Member Info for NAV_Mike

Well the market says we are down 2.7p but its effectively more than that as the closing UT trade last night was another crappy one - around 1p lower than the actual closing bid price

So in reality, we are off 3.4p on a good day in the markets with Brent now over $91

Sod drilling for oil and gas, this has got utterly ridiculous. I think we can all guess what will happen on the next run of bad market performance

Well they need to do something innovative as its pretty clear the algos have a vice like grip on the price. Even with Brent heading toward $91 there is just no buying momentum

My honest concern is that the likes of Taconic are happy to hold the price or move it down a bit each day, waiting for the current buyback to end

We need a rabbit out of the hat from management but unless they can find some of this fabled M&A, I just cant see what that might be

I never said it did, but add it to the profit destroying EPL and its hardly bullish

Looks like we are going to have a 'miss out on a good market day' despite Brent holding over $90. Algos doing what they do....chipped 4p off the bid on paltry volume

Oh well HBR will probably buy back 600k today if last weeks trend continues

Before I go into ponder mode, have i got this right?

Noble have a $500m+ bond due for redemption in 2024 which presumably they are struggling to redeem

They own a fairly hefty block of HBR shares

They could be saying "we cant redeem you in cash boys, but we could settle you in HBR stock that we own"

We dont know if Taconic are one of the bondholders, but could explain why they were confident in increasing their short

Not sure how I feel about this tbh. If the bondholders want cash via any means necessary, could they dump the HBR shares they exchange for?

Or....more pessimistically do we get previous note holders in a messed up company on our register, who might be looking to dump their HBR shares to get money back?

Beetham

Very very interesting.....even late on a sunday evening

I will have to think this through tomorrow, but does this mean that if Taconic were note holders in Nobles, they could swap some of them for sufficient shares to clear their short?

Would like to see a list of noteholders if only to see if there were my hedge funds who we might not want as large shareholders in HBR?

Somewhat remiss of me but Ive only just noticed that HBR is the only notifiable short that Taconic appear to have running.

Of course they could have many that they have kept below the 0.5% limit, but HBR is the only visible biggie

I will have a look KTOTB but Im really not familiar with SQZ. What has sent you down the path of suggesting a merger could be on the cards?

I replied to Madm0nk this morning as I believe these whole 'super high volume' days are something of a fallacy. As Ive said before the trades that make up the bulk of the volume appear as apparently matched pairs. This suggests to me that its instis moving money between funds or something related to the huge swaps BoA used to have running.

Im more than happy to be proved wrong though if someone comes up with a credible alternative

Madm0nk

Volume on these out of the ordinary days has been distorted by several large matched pairs of trades. Ive no idea what they are actually are (swaps settling? instis moving between funds?) but I dont think for one minute they were trades in the normal manner. Just because ADVFN might dump them in the sell column means sod all

Yes the xdiv day was alarming. It had all the signs of a shorter attack (Taconic) or a broker sell rec (Peel Hunt), but the stock did recover and actually closed 3p above the adjusted xd price

The fact that the events calendar on the HBR sits is blank means nothing to me save for the likelihood they have a crap IR team

I posted a while back that I thought the $86 area could prove stiff resistance, but if that broke we could be on our way to $98 a barrel (this being a clear support/resistance are from March to October 22

Whilst undoubtedly good for HBRs profit *before* tax, I think at $98 a barrel, Sunak will be very disinclined to alter the EPL, and markets may get very twitchy about inflation again

Waddya think?

By closing at 247.5 bid, HBR has managed to close almost exactly on the average VWAP paid to date.

I hope thats a lucky coincidence lol

Of cours there have been two ex-dividend adjustments during this time - no idea if my figures should be adjusted to reflect that

A lot of us have filtered Jeff and his alts/cronies, now we have people in dialogue with him so his non HBR crap still appears on our post-lists

Yes dont get me wrong, given $90 Brent its crap that the share price is where it is, but compared to what I saw yesterday morning, theres been quite a turnround. In fact we are now marginally up on the pre-divi price

Having reflected on the events of yesterday, perhaps in addition to Taconic, it was clients of the broker who cut their forecast (Peel Hunt?) that added to the selling?

Stingray

By my calcs, we should hit circa $180m by close today. At current rates of purchase that should leave 11 days, but perhaps they may speed things up a little so it finishes two weeks today (ie on a Friday).

Im estimating 772.4m shares in issue by the time this buyback closes. All in all thats around 155m less than the peak figure. Very significant reduction of around 17%.....could do with some benefits being felt sooner rather than later thoughj lol

Up to 3.26% or 25.4m shares

God I hope they come a cropper....but my god they seem confident. Be interesting to see if they were adding to their short aggresively today

Yes mate but there are 2 x identical trades of 5.17m shares - just like on the day when BoA seemingly exited

I really dont know if these are genuine buys/sells or just the way big swaps are reported?

Verging on the ridiculous now....have to agree on it being a co-ordinated short attack

(which i guess we should have seen coming)

Wonder if buybacks get suspended on a big down day, or does the rule only work for rises?

Stingray

Not splitting hairs mate bit I make it 12 trading days after today before we reach the $200m mark.

Proctor

We get it....youre not a fan are you? Tell me, how much EPL does TLW pay?

Stupmy

Thanks mate - something spurred them into action at the beginning of August

Think I need to go out and get away from my screen. Just watched the bid price slowly crawl up to 237.40 only to get smashed down to mid 235s on a flurry of small algo trades.

I really think we are playing in a casino where the cards are well and truly marked