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Inflation will cool off throughout next year then tech/growth will rebound. Meanwhile new economic pressures will arrive that prevent raising rates too far or even to the projected rates.

Interest rates will remain below 1.25pc in US and certainly the UK for many years. So tech/growth will be fine.

1 bad month and the paper is suggesting to dump all BG funds

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/now-might-time-dump-baillie-gifford-funds/

They should have dumped Ginkgo the moment it went public. That has to be the most questionable stock SMT owns by far - and 3.1% is way too much.

It was their holdings in Tesla, Moderna and some of the Chinese tech which caused the massive SMT rally in 2020 through to about February 2021. As far as I can see, SMT rebalanced substantially in the December-January timeframe which is why it has managed to largely retain its share price this year. But yes, it looks to me like SMT will finish the year on about 10-15% YoY all being well. Not great but not terrible all considered. Just look at ARKK and compare to SMT and you will feel rather fortunate.

Mainly based on my feeling that inflation will start subsiding by Spring (due to easing supply chain backlogs) but global economic weakness will remain causing central banks to reevaluate whether they want to raise rates (at all) in 2022. Bond market will stagnate because of low 10 year yields and so money will rotate rather forcefully back into tech/growth opportunities once again.

It will be 1600+ within 4-6 months I reckon.

SSON has definitely stagnated compared to earlier this year. Not sure why as supposedly it is a portfolio of value stocks where - again supposedly - the market is rotating into?

Just dropped under the 50 day EMA. Would need to hit about 1410 to breach the 100 day EMA. And for any bears out there, the 200 day EMA is around 1320.

Choose your dip.

I personally think SMT is under-exposed to crypto. A couple small holdings in some crypto exchanges/platforms is not really what I consider a proper bet.

VC and SV is pouring cash into crypto right now. "Killer applications" (beyond speculative trading) for it are beginning to show but the way it can integrate into the future metaverse is potentially very exciting and a possible growth area. Just look at Gemini who raised 400mil recently to push their crypto platform toward metaverse.

I know metaverse is a bit cliche right now (and it is) but try not to get wrapped up in the emotions of it. Even if 30% of metaverse ideas going around at the moment turns around to be possible/delivered in the next 10 years then that is a big deal. Metaverse is also wrapped up in the whole "Web3" wave which is coming.

I'm not sure it was that interesting. It didn't have much to say other than question whether it's past gains can be replicated again in the future. To be honest, that is not really a question of SMT - it is a market wide question concerning growth stocks. My personal calculation and belief is that technology transformation is still in its infancy and that there is at least another generation - probably two - for it to run until it starts to cool off a bit or some other market usurps it (space exploration? DNA editing? f-- knows).

That's not true. They are not new shares - so it is not a dilution. They were shares being released from the treasury that were acquired during periods of discount as part of SMT's discount control policy.

As title

With that said - I don't hold any Europe-focused funds at all and probably my biggest exposure to Europe is ASML via SMT. I think Continental Europe especially is on a downward trajectory for the next decade - for starters they printed like 3x more money than anyone else and that's not good.

Never rule out the chances of the Tories royally f__k up the recovery and economy in general over the next couple years. British companies are generally cheap right now (as they have been for years now) but just like pre-Brexit there is still an air of uncertainty about things. There is a very clear lack of decisive direction in the UK govt at the moment.

Fundsmith vs SMT isn't entirely fair on Fundsmith since Fundsmith cannot use gearing and other instruments that SMT can. The reason is that SMT is an investment trust (IT) whereas Fundsmith is an open-ended mutual/unit fund (OEIC). OEIC's are more heavily regulated than investment trusts.

For a OEIC, Fundsmith is second to none. However it has a high fee (relative to SMT) and essentially all UK platforms that support OEIC's like Fundsmith charge their own fee on top (HL for example takes 0.45%) so just holding Fundsmith can typically cost you 1.4%. This is compared to SMT's 0.34% plus (approx) £10 per trade.

Living 3 to 9 months ahead of where the market is right now :thumbsup:

Market is beginning its flip back to growth in readiness for the inflation data to start ticking downwards probably by the end of the year.

Sounds like he was pushed after making stock sales of Tencent and Alibaba whilst working from home that he knew would be controversial if done in the office. He fully admits doing it.

Who's buying SMT at circa 1415?

Last few days has seen SMT trading on a premium again. Not sure why the sudden change as it had spent most of the year on a discount. I guess investors have finally realised there is only so much money to be made out of "B&M" recovery stocks