presentation on SD for PI’s none technical
Missing timeframes without notice
Lack of clarity on P1a (started / not started wording)
Potentially spending rest of HC capital on further Dx M&A without funding secured for Tx. (Big FU to PI’s and my biggest gripe)
Zero info on licence deal / BB interest
Willingly letting SP decline without comment or action.
Even just, where the hell are we with P1a progress?
11 weeks in news rich period without a word. We are all singing in unison here, he’s at risk of losing confidence and needs to step up and get better advice.
I’m hoping FDA breakthrough and DE dose set / DE starting is the next RNS and it can’t come soon enough.
A typical example of changes to Comms.
RNS For new CSO https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AVCT/appointment-of-chief-scientific-officer-qheu6lijc7xxty7.html
But no RNS for 2 new Key COO Appointments https://avacta.com/therapeutics/therapeutics-team/
Karen Harrison & Craig Slater