Member Info for NAV_Mike

Im keeping an open mind on the results as I think theres stuff for both bulls and bears to latch onto. Hopefully the shares going xd pretty soon will limit the downside

I know cash is tighter now but I do wonder if the buybacks have really given benefit to divi yield. $163m spent in this round and the yield is 7.8% by my calcs. Value for money? This does assume the final divi matches the interim, so 24cents for the full year

Hopefully it will provide a modicum of support but was hoping for a little better

Edit - 9.5%

Yes Im aware that the buybacks will have a long term benefit, however this benefit is currently being squashed by the EPL

What I really object to is buybacks being included in calculations of shareholder returns. Improving the yield by a few % is meaningless if we get larger capital losses.

I just think its disengenuous at the current time

Hopefully Linda will pull a rabbit out of her hat, as I think the likes of Taconic are betting against that happening

The one thing I dont want to hear tomorrow is any comment about shareholder returns that include the buyback.

The only return in my pocket I have seen is the 9.6p divi and that has been dwarfed by the capital loss.

There may be a yield and EPS benefit to be reflected in the share price in the far distant future, but the only people who have directly benefited since the last results have been the sellers of the 51m shares sold and cancelled to date

Matml / brockwl

Thank you for taking the time to respond re Cenkos

Whilst the cash position at End June was well explained, Im not exactly amused at the company failing to RNS th\t they had drawn down all the Magma facility, Poor form imho

I guess we can only make a really informed decision when we see the state of the Balance Sheet and the excess inventory/receiveables from the next results

Was that directed at me?

I was asking for a link to where Cenkos say the rest of the Magma monies have been drawn, not the end of period cash position.

Do you have a link to that please?

FFS now up to over 3% - around 23.75m shares shorted by my reckoning

Dumb question but does their shorting go through the market as normal trades? Their last two increases have been by over a million shares, and we arent really daily volume that could accomodate that

Spoke too soon....looks like the sell on news brigade have gallopped over the horizon

Im not seeing a persistent seller this morning.....I think some of the large trades labelled as sells are defo not

Look at the bid/offer immediately before the trade goes through....imho all the large trades at 5.9p should be in the buy column

Having said all that we need follow through buying....not a big splurge followed by a drift downwards again

Probably nothing but the daily backbacks are increasing in size a bit

Having dipped to 455k shares on 11.08, they rose to 500k on Friday and 550k today

Also the spend of £1.72m today was the highest since mid-April

I wonder if they are pushing back a bit more against our shorty friends? or is it case of having to?

Like I said, probably nothing

Tigar

I alluded earlier to Linda possibly being not bothered by the selling/shorting if it came from her USA 'friends'.....and yes, supression of the price would help the buyback

I detest going into tinfoil hat mode that someone has control of the price using algos and the low volume they operate in.

Given the events of last year, Im wondering if Taconic are banking on a repeat of the price tanking after the stock went xdiv. Different times yes, but a possible reason why they started ramping up their short since 01.08

50.5m shares now bought back at average VWAP of £2.48 (rounded)

Buyback operation now £3.8m in the red, and has approx 30 trading days to run

Good weekend all

Well....by close today we will have bought back 50m shares for cancellation

Has this propped up the share price, or just given a mehanism for sellers/shorters to sell into?

RD

I would normally agree but this damn EPL seems to give an endless reason to be negative

Jeez listen to me lol.....Victor Meldrew at his best

My concern re Taconic is that their position was pretty static for months....something has spurred them into life

Royal

Sorry mate lol....been a crapp week for me all round. Must admit I thought the break past 260 might be the start of a trend change but no....

This development re Noble/Taconic has knocked me back. Thats a lot of shares they can borrow as shorting collateral.

so a combination of shorters controlling a big chunk of our shares, ftse being on a really horribke run and brent backing off a massive $3.50 (lol) its become a really **** and gloomy week.

a short while back the media was all "oil market tightening rapidly" etc. now despite inventory draws, its all gloom and doom because of china. personally i think the powerful nations play this for their own agenda, with the most powerful of these being the usa not wanting high prices

how the hell do we get this noose from around our necks? is dear linda even bothered when its her mates in the states with all the control

results had bloody well be at least upbeat, even if the actual numbers will be well down

29 or 30 trading days according to my sheet

Genuine question if I may

How is it we can have pitiful volume during the day (down again on only 366k shares by lunchtime) only to see a flurry of O trades after the closng auction?

Isnt this giving a misleading picture of daily trades? Why arent they going through in tradin hours?

Well as predicted we have dipped below the average VWAP to date (2.48) so the buyback operation is now under water

Ive given my opinions on the merits of our buyback previously......Yes our EPS and yield will improve for sure, but tell me when was our share price really dictated by normal investment metrics? Traders and shorters seem like they will move the share price on low volume to wherever they want it

The other discussion is whether the buyback is best use of company money. Until they actually come up with another alternative other than reducing debt and drilling for reserves, its hard to judge. HBR doesnt really do massive newsflow and the promises M&A activity never seems to materialise

With Brent taking another dip after hours we can likely expect another gloomy day tomorrow

Closing bid price is almost exactly matching the VWAP paid to date, so we have lost the theoretic gain of £12m that was showing when we were at £2.70ish