Member Info for netcurtains

I dont really see what the problem is. They say 29p but current price is 16.35p - that gap is pretty normal for a Broker Note. As SBTX nears that 29p the broker then normally does a revised note to some new higher target....

I cant see what the problem is..... The details are pretty much meaningless as nearly all FTSE100 broker notes are all based on bunkum never mind an AIM note.

I think 29p is a great target to aim for as a first stop..... I probably would have penned that number myself (perhaps low 30s but similar)..

Cheers Net.

Apologies bazza..... I didnt get this note thing. What did it say and why was it wrong?

Thanks

Cheers Net.

Zenakine ticks these boxes

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/france-cosmetic-chemicals-market-insights-comprehensive-zkadc/

Can SBTX wait a year or so until all the major global cosmetic companies have spent millions promoting their new skin care products that use Zenakine.

Then

Put on the market (possibly via Superdrug) their own skin care cosmetics based on probiotic (zenakine tech) getting all the million pound marketing for FREE...

Thus possibly making another £5M profit on top of multi-million royalties from Croda?

Is this a possibility or would an NDA normally stop this as acting in bad faith?

I thnk we have to assume there will be ZERO money from Croda in the August accounts (or next to zero)

so anything higher than that I will take as a good sign. I say that because a "success" as an ingredient starts at about £1M annual sales... That is £250K per quarter. So if we get 10% of a normal "success" that would be £25K.......

Anything significantly more than £25K is a good sign anything less probably has no meaning one way or the other..

Thanks AquaeSulis01

I also gave it various parameters for royalties, PE rations and market caps....

In summary "IF" SBTX can get £3M royalties from Zenakine (that is not too optimistic) and say £500K from Superdrug and the other bits and bobs, SBTX should have a market cap of £110M or a share price of about 40p ...... "IF" Croda have had a great launch we should see a massive rise in share price soon...

Bigpunt: Copilot says this:

That’s a tricky spot, Netcurtains — and you’re absolutely right to look at the intangibles line for clues. But here’s the rub:

🔒 NDA + Accounting = Limited Transparency

Because SBTX and Croda signed an NDA, the specific royalty terms (rates, forecasts, thresholds) are confidential and won’t appear in public filings.

Even though Zenakine™ is launched and generating sales, accounting rules still treat future royalties as contingent income — not something that can be capitalised unless there's a contractual right to receive fixed payments.

📊 What Might Show Up in Intangibles

If SBTX incurred development costs or acquired IP rights related to Zenakine, those could be capitalised as intangible assets.

But the value of expected royalties from Croda’s sales won’t be listed unless they’re contractually guaranteed — which they’re not, per the tiered royalty structure disclosed2.

🧠 How Analysts Might Read Between the Lines

They’ll look at Zenakine’s launch success, Croda’s marketing push, and clinical data to estimate uptake.

Then they’ll model tiered royalty flows based on projected global sales — even if the balance sheet stays silent.

So while the intangibles line won’t give you the number you’re hunting for, it’s still a breadcrumb.

Thanks for your input. It is sort of what I expected but I'm not 100% sure I agree with it all..... Words are such slippery things..... Lets see how it all works out...

Cheers Net.

Thatks with keeping it short.

a) I agree that most of the NEW intangible value will not be CRODA deal (not sure I agree 100% - about 75%)....

b) I disagree that figures are wrong... They are the Wall Street Journal figures for the past 5 years..

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/UK/XLON/SBTX/financials/annual/balance-sheet

(they are not my figures)

Mol42: you've written a lot of words - thank you for taking the time...

However I am in IT (web dev) - I'm a very simple soul... 1 + 1 = 2 type thiing.

I'm afraid what you have written, as nice as it seems to be, I dont understand any of it.

Sorry....

Are you saying in a very long winded type academic way that CRODAY potential royalties are not currently in our intangible assets? Wouldn't that be kind of illegal not to have them ? I thought if we signed an agreement with CRODA X years ago the accounts need to put something in for the MINIMUM worth for what that agreement might be - in the intangible assets.

Jansy: These intangibles were set BEFORE the Zenakine launch and BEFORE superdrug deal. ChatGPT says SBTX only have to change them if the royalties are LESS than expected... So if they are greater, ALAS, we might not see an update at the end of august (it depends on lots of legal stuff I could not quite understand)...... So its not as useful as I originally hoped.

SBTX did update the intangibles in 2024 from 700K to 3.4M so that is a big jump.... So perhaps there will be another big jump.. I'm hoping so...

ChatGPT estimating ZENAKINE Royalties based on Intangible figure of £3.4M

Estimating Annual Royalties from £3.4M Intangible

We’ll use the same logic as before, treating the £3.4M as the net present value (NPV) of expected future royalties.

🧮 Scenario A: Straight-line over 5 years (no discounting)

£3.4M ÷ 5 = £680,000 per year

🧮 Scenario B: Straight-line over 7 years (no discounting)

£3.4M ÷ 7 = £485,714 per year

🧮 Scenario C: Discounted at 10% over 5 years

✅ Summary Table

Scenario Assumptions Est. Annual Royalty

A 5-year, no discount £680k

B 7-year, no discount £486k

C 5-year, 10% discount rate £897k

D 7-year, 10% discount rate £663k

🎯 Conclusion

Based on £3.4M as the NPV of future royalties:

Realistic annual royalties are likely in the £650k–£900k range, depending on term length and discounting.

This figure could increase if Zenakine sales outperform expectations or the royalty period extends.

Let me know if you’d like a breakeven Zenakine sales level needed to reach that royalty!

All we can say for 100% certain is:

a) The price is not going up..... Its stuck.

b) There is loads of positive stuff out there about SBTX, Zenakine and Superdrug.

c) We have 500K transactions regularly but we get no RNS saying someone has reached 3% (7,760,000 shares needed - thats a lot of shares)

d) So Croda or AN other do not have 3% ....

e) I came in last year at 19p... If you take into account the float, the market cap is still the same eg pre-float 19p - this means SBTX is still a Schrodinger cat stock - it could be dead or it could be alive. We just dont know..

f) Hence the loads of messages - in a weird kind of way we are all "excited" by the mystery of it all. "What the hell is going on" type feeling.

As I said on the intangibles thread currently SBTX are valuing (at best) Zenakine as making £500K per year (eg intangibles of £3.5M)... My view we might not get broker upgrades but at some point they will have to upgrade the intangibles value if Zenakine and Superdrug deals become worth significantly more than £500K profit per year....

In 2024 SBTX increased their intangible assts from 700K to 3.4M (which is a massive rise) - I'm guessing that is mainly due to the CRODA deal...... If that is so, it appears that SBTX must have originally expected to make £500K a year out of Zenakine Tech...

NOW THAT ZENAKINE IS LAUNCHED .........do you think we SHOULD (legally) see an UPDATE in the INTANGLES in our august update and if so by how much?

Cliostock: I dont see how a 20 year deal is really worth the paper its written on... CRODA could simply use a different Lysate from some other medics (There are lots around the world doing this)..... So they might have a 20 year deal but that does not mean they will actually make any more than a year or twos worth..... SBTX will have to keep coming up with new versions - Cosmetics are like Apple iPhones - each year there is something new... Zenakine will be old in a year or two unless the science bods keep coming up with good enhancements..... I cant see CRODA buying SBTX but I can see SBTX being worth £3 a share PROVIDED they really go it science and research wise - spend the cash.... And get GOOD GOVERNMENT GRANTS to help...

Thecontender: If you are right then surely we all should be buying the shares like mad? If the bid is 25p that would give us 68% profit....... The million dollar question is why are shareholders or potential shareholders not buying SBTX by the bucket load.......

You're all being insanely simplistic. If you look at the market there are loads of other people involved in this skin brain axis, lysate market. For SBTX to KEEP their corda contract longer than a couple of years they will have to plough money into research. CRODA gain by not bidding for SBTX.... It puts pressure on SBTX to come up with Zenakine MARK II and III etc..... Nothing is forever...

OK - on the other hand NIOX GROUP -( the asthma company) has a PE ratio of about 100 and a market cap of nearly £300M....... That type of valuation will send SBTX hare price through the roof.

You will note there recent SINGER Valuation report (2023) has been beaten by 25% (at least)....

I really think SBTX is in with a chance of the "BIG ONE".....

Well done ASHMAN and all concerned - if you can pull this off - hats off to you - its looking good!

OK if you have the entire AIM market in a spreadsheet and one of the columns is PE ratio and another is Dividend you will note, once an AIM company starts making a profit and giving a small dividend (1% to 3% yield range) they often have PE ratios in the mid 20s and 30s.... A typical example would be Tristel Plc..

https://tristel.com/ (basically they are in the medical stuff in bottles market - not too dissimilar to SBTX - in that very basic sense).

Its makes about £6M and has market cap of £200M

So if we make £2M - so 1/3rd of £200M is £66M market cap - this would be a share price of 25p

So can we make £2M on the back of Zenakine. That is the million dollar question...