Member Info for nbe22

Oh dear. They laid my missus off earlier this year, and now this!

"SMT will never day trade their holdings, this is not ARKK. "

Love that as a quote. I lol'd but it's so true. ARKK was indeed day trading and losing every bet all through 2022; scary to watch.

Best time to buy IT's like this is when they're on discount.

Take a look at HVPE as well - massive discount on a well managed and diverse private equity fund.

Noticed that TSLA is a top 3 holding in SMT again. They have been buying it at the low prices of late.

Tell that to the people whose pensions invested in government bonds which have crashed harder this year than equities.

Compare Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% to the 100% product. And people would buy the 20% because it was considered highly defensive...

Exactly. Though do consider MNTM if you want higher SpaceX exposure than SMT has. SpaceX alone could be valued in the trillions in less than 20 years.

So basically you hate everything that SMT invests in - so why are you here? Why do you hold it?

Tesla is about more than just cars. They've grown to where they are right now just on the back of cars. But Tesla has plenty of other opportunities - most notably in grid-scale energy storage.

I'm averaging down too.

When the recession bites and it kills off the supply-side inflation through demand destruction then they'll have no reason to keep the rates up and we'll be back down to 0% (or less!).

Invest for the next economic event, not the current one.

Indeed the comparison to the dotcom bubble and the "15 year stretch" are funny because SMT isn't tracking an index. It's an actively managed fund that picks specific stocks it thinks will grow the best.

Of course I typo'd and meant to say "*isn't* always about the managers"

The discount is always about the managers - it can be market sentiment too. Growth stock is not currently in favour. It could be another year or two before growth stocks have a turn around. In the meantime just keep the DCA going...

https://pharmaphorum.com/news/modernas-hiv-vaccine-prepped-for-trials-in-africa/

I don't see it that way? The loans were repayable over multiple decades and are on fixed low (as in 2021 low) interest rates. These rates may not be achievable again for many many years. Even if SMT cannot deploy the capital as quickly as it anticipated, it will still work out in the long-term.

I wonder how much of the 500mil gearing loans SMT has actually invested? Hopefully not too much and hopefully they're waiting for the bottom. In theory if they buy the bottom, and then wait for the market reversal, we're all going to be laughing this off as a needless panic in a few years.

The US Dollar is at a 20yr high right now which is actually boosting the SMT price right now. If it weren't for that we'd already be in the 600s for sure.

Pre-Covid era is almost irrelevant though since 70% of all US dollars that ever existed were printed in 2020 and 2021. So the entire market is in price discovery mode trying to figure out what everything is worth.

That and - SMT hasn't just sat there doing nothing for 2 years - it will have made some smart trades in that time.

I'll come back in 30 years - close to my retirement - and check how my SMT has done for me.

I think that bubble will pop the moment the recession hits - presumably in H2

I wonder what new areas SMT is looking to invest in with the >£500mil of gearing loans they obtained last year at very low interest rates?

Hydrogen & other clean energy? More biotech? Have they given any hints out yet?

They'll introduce a new central bank currency that is non-inflationary (i.e. Bitcoin style) or, has cryptographically enforced inflationary controls (i.e. Ethereum style), so that central banks hold that instead of fiat currency. Fiat currency debts can then be inflated away. It is essentially a "soft landing" way of defaulting. You haven't defaulted technically because you never promised to not inflate the currency used for repayment. The central banks have actually done studies about all of this (introducing a new currency only for use by central banks) and published white papers.