Member Info for nbe22

The solution to inflation as an investor is to simply own things that aren't cash. All these drops and corrections in recent months don't matter if your horizon is at least 5 years. Once everything has come out of the wash, you'll have rode the inflationary wave and your "things" e.g. stocks, assets should have at least matched the inflation that occurred. So at least you remain in the same position as you did before. That's already going to be better than 99% of people around you.

I prefer to get my news from my own diversified research rather than a biased TV news channel. The money spent on Sky is better spent on stocks, too.

No - does the UK get CNBC?

There is a strong possibility that today/tomorrow will be the bottom of the market.
Today being the Chinese bottom. Tomorrow being the US bottom.

What news this morning? The oil price?

Approximately 50% down since its ATH in early November. Other than the GFC, has this ever happened to SMT before? 50%!?

Don't blame SMT - blame the manipulated markets. The US Fed printed 70% of all US dollars that ever existed in the last couple years.

A lot of growth ITs are 20 to 30pc down though.

Is it a coincidence that the US Fed also owns 30% of the US bond market right now?

Isn't Moderna P/E like 10 though? It seems undervalued if anything. I dunno why people slate this holding so much. The worst SMT holding is problem Ginkgo Bioworks. In a rising interest rate environment - you don't want to be holding profitless companies like that.

Surely a joke? A placing of new shares of this amount of capital would tank the stock price and rile all existing shareholders. A loan on cheap rates and good terms can only serve to enrich the existing shareholders. If an investment company isn't there to serve existing holders then what is the point of it?

You know the discount control robot has awoken when you see:

"On 18 January 2022 the Company purchased 1,767,544 ordinary shares at a price of 1,117.64p. The shares purchased will be held in Treasury."

https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/stifel-upgrades-scottish-mortgage-after-26-slump/a2377064?ref=wealth-manager-new-latest-news-test1-list

That could just mean they haven't rebalanced their holding - for whatever reason. SMT invested very very early in Moderna remember so it is no surprise that it is now worth 10% of the portfolio.

"Nasdaq takes 14 years to get back its high in 2000"

That's because back then there was genuinely no substance behind dot com's. And it took 14 years to build genuine value, e.g. the Googles of this world. Do you think that is the same situation now? Has Covid really wiped out all value of tech firms?

And yet S&P500 is still at 4700. Market is weird.

SMT is now down approx 22% since its ATH on 5th November. By comparison the two big drops in Q1 last year were around 27% and 17%. And the Covid crash was around 30%. This crash has a longer protracted time period though, spanning 2 months - the two last year barely lasted a week or two before rotating.

Breached the 1 year EMA when it dropped below 1200

Moderna dumped yesterday. Looking at its chart it could fall a fair bit more yet. But they've started trials of new vaccines for other diseases so could be an upside waiting at some point this year.

My best performing trust last year was HVPE at 34pc. It seems like 2022 will be another good year for private equity too. Looking forward to it.

Charles Schwab's latest report spells it all out. By analysing the bond market, you can predict where the market thinks inflation is heading. Furthermore, the majority of this year's inflation actually came from the energy price inflation specifically. The energy prices won't remain elevated beyond Spring 2022 - they just can't. Energy prices are in a bubble of their own right now and it will pop.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-perspective?s=09