Member Info for NAV_Mike

Im not sure, but its probable there was no rise because there was no buying in the market. Taconic got their shares off-market via a bond-exchange

Maybe we get a rise once people realise the major short has gone, but yet again, a shorter gets off scot free. They very rarely "burn" as investors would like

Only HBR could see $94 Brent and a major shorter close, yet see no upward move whatsoever

Wow.....trust me its very rare I get a thepry right, but the closure short nust confirm that the discussion started late last week re Noble/Taconic was spot on.

It explains why Taconic had the confidence to rapidly increase their short - they knew they could cover it using shares to come from the bond exchange

A couple of negatives though:

1. Only HBR could have a major 24.5m short position close and go down . Yet again shorters feel no pain :(

2. If we dont see any reduction in the wretched algo activity, does this mean it wasnt Taconic behind them all along?

Shaf5 - being slightly pedantic, they werent issued shares they were exchanged for a bond holding in Noble. I think you probably knew that.

Neversellshell22 - aside from hopefully an improvement in sentiment, we should also see a reduction in the constant downward pressure. However, iif Taconic have just been replaced by disgruntled bondholders.....well we could be disappointed

Much to think over lol...

You're welcome mate - I should really pick one site and stick to it I guess but theres people on both who like to pick my (limited) brain lol

Im not sure what LC could actually do to stop these shares being dumped, but if she doesnt at least get the ex-bondholders in a room and see the HBR story, she deserves a mighty kick in the rear

Perhaps its a fuss about nothing, but Taconic were in the group that helped rescue Noble, so that could be the reason why they were happy to increase their short. (ie they knew it could be covered by shares from this bond deal?)

Sounds good and plausible but us PIs will be the last to know

My last post on the Noble overhang (if there is one) was on 16.09.23 at 16:42

Also.....I mustnt take the credit for discovering the Noble angle....someone else posted the original news story, and Ive just expanded on it a bit

(Sorry, cant remember the posters name....me bad)

Erm I have commented on here recently so perhaps scroll down a bit and you will find it

I posted Friday or Saturday I think in response to a comment that Noble had 'dumped' the shares mentioned in the RNS

The troube is, we suffer so much filtered bilge here over the weekend that any attempt to start sensible discussion gets buried under cr_ap from the usual suspects. Then again, maybe thats their motivation

https://www.noblegroupholdings.com/news/exchange-offer-result-announcement-2023/

so the shares werent dumped, they were used to settle a bond getting close to redemption

66.6m hbr shares swapped for a $563.5m bond. my *** packet maths suggests thats around $212m or 37.5% of the bonds par value (no doubt less after fees).

given that over 99% accepted the tender, bondholders werent optimistic of getting a better offer in cash. does beg the question if the new holders will need to sell out, or perhaps it might explain the big matched pairs of transactions we have been seeing recently??

Dont get carried away by the 6.1m UT trade that has been placed in the sell column at close of business.

I think today is one of those weird triple witching days that come round each quarter. There are some truly huge UT trades today.....Lloyds Bank 302m, Tescos 35m, BP 64m etc etc

Or alternatively, the shares Noble used to hold have been used to carry out the exchange with bondholders mentioned earlier this week.

Hopefully this will be clarified next week, but the dates rather tally up

Good closing UT trade of 1.25m at .7p over the closing offer price

Lets all hope for some follow through tomorrow, rather than attempts to pull it back down

Be interesting to see if the buyback had to be paused....probably not but you never know

With Brent at $93 we really should be expectin a break above recent highs at 260.5 (270 in pre-divi money). Ive been saying $98 based on weekly Brent charts and I see no reason to change that view

Lets just hope our scummy shorting friends arent letting this rise so they can add more shorts from a higher level. We can but hope that one day they lose their control of the price

Back over 260p in old (pre-divi) money

Surprising morning action, but welcome

People who have read this thread for a while will know that TLW has been suggested. I was just highlighting the fact that its not a good company

Time to leave it now I think

Xpo45

Erm can I politely suggest you wind your neck in and re-read what I posted. What I actually said was "any deal would have to be cheap and heavily weighted in our favour." Hardly a recommendation is it?

I also said the $1.9bn debt "is really off-putting"

I postd what I did because TLW was suggested here in the past as an M&A target. With their results out today, Im actually agreeing with you.....no way

Tullow have been mentioned as a possible M&A Target on here a few times and their results are out today

They at least managed a profit after tax (only $70m) but debt of $1.9bn is really off-putting. Much depends on performance of new Jubilee project coming on stream, and Brent holding a good level. Still, any deal would have to be cheap and heavily weighted in our favour.

Same old morning routine.....algos grab the share price and neuter any hope of gaines to start the day

Brent over $92 now but HBR acting totally unlike an oil producer.

Company is buying back just over 600k a day currently so hopefully that will lend some support during the day. What a thing to be saying when Brent having its best run in months

LOLOLOL Honest answer is I dont have a clue....I just harvest info from the RNSs when I can

I have asked more or less the same question as you on this site several times but never get any answer. Its a real gap in my knowledge that I just cant fill.....Im more than happy to state that someone is cleverer than me if they could just supply some education :)

Whatever the answer is re these swaps I never personally regard them as anything positive - just another reason for an insti to d*ck around with the price

The trouble is, as the oil price rises, our resident Chuckle Brothers, Sunak and Hunt will convince themselves that HBR are generating an ocean of returns for their greedy shareholders

They will conveniently forget that they are already taking all our profit and changing it into losses

Damn.....I really thought those troublemakers were heading for the exits

The increase in disclosable position arises almost entirely due to the creation of a new cash-settled swap for 5.43m shares due for settlement 02.04.24

Personally I think that paying higher and higher dividends (with a buyback as well) ulimately isnt the right path

Been pondering my navel and come to the conclusion that you wont get HBR treated as an income stock in my view as its inherently too risky. Id prefer to see a US listing where the focus is far more on capital returns