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Of course, the NPV of the current profit levels of profit diminishes with time, but likewise the revenues & profits should increase by the same level at worst, and hopefully both profits & revenues grow in real terms.
Then the only consideration is the payback period after taking into consideration the servicing of the debt.
Would rather see both rise.:)
Yeah bought all those unloved stocks in the last year. Sick of fund managers not managing, but following like sheep. All showing healthy returns apart from PHNX (breaking even) and UNLRV (-13% even with dividends). I remember now the day i bought both BATS and ULVR. ULVR was supposed to be the steady Eddie, drawing down 3.5% divi a year. BAT was the riskier one with 8% yield. Went 75%/ 25% in favour of ULVR :( Still they can't all be winners.
Thanks Baff. I choose to feel bad about it it today as lost a net 1.5% on GSK & Unilever. Thank god for BATS (and SSE, LGEN AV & PHNX) :)
Now have I got a nasty suspicious mind (actually I know - I do), or is the something in the timing of the release of this deal being on the Saturday before MLK day (a public holiday in the USA). Puts the whole continent on the back foot & playing catch up doesn't it?.....Or is that just me?
Maybe the real action will be tomorrow.
Actually Sher-lock x5 revenue & fast heading to x4.
Margin something like 25%. It is a good acquisition for someone, but Unilever can't afford to take on the debt.
We can all see that, why can't they. Who is their FD anyway? He needs kicking too. How could he recommend this?
I never fail to be shocked by market reaction to virtually any news.
The only thing we know for sure is that GSK value this bit at over £50B. Given that this is the smaller piece of the GSK pie why is the MV still languishing @ £85B for the whole company?
Secondly, ULVR is at best "in the running" as a potential purchaser. Now that the game is on I don't see them as even second favorites to land the prize. Which makes their 7% drop today all the more remarkable, given that it's based on something that likely won't happen.
I'm invested in both. Was surprised to see that my initial investment in ULVR was 20% more than GSK & now GSK is worth 20% more than my ULVR.
I may be wrong, but I understand that Jope gets paid in tanker loads of vaseline rather than cash.
So the targets price is up by less than 4% & this has been hit by 8%.
Thanks Dope. Why don't you stick to what your good at?
Difference between my "profits" on GSK & "losses" on Unilever - About £20 profit so far. And i don't have small numbers of of either. Cheers Dope.
Hope to see more interest from other sources this week.
Yeah Noody - I too hold both in similar values - ULVR has been my do of the last year & GSK one of my brightest stars.
I'm hoping, and think likely that it is not a done deal - as you say very good for GSK, but not so for ULVR share price. Hopefully other bidders will be crawling out of the woodwork in the coming weeks to gazump anything Unilever can put together.
Then we'll see the rise in GSK without a similar drop in ULVR (I'm not a big believer in synergies ever coming to full fruition).
Robleo. It didn't & doesn't feel like a joke to me. If it were surely it would have contained at least a :). You say that everyone else knew it was a joke. I haven't seen any evidence of that.
Those were very harsh words SD used. There will be no apology from me. If there is any apologising to be done it should start with SD.
I'm trying to get my head around the value of GSK. Only been in these a year, so already showing a very healthy paper profit.
IF the Consumer Healthcare business were to go for £70b & we own 68% of that = £47b. So shall we say £9/share?
That (on 2020 results) was approx 30% of turnover & 25% profits (£2,213m / 8,906m), what does that make the full value of GSK in total?). £120B?? £24/ share?? Not expecting to see that level just yet, but once the American vultures start circling that would surely be achievable. Quite excited for tomorrow morning. Any other views? am I miles out?
SD235
Halfwit, moron , prick, muppet.
Understand that I'm not predicting anything. Certainly not deramping. As I've said several times LGEN is my largest holding by far & is only going to get bigger.
Your outburst is not acceptable.
Hoping for (but not really expecting) a dip below 2.90 before the run up to results, so that I can add to my position. Dividends from a few others due in the coming weeks which will all be going here.
Is hoping for £2.90 greedy?
It's a dilemma. I've traded these time after time in the last year, and was always looking for these levels to exit & move on.
The problem is - what do you replace them with. Love LGEN, but already stupidly overweight there. maybe if they were back at 2.85? Tobacco, Oil, Miners - already exposed & consider them riskier. Maybe Persimmon. We're always going to need those boxes to live in.
Maybe sitting tight while March is the best option?
Hi Karv
Don't mean to be disrespectful, but WTF is this?
Thanks for you insightful post Lomo. Now p...off and bother someone else.
This share will serve you well. SP growth, dividend growth, growing market. What's not to love.
Yes the price hasn't risen in 2 years you've been in, but you've had 35p divi, which continued unabated when everyone else was slashing their payments.
My dividends from all my other investments goes here. I consider it my safest investment.
Hi Paul - isn't it all gambling to an extent. None of us can see into the future.
The big difference is with this there is no finishing line, so you can cash in whenever you are winning. You can also increase your stake when you're on a winner. They all come back eventually (actually Aviva may be a bad example there, but there have been many many opportunities to get out).
And importantly don't be playing with cash you're going to need anytime soon. I for one do not want to be in a position where I need to sell to raise funds.
Stick to the big blue chips & out of the casinos. Whatever you do, use your head & not your heart when making investment decisions.
Hi Jed.
As mentioned in my post, the trading ones I hold ATM were purchased back in October @ £3.93 odd, so I'd be adding to that at anything below £3.90, and then again at £3.85 and £3.80.
Price today is £4.02 so tempted to ditch, but the problem is we are so close to the new year now, may be worth waiting & hoping for a new year rally. (any views from anyone there). As I said - I was greedy when the results were published & disappointed that there wasn't more of a surge then.
It's by no means a foolproof strategy - you need to hold your nerve when the price continues to drop - as it did in the summer, and you need cash available.
Robleo - as for it being worth it - I'm in a fortunate position of having sold properties I previously rented, so do have a lager than average pile of cash to play with. I'm aiming to beat the return I'd have made from those properties, including the capital appreciation. Can't really do that by just relying on dividends. Stamp duty is a consideration. Dealing fees are irrelevant. So for me it's worth it, but appreciate for many it wouldn't be worth the effort.
I'm a numbers guy, and do gain some satisfaction from it too.
Mind you - Mrs Nellys tax return is going to be a *****. :) (all on her account)
All IMHO, DYOR blah blah blah.
GLA
Hi Gary. Can't be sure about Porsche, but he's never said anything to suggest otherwise. I've had a quick look at his posts. He doesn't have a good word to say about anything.
You are right about AV. being a dividend stock, but personally I have a core holding, and trade the range, adding nearly 40% to my core holding in the last 6 months or so by trading maybe a dozen times. Buy a fixed value (25% of my core) & sell just enough to re-coup my cash when the price is up 2-3%. If the price drops further I just buy more. Guess i'm lucky to be able to do that. Normally turn-around is less than a week, but I was holding more than I was comfortable with in the summer when the price went below £3.80, and again still holding some I bought mid October @ £3.93. (Got greedy there - didn't sell when the November results were published - lesson learned). No matter.
Of course - there'll be a chunk of CGT to pay. (but that's a good thing right?).
And Porsche just tells us to buy the US bubble & wait for the crash :). And take the exchange rate risk too.
Good luck all
Hey Porsche - so nice to here from you.
Still working for me. Bought Aviva omicron day, sold the middle of last week for 3% profit. Used all the sale proceeds to buy LGEN the same day, which I sold yesterday for a further 3% profit. Over 6% in 11days. Virtually zero risk (i'm happy to hold those companies forever if need be).
Just accept that if you're not a halfwit you can make money in any market. You don't need to buy the US bubble & hope for the best.