Member Info for neil9327

Re: "Alkaid could have any number of co*ck ups."
Sure. But because Alkaid is being drilled from gravel pads next to the haul road, there is no time pressure to resolve problems. All the problems the company has had in the past with drilling, have impacted progress only because of the limited time of the few weeks of the winter drilling schedule.

Re: "Contingent Resources are not reserves, so until its flowing the it aint going..."
There have been successful flow tests on all the intervals being targeted, apart from the SMD. You may wish to bet on the possibility that subsequent tests won't flow, but I wouldn't. Why would they not flow too?

Charlotte, the oil price is down 5% this morning. FTSE 100 is down 2%. PANR is UP. Nothing is being "sold down".

Indeed this is an open question. It must be tempting for Bob and Jay to consider carrying on at Pantheon, perhaps in a part-time role (chairman, non-exec director etc), so they can start to enjoy a well-earned retirement, and have the company convert into a production company. It would allow much greater profits to be generated from the assets, and would mean the company wouldn't have to sell to a major. The downside could be perhaps that it could take longer to generate a return for shareholders, as well as perhaps a higher cost of borrowing to begin production. And business/technical risks associated with production.
Another poster here or the other place said Pantheon could turn into a Gulf Keystone Petroleum mark 2.

Also take a look at Southern Energy SOUC.L (not to be confused with SSE.L). In the next couple of months they'll have three production wells coming on stream, increasing their output to around 5000 boepd. Market cap of only £34MM, so will be a P/E of around 2.

FYI direct link to my Reddit comment below: My 10 reasons why I think Pantheon is undervalued in the market at the moment, and why this causes it to be a good investment:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/u275su/pikka_comparison_is_it_31_per_barrel/i5dsner/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

I've discussed further with Telemachus on the Reddit thread, and the upshot of this is that while my analysis re the flow rates is probably correct, or correct-ish, the matter of capital costs and many other factors are large unknowns to a non-petroleum engineer, and render the usefulness of the analysis as far less valuable.

I've written up my amended thoughts in a new post on the Reddit thread, under: "More thoughts (please excuse me if I appear to ramble on a bit):"

In summary I think the company is on the balance of probabilities a very good investment with a large potential upside, but that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding what that value is, seen from the eyes of the non-expert.

Darcon on the "other place" has added my original question about the flow rates to the list of questions to go to management for the webinar - thanks!

I've also put into words my thoughts, for what they are worth, as to the reasons why Pantheon is undervalued, and how it is really this undervaluation that underpins the quality of the investment. This is in the Reddit post on the same thread, starting "What makes Pantheon a good investment?". Feel free to criticise and abuse :)

Thanks Scot. My A lpha D elta V ictor F oxtrot N ovember username is neil9327b

Hi Scott, Just me posting. I put the "detail" post on Reddit, and this "chat" post on LSE.

I just replied to my own post (starting with "Scott on LSE comments") with some details about Pikka's $3 billion capital expense. I think this level of expense might well be able to be avoided at Alkaid, but perhaps not at Talitha or Theta West?

Thanks for the tip re Telemachus content on Reddit. Some good detail there.

In most of the valuations of our assets I've seen online, the figure of $3.1/barrel has been used frequently. This comes from the 2017 sale price of the Pikka oilfield.
What I have not seen is any explanation of a basis of comparison other than that both are north slope oilfields. Should we apply any offset to cater for any differences between Pikka and us?
I've done an analysis of this in regard to differences in flow rates between the two fields (Pikka flow rates are much greater than ours), and have arrived at a lower figure per barrel of around $1.1/barrel.
I've put my analysis in the following Reddit post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PantheonResourcesPANR/comments/u275su/pikka_comparison_is_it_31_per_barrel/
I'd be interested to have your opinions on it.
Basically the slower flow rates mean that to get the same amount of oil out of the ground in the same amount of time as Pikka, more money needs to be spend on digging more wells, which costs more, leading to less money being available to have purchased the oil field in the first place.

Of course flow rates are far from being the only factor that determine the number. The closeness of Pantheon's assets to the dalton highway reduce cost, and allow faster building of required infrastructure, meaning oil is output sooner. Both these increase the value of the asset. But by how much?
And of course the oil price has gone up.
Has management given any indication of whether a 1:1 read across is valid? I can see that they have mentioned the $3.1 figure in regard to Pikka, but I don't think they have explicitly said it can be read across to us. I wonder whether this is something they could talk about in the up-coming webinar?
Thanks

Where did you get the $1.4 billion figure from please?
I can see that the owner of the Cambo oil field, Siccar Point Energy, has been purchased for $1.5 billion. But they own other assets so it is not clear how much of this amount can be attributed to cambo.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/08/cambo-oilfield-development-could-be-back-on-after-takeover

Happy birthday, by the way :)

In theory if the investment for which the placement is done is value-accretive, then the share price should not drop from today's close.

Placing on the PrimaryBid platform - 30p

Both Jay and Bob looked tired. Which shows how hard they must have been working out there in northern Alaska, and an honest indicator of their commitment and determination to make a success of these projects.
For that reason (in addition to the valid reasons they have stated) I think it was right for them to stop where they did, and not go on to try and test the Theta West UBFF or the Talitha SMD.
I would want them to take a couple of week's holiday at least before getting stuck into planning the webinar, and planning the summer's Alkaid drilling, because rested they will do a better job (as an investor this is a great investment of two weeks of time here at the very least).
I'm very bullish on this investment, and it remains my largest single-company holding.

All good Scot.
One thing I'd like to know, is when does the company anticipate selling the company (presumably to an oil major)? I guess not before next winter's drilling season, but will we have to wait many months beyond this?

@MindBender That probably explains most activity.
In my case I got up at 8am on the day of the Theta West result, saw it was only 5% up at around 135p, and decided there was a chance the traders involved didn't have PANR specific knowledge and were trading only the fact of oil found to be flowing (that they didn't know the significance of Theta West. So I bought 70,000 shares before 9am.
Then to my chagrin as the day went on, the price didn't rise much when PANR experts came onstream.
By the following morning the price was down a couple of percent, so I sold 45,000 at a modest loss.

But then along came the last few days of down 25% or so. The last straw was this lunchtime today when it dropped to 110p - and I bought 38500.

Overall a big loss. But its the long term prize I'm interested in, which is well north of the company's £800M market cap.

I would like to see a realistic estimate of the timeliness over the next x years from now to the sale of the company. How long are we going to be waiting until we get our return on our initial investments.

"We were all led to believe" is not the best way to choose your investment decisions. You need to do your own research.
Saying that, I think it was reasonable to expect a larger increase in the share price with today's news, given that Theta West is much larger than the other intervals in our portfolio. The only explanation I have is that because the Theta West interval being tested, the BFF, was already successfully tested at the (admittedly smaller) Talitha location a few weeks ago, the market thought it much less likely to fail to flow at Theta West. Hence the relatively small share price reaction.

The bigger question is why is the market cap of the company still well below our expectations? With over circa 2 billion barrels of oil now shown to be moveable, and with a minimum price of $3.1/barrel (from the 2017 Pikka purchase by Oil Search), hence $6.2 billion, why is the market cap of the company only a quarter of this ($1.58 billion)?
I don't know the answer to that.
Maybe now that we know that Theta West BFF flows, it calls into question what comes next. Yes we'll drill Alkaid in the summer, but that's not the real question. The real question is what needs to be done to formally certify Theta West etc as "reserves" such that the (risk averse) oil majors at least will be satisfied enough to purchase them? I don't think the company has given any indication of how long this process will take to complete, nor what are the costs, processes, and risks involved with this. And then once the reserves are certified, how long will it take the company to find a buyer? It might not be as easy as all that due to the size of the reserves limiting the number of parties who would be able to afford to buy it.
In other words, there still remain several unknowns at this stage, and perhaps that is causing the share price to be 25% of what it ought to be.
If I was an oil investment expert I could probably answer these questions. But I and many other current investors at the moment are basically amateurs.

This looks like a promising company viable. I too bought in, a total of 160,000 shares over the past three days after coming across the company quite by chance earlier this week. Ticks all the boxes of rapid non-nonsense monetization of their assets, under-the-radar hence undervalued, simple, and apparently professional management. The CEO has lost weight over the past two years and looks a lot healthier, which is a very good indicator of his attitude, ambition, and positive state of mind.

what was the other short-term opportunity, out of interest?

It's our Scotty in disguise..