PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
"We were all led to believe" is not the best way to choose your investment decisions. You need to do your own research.
Saying that, I think it was reasonable to expect a larger increase in the share price with today's news, given that Theta West is much larger than the other intervals in our portfolio. The only explanation I have is that because the Theta West interval being tested, the BFF, was already successfully tested at the (admittedly smaller) Talitha location a few weeks ago, the market thought it much less likely to fail to flow at Theta West. Hence the relatively small share price reaction.
The bigger question is why is the market cap of the company still well below our expectations? With over circa 2 billion barrels of oil now shown to be moveable, and with a minimum price of $3.1/barrel (from the 2017 Pikka purchase by Oil Search), hence $6.2 billion, why is the market cap of the company only a quarter of this ($1.58 billion)?
I don't know the answer to that.
Maybe now that we know that Theta West BFF flows, it calls into question what comes next. Yes we'll drill Alkaid in the summer, but that's not the real question. The real question is what needs to be done to formally certify Theta West etc as "reserves" such that the (risk averse) oil majors at least will be satisfied enough to purchase them? I don't think the company has given any indication of how long this process will take to complete, nor what are the costs, processes, and risks involved with this. And then once the reserves are certified, how long will it take the company to find a buyer? It might not be as easy as all that due to the size of the reserves limiting the number of parties who would be able to afford to buy it.
In other words, there still remain several unknowns at this stage, and perhaps that is causing the share price to be 25% of what it ought to be.
If I was an oil investment expert I could probably answer these questions. But I and many other current investors at the moment are basically amateurs.
This looks like a promising company viable. I too bought in, a total of 160,000 shares over the past three days after coming across the company quite by chance earlier this week. Ticks all the boxes of rapid non-nonsense monetization of their assets, under-the-radar hence undervalued, simple, and apparently professional management. The CEO has lost weight over the past two years and looks a lot healthier, which is a very good indicator of his attitude, ambition, and positive state of mind.
So I guess the market doesn't think it is an oil plume then, judging by the lack of advancement in the price today.
Here's a left-field thought: Has anyone thought about jumping onto an intercontinental flight that over-flies Alaska? e.g. as I type I can see on FlightRadar24 that KAL9090 from JFK to Seoul in South Korea passed over around 100 miles north of Prudhoe Bay an hour ago. Had it not been cloudy today the Theta West site would have been visible in the distance, with any significant plume visible from the left-hand side of the aircraft. If the plane had satellite internet, you could place a trade there and then :)
I don't see the problem with the board having a bad vibe etc - If it puts off potential shareholders then all the better, as it makes entry cheaper for the rest of us = a better return on investment. So do please be rude to me, and I'll buy a bit cheaper on Monday :)
All true, but those "frustrated investors" are looking at the possibility of placing some cheaper extra ingredients into the oven if they can't get Heron producing this year, potentially requiring a discount fund-raise in the next 12 months for cashflow reasons.
The way I see it, is that sentiment on social media (such as this site) has the ability to affect the share price, but only in the absence of real events/news. And the way I think about chat on here and the other place is that it is like an iceberg - people posting here are the portion above the water line, but the majority of the market participants are underwater, unseen, and prone to quite unpredicted actions and activity.
@Scot Thanks. You you write well, cogently and clearly too.
Watching the comic sketch, the lesson I believe it is suggesting is that when you reserve an item (oil testing kit, rental car), it might not be available.
Of course I agree with this.
This may be the explanation for the (apparent) lack of the second test kit, or it may not be - I don't know, and see no point in speculating.
I'm sure management will update us in due course.
Re "I think as mentioned previously they ran a slide rule over it and made a cost based call to demob and use the work over rig".
Indeed.
By having only one test rig it would seem they increased the risk of not being able to complete the test of Talitha SMD this season. All other things being equal this will reduce the company valuation if this comes to pass.
If the risk adjusted loss of value is greater than the cost of having the extra kit, then I would suggest they took the wrong decision. But of course I can't say that definitively because I don't know what were the costs, or indeed the availability of that kit (if the additional kit was simply not available then no amount of cash would fix this).
Of course if they are able to access ALL of the SMD from Alkaid this summer then in theory there should be no loss of value at all.
I wouldn't say he is a narcissit. He just has a sole focus is on presenting PANR in the best possible light, to try and keep the share price up. If he were to admit that he had made a mistake in his statement re 2 sets of testing kits, then he knows that the effect of this might be to reduce the share price a little because people will think he might be wrong in other areas too (given that he only ever gives a positive spin on the company).
Re Canaccord's comment: "We understand that the timetable should allow the testing phase of the BFF at Theta West to commence around mid March providing two, or perhaps three weeks to complete the testing programme"
If the test equipment is being moved from Talitha over to Theta West "with operations expected to commence next week" according to the RNS, this would suggest would it not that Theta West testing is now going to be done a week or two ahead of schedule (as next week is sooner than the middle of March)?
If this is the case, then given that the company will have assigned sufficient time in the planned schedule to test Theta West, then does it not suggest that there should probably, rather than just possibly, be enough time to go back and start testing the Talitha SMD? However I don't know how much time will be needed to fix the blockage before testing proper can begin.
curiouserandcuriouser: True - but that's just doing the same thing to another hapless trader ;)
Jollifant: I've only sold this position - I still have another 700,000 shares with another broker. The reason I sold the 100,000 today is that I didn't understand quite how the direct market access process works - because my order didn't show up on the level 2 at the time. So I sold now that I'm not in a hurry to do so, so that I'll have that liquidity ready to deploy when I need it).
OK which one of you lot is responsible for this lol:
I put a sell order on the order book for my 100,000 MATD shares at 3.94 pence earlier today, and went out for lunch. When I got back, the price had risen a bit, and 99,999 of them had traded at that price (at 14:00), leaving one left.
Why?!?
Now I've got this single share worth 4p cluttering up my portfolio window, and since it will cost me three quid to sell it, I predict it will be there till the end of time!
Can I tell my brokerage to just bin it?
It had had a bit of a run up over the past few weeks, so some consolidation is to be expected. If it's any consolation I bought £40K's worth three days ago, and have seen a 10% drop since - which I'm perfectly happy with because they'll go back up once the company starts drilling.
If Theta West should fail, then in my opinion the share price is bound to fall significantly in the short term. But over the following months it will return to its current value or higher, particularly once Alkaid is drilled and put on production over the summer.